The Baltimore Ravens sit atop the AFC as the No. 1 seed currently, thanks to their 10-2 record. That makes them the team everyone wants to beat as fellow conference teams look to pick up a statement win and boost themselves up into the playoffs. The Buffalo Bills are no different in Week 14 as they look to prove themselves legitimate contenders this season.
If the Ravens are going to beat the Bills, they’ll need to keep an eye on a few things. Luckily, with one of the best analytics teams in the NFL, Baltimore likely already knows what they need to do and where they should attack. But for the rest of us without a group of highly educated stat geeks on the payroll, here are a few key stats for the Ravens to pay attention to this week.
Don’t blitz Josh Allen
According to Inside Edge, Allen has the ninth-best passer rating (97.4) when being blitzed since Week 10. Meanwhile, the Ravens have blitzed the most in the NFL over that same time.
It’s clearly worked for Baltimore as they’ve been able to harass a number of talented quarterbacks into mistakes. They’ve notched 13 sacks over the last four weeks thanks to their unique and aggressive blitzes but this appears to be the week to back off a bit.
With a fully stacked secondary and stout interior run defense, Baltimore should be able to force Allen to hold on to the football and let his relative inexperience play against him. Allen feeling the time in his head could see him throw the ball into tight coverage and make big mistakes.
The Ravens should be able to run all over the Bills
While Buffalo sports the third-best defense in the league, they have a glaring weakness on the ground. Considering the Ravens have the best rushing attack in the league in attempts, yards, touchdowns and yards-per-attempt, that doesn’t bode well for the Bills. But it’s a few key stats that stand out where we could see Baltimore attack specifically.
The Bills have allowed the third-most runs of 20-plus yards by running backs this season. A good portion of that has been due to a hot-and-cold defensive line. According to Inside Edge, Buffalo’s defensive line has 41 missed tackles this season, which ranks as the most in the NFL.
With Lamar Jackson at quarterback helping to create some indecision and misdirection, we could see the Bills struggle even more in choosing the ballcarrier and making the tackle. Of course, it seems like every week where Jackson has made some defender completely whiff on a tackle, so that already helps the Ravens’ chances of picking up some big runs.
Ravens need to attack through the air in the red zone
Baltimore should be able to run all over the Bills in this game, but it will have to be between the 20s. However, when the Ravens get into the red zone, that’s where Buffalo starts getting tougher on the ground. It’s there that the Ravens need to start throwing the football, according to the stats.
The Bills have the worst rate of hurrying quarterbacks in the red zone, which has led to the fourth-highest completion percentage in the red zone this season. Jackson should have some time to survey the field and if he’s patient, he should be able to find his wide receivers open for big plays. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the third-most passing touchdowns to wide receivers inside the 20-yard line.
