Jon Gruden’s offense is special to him. Chris Simms of ProFootballTalk and previously Bleacher Report always said he sees his offenses like a Ferrari. Derek Carr is now the driver who is looking not to crash like previous quarterbacks in this system.
Gruden’s offense started with a bang in 2018, ranking in the top five in yards after four games even with the team starting 1-3. The NFL then adjusted, and there was a rough patch during the middle of the season. The Raiders losing starters to injury and trades didn’t help, but the beatdown to an awful 49ers team paints the entire picture.
He finished the season strong using more shotgun and adjusting the running game, allowing the Raiders to finish 3-4 in the last seven games. With the offense revamped weapons added through the draft and free agency, fans are expecting that momentum to continue heading into 2019.
The Raiders are primed for the next step, but does Gruden’s coaching hold them back? Let’s take a look at three adjustments Gruden needs to make for the Raiders offense to be successful.
Running shotgun out of 12 personnel (2 WRs, 1 RB, 2 TEs)
Gruden loves tight ends and rarely does he ever not have one in the field. He added two tight ends this offseason to replace the roles of Lee Smith and Jared Cook and will continue this philosophy into the 2019 season. With Gruden enamored with tight ends, he needs to become more creative with 12 and 13 personnel groupings.
The Raiders used 12 personnel on only 12 percent of their offensive snaps, which was second to 11 personnel during the 2018 season. The success rate was excellent at 60 percent as they were able to move the ball successfully. However, most of these were out of basic under-center formations.
The Raiders need to expand on this success by running more spread formations and getting athletic tight ends in space. This will also force teams to bring nickel packages onto the field and open up opportunities for the running game to continue its success in this formation. Looking at the success the Eagles have had using this personnel in shotgun, Gruden can take this personnel grouping to the next level.
Red zone play calling
In 2018, Raiders offense was solid for the most part. They finished in the top 15 in passing yards and were able to move the ball well with an overall success rate of 52 percent. The main issue was their struggles in the red zone that led to field goals instead of touchdowns.
The Raiders finished 22nd in red zone efficiency, and it kept them from winning games. The Raiders not being able to finish drives with touchdowns could mostly be put on Gruden. His play calling in this area was inadequate, to say the least, leaving points on the board or even losing possession on fourth down.
Whether it was the awful play call against the Chargers or the FB dive against the Dolphins, there are many examples of this being an area of improvement.
The best way to get better in the red zone is to use plays that fit Carr’s strengths. One of those is fade routes where Carr has always excelled inside the 20-yard line. Carr and Michael Crabtree connection on fade routes helped them secure 25 touchdowns in three seasons together.
This season using Antonio Brown in one on one situations by using 3×1 formations can help get him isolated for fades or slants. For this offense to reach its potential, it has to improve in the red zone.
Be more aggressive when leading
Gruden got a ton of flak for his thoughts on analytics and playing like it was 1998. One place where he does keep it old school is getting overly conservative with the lead. The Raiders lost two games early in the season when this approach occurred.
The most notable instance that stands out is against the Cardinals, which sparked an infamous sideline argument between Carr and Gruden.
Up 20-14 in the fourth quarter, the Raiders had a fourth-and-1 at the Cardinals 38-yard line. Instead of going for it and securing the win, Gruden elected to punt the football. The following drive the Cardinals scored and took the lead.
The same thing happened Week 2 against the Broncos when the Raiders were up 19-17. Gruden called back-to-back run plays when the passing offense’s success rate was 75% before the last play on third-and-9.
The Raiders lost that game on a field goal by Denver on the ensuing drive. Gruden cannot be afraid to crush teams and still take chances with the lead in 2019 to secure victories.
