The New Orleans Saints are going into the 2020 offseason in a precarious position. They’ve assembled one of the most-talented rosters around the league, featuring star talent at nearly every position group. They also don’t have a single quarterback under contract past March. And fresh off of a painful postseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings, it’s fair to wonder whether they’re one or two big upgrades away from getting back to Super Bowl contention. It’s possible that this team has deeper-running issues that could take a while to fix.
Unfortunately, time isn’t on their side. Drew Brees should be expected to re-sign for another title run as the team’s starting quarterback, and he’ll be turning 41 next week. Many of those same Pro Bowl-bound core players are going to be due big paydays in the near future. The Saints haven’t shied away from making a splash in free agency in the past, with varying results (some are good, like Brees himself and linebacker Demario Davis. And then you have the Jairus Byrd and Brandon Browner signings), so it’s possible they go that route again.
Let’s be clear: betting everything on one blue-chip free agent pickup isn’t the route we’d like to take. The Saints got where they are now by patiently investing in their scouting and coaching staffs, carefully selecting high-upside free agents and trusting their process to develop them into studs. That’s how you sustain success in the NFL. If anything, this year feels like one where the Saints could keep their investing in-house, holding onto homegrown talent while angling to qualify for a compensatory draft pick or two next offseason.
But if the Saints are truly desperate to win a Super Bowl championship with Brees still around, and if they think a huge free agent addition is the way to get there, then these are the moves we’d advocate for.
Brandon Scherff
Scherff, 28, was voted into the Pro Bowl in three of his first five years in the NFL. He’s appeared in 65 of 80 possible games, playing 4,130 snaps during that time, and been fouled 22 times (three offsetting/declined). While he’s played right guard exclusively in the NFL, Scherff starred on the left side at both tackle an guard in college with the Iowa Hawkeyes — the position he’d fill in New Orleans.
With one-time Pro Bowler Andrus Peat on the outs in free agency, the Saints will have a hole to fill in the starting lineup at left guard. For context, Peat has also appeared in 65 of 80 regular season games, logging 3,702 snaps, drawing 24 penalties (just one offset/declined). In other words, Scherff played 428 more snaps (the equivalent of seven more games) and committed just two more fouls. Going from Peat to Scherff would be as strong an upgrade as you’ll see in the NFL, but it would carry a huge cost. Scherff wants to be the highest-paid guard in the league, and reportedly turned down a $13 million per-year contract offer from the Washington Redskins to get it.
That’s a tall ask. Salary cap management isn’t as much a concern for the Saints as other teams (general manager Mickey Loomis is comfortable with creatively manipulating contract structures to create new spending room), but it is something worth noting. The Saints have already handed out big-money deals to left tackle Terron Armstead and right guard Larry Warford, while right tackle Ryan Ramczyk has two years left on his rookie contract if the Saints pick up his option for 2021 (they will). Standout center Erik McCoy is entering the second of his four-year rookie deal. It won’t be easy, but there’s room for Scherff in the Saints’ budget.
The Risk: Scherff is already 28, and will require a market-resetting contract to acquire. He’s ended each of his last two seasons on injured reserve with a torn pectoral muscle (in 2018) and elbow and shoulder issues (in 2019). If these are connected problems, it could be a sign of his body breaking down, which would limit his availability moving forward.
The Reward: Scherff sets the pace for the rest of the NFL’s guards in pass-blocking efficiency, and his presence would do a lot to solidify an offensive line that got exposed in the playoffs by a talented Vikings front. Whether Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill, or someone else is under center the next few years, Scherff would be an excellent upgrade — when he’s healthy.
Yannick Ngakoue
The Saints pass rush was sleep at the wheel in the playoffs against Kirk Cousins. They sacked the Vikings quarterback just twice on his 33 dropbacks and landed only five hits, failing to pressure him with any consistency. The Vikings went 10-for-18 on third downs, emblematic of New Orleans’ problems in getting after the passer late in the season.
Some of that can be chalked up to injuries, with starting defensive end Marcus Davenport and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins sidelined earlier in the year. While it’s great that the Saints found some contributors among undrafted college free agents (like Shy Tuttle, Carl Granderson, and Taylor Stallworth), none of them should be on the field when the season’s on the line.
Enter Ngakoue, the Jacksonville Jaguars sack artist who Tom Coughlin alienated before he was fired. Ngakoue finished the 2019 season with 8.0 sacks and 15 hits, tying the career-low set in his 2016 rookie year. For context, those numbers would rank second-best in New Orleans behind Cameron Jordan, who led the way in sacks (15.5) and hits (25).
Ngakoue is durable; he’s played in 63 of 64 potential games (3,029 total snaps) in his four-year career, racking up 37.5 sacks and 85 hits along the way. But the way he wins is what’s enticing for the Saints. He’s a fleet-footed pass rusher who flies off the edge with his hair on fire, bending beneath blockers’ arms and turning the edge before they can even get set. The closest thing the Saints have to that is Trey Hendrickson, who has turned in fine but unspectacular play as a backup. There’s no mistaking the two of them.
The downside is that Ngakoue will be in for a big payday. Big in the sense of $17 million or so per year. There are few players with as many hides on the wall as him at his age (he’ll turn 25 in March), so if he plays his cards right, he can cash in repeatedly during the prime of his career. Maybe the Saints can bring him in on a three-year deal, which would position him for another huge free agent contract before he turns 28.
The Risk: What kind of message would it send to pay a newcomer over your defensive leader? Jordan signed a contract extension last season that averages $14.9 million per year, which would be dwarfed by any deal with Ngakoue. The good news is that the Saints have otherwise invested minimal salary cap charges along the defensive line; Rankins is playing on his fully-guaranteed fifth-year option of $7.69 million, and the only other significant contract went to nose tackle Malcom Brown, who is due $6 million in 2020. Structured carefully, an Ngakoue deal could avoid piling up on many other payouts.
The Reward: Ngakoue could be the missing piece to a Saints pass-rush unit that turned in one of the highest sack totals in team history last year. They’re so close to being a consistently great unit, but it needs someone with Ngakoue’s skills set to win specific matchups. They don’t have anyone who can crash down on a quarterback in 2.5 seconds after the snap, which he can do with regularity.
Amari Cooper
The Saints do not have a bigger roster need in 2020 than wide receiver. Michael Thomas caught 119 more passes than the next-best wideout (Ted Ginn Jr., who is a free agent), which would qualify him for first-team All-Pro recognition by itself. But as we saw in the playoffs, he can’t put the world on his shoulders forever. Saints coach Sean Payton has creatively integrated Jared Cook, and Alvin Kamara, and Taysom Hill into the passing game, but it’s still a one-man show at wide receiver. At some point all the exotic designs and trickery goes out the window, and you’ve got to just beat a team straight up.
That makes Cooper an enticing target. He’s revived his career with the Dallas Cowboys, posting the highest pace of receiving yards per game (74.3) since his rookie year with the Oakland Raiders, but it hasn’t been enough to get him the top-tier receiver contract he covets. New Orleans has already made Thomas a $100 million man, so it’s not realistic to think they can pay him that too.
So here’s the case for Cooper taking a one-year deal with the Saints. He’d feast against number-two coverage assignments with Thomas drawing most of the attention, allowing him to finally break out and get over the 1,200-yard hump (he’s come close, finishing with 1,005 to 1,189 yards in four of his five seasons). That’s the sort of production other teams need to see to justify the huge contract even the Cowboys have shied away from. With a new head coach in place in Dallas and so many other free agents to manage (including quarterback Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy staple Randall Cobb), it’s possible Cooper leaves for another fresh start.
The Risk: It’s fair to ask how much more the Saints are willing to invest at the skills positions, with Thomas on a market-setting contract and Cook ranking high among tight ends. Even if Cooper agrees to a one-year contract in the $14 million range, that’s more than the Saints have ever committed to the pass-catching corps. At the same time, they’ve never needed more from their receivers than they do now, given Brees’ aging proficiency.
The Reward: Imagine Cooper drawing single coverage across the formation from Thomas, and giving Brees a reliable, accomplished target when teams take away his favorite target. Cooper is just 25, and would turn in monster numbers in that role. It’s as close a thing to an “everyone wins” scenario as you’ll see in the free agency landscape, so long as Cooper is willing to play on a one-year mercenary contract.
