The Houston Texans, in 2018, were the example of one the NFL’s longest-running juxtapositions; a fiery offense carried by superstars that can’t score points in the red zone (20 yards from the goal). Though an aerial attack co-piloted a heroic Deshaun Watson and elite DeAndre Hopkins can cover the distance of the field, they all too often stuttered when the goal got close.
Despite possessing an offense above league average in total yards — and top-ten in rushing — and points, the Texans’ red zone efficiency was near the bottom in the NFL. According to Football Outsiders, Houston was 25th in the NFL in points per red zone visit with 4.65 and 27th in touchdowns per appearance. No matter the quarter, they struggled; as, per Sharp Football, their success rate in each quarter goes as follow: 41%, 44%, 31%, and 37% — all far below the league median.
Nearing the end of the 2018 season one thing — alongside others — became clear: the Texans couldn’t score in the red zone consistently, even with one of the NFL’s premier QB-WR duos. This weakness led to an eventual demise highlighted by a quick playoff exit, two December losses versus good teams, and a scare against the lowly Jets.
Rolling into the off-season, part of the off-season plan for the Texans must’ve revolved around improving their red zone play; but how?
Better blocking
An obvious answer lies within the offensive line. Houston’s unit featured injuries and constant rotations and struggled mightily in all facets of the game in 2018. They were at their worst in pass protection — they allowed a league-high 62 sacks to a second-year quarterback that was then coming off a torn ACL.
A starting line of (left to right) Julién Davenport, Senio Kelemete, Nick Martin, Zach Fulton, and Kendall Lamm wasn’t going to work, so the Texans scraped it. Though now-gone Brian Gaine wasn’t active in rebuilding the unit in free agency — signing an over-the-hill and injured Matt Kalil — he was in the draft. The draft community didn’t laud first and second-round picks, respectively, Tytus Howard and Max Scharping, but each boasts an impressive college resume and could start from the get-go.
Ultimately, though, Gaine could have been fired in large part due to his passiveness rebuilding the line outside of the draft. That may hold; he didn’t sign big-name blockers despite having an abundance of cap space. However, two promising rookies alongside a returning interior unit (allowed a quarter of last year’s sacks) does give hope for optimism.
Martinas Rankin, selected in the third-round in 2017, also flashed potential as a guard in his limited his snaps. He most notably allowed one sack against the menacing Philadelphia Eagles pass-rush in a playoff-atmosphere game.
The culmination of the Texans’ additions should be that of better offensive line play — which helps everywhere, including, of course, in the red zone. Whether or not they can be at least average is unknown, but all they have to do is not be historically awful to be better.
Improving the offensive line should inherently help the Texans’ red zone woes, just on the basis that Watson may be able to pass from a clean pocket for a second longer, and backs could maybe, actually, run up the gut effectively. However, the scheme and play-calling may be just as, or more, crucial.
Improvements via Bill O’Brien
Under Bill O’Brien, the Texans have notoriously built a reputation for stalling in the red zone; this isn’t a fluke. Though bad quarterbacks have affected the impression of his Houston legacy, the calls for better play-calling and schematics have been made–and are warranted.
O’Brien’s signature red zone offense isn’t pretty glamorous or creative; it’s more often than not a rush to Lamar Miller, Alfred Blue (now with the Jacksonville Jaguars), or D’Onta Foreman right up the middle, then followed by a pass.
Run-run-pass: the most predictable set of play calls in the NFL.
O’Brien’s conservative red zone play-calling can work, but not with his current roster. Their run-blocking has been so bad in recent years that even running behind duo blocks is a test of agility, burst, and awareness from backs. When he calls a pass, it’s often a play-action that defenders don’t bite on. Defenses don’t respect the run. Therefore they play the pass; why wouldn’t they?
O’Brien, and recently promoted offensive coordinator Tim Kelly — we don’t know if he’s the play-caller yet — must get creative with how they set up their red zone attack. To OB’s credit, he’s shown that he can do that; he has an extensive package of gadget plays in his arsenal, read-options Watson thrives on, and route combinations to get Hopkins into favorable match-ups.
The problem is, most of the time, O’Brien reverts to his standard two runs up the gut, then play-action, or a fade to Nuk. At some points of games, the Texans stopped trying to score from the red zone and extended their touchdown plays to the 30-45 yard range. Not ideal, even if their quarterback can do it.
The coach gets his fair share of criticism, and for a good reason. One would like to see O’Brien get more creative with his attack. Though, in favor of O’Brien, he might’ve not had the appropriate personnel carrying out his plays. The Texans played with a depleted receiving corps in 2018, didn’t have an x-factor tight end, had a quarterback that played a bit too much hero ball, and back were average — that’s all before factoring in poor blocking.
Deshaun Watson and his supporting cast must step up
Watson, by all means, was excellent in his second year as a pro, but he’s got some kinks to work out. One of the more prominent is his ability to extend a play, a little too long. The quarterback brought the Texans to the red zone several times and many times and often found a way to score, but he also stalled drives due to excessive running around in the backfield that results in a sack or lousy throw.
To Watson’s credit, he showed improvement in this area, and better blocking should help continue that, but this is one of his greatest long withstanding issues. The signal-caller often glues his eyes onto his receivers in the short area — how could you not with Hopkins? — when that doesn’t work out, he tries to improvise, often marking his demise.
Watson isn’t alone in his deficiencies in this area, the entire offense, outside of Hopkins, struggled in the red zone. However, this is easily fixable; a large part of that notion is due to an abundance of injuries to skill position players.
Outside of Hopkins, the Texans’ receiving corps lacked a consistent option in the red zone. The same shouldn’t be said for next year’s squad. The speedy Will Fuller is back and has shown marked improvement in his first three years marked as a contested catcher and creative route-runner in the short-field. Sophomore Keke Coutee returns and is expected to be utilized heavily on gadget players due to his explosiveness and speed.
Young tight ends Jordan Akins, Jordan Thomas, and Kahale Warring could help mightily come 2019. The second Jordan is the obvious answer as to why — he’s a 6-6, 248-pound former receiver with some hops. He scored four touchdowns in the red zone last year despite being underdeveloped as a rookie. Warring, the third-round pick in 2019, brings size to the table as well. The San Diego State product is a cut 6-6, 251 pounds with athleticism that pops off the table.
As for running backs, the Texans appear to be running back (get it?) a similar group as in years past. Lamar Miller, a Pro Bowler in 2018, will start and has continued to bulk up to handle the runs up the gut. Third-year D’Onta Foreman could steal snaps from him in the red zone; the now healthy former Longhorn is the epitome of “power back.”
Texans fans are hoping improvement by way of Watson and his aggressive play come, as well as health to the receiver position. The most significant question marks, in terms of red zone offense, should lie within the tight end and running back groups — neither has sure-fire red zone aces. However, if play-calling and the offensive line improve, the two should follow suit.
