Sir Keir Starmer is facing a consdierable challenge from Labour backbenchers as he tries to pass his controversial welfare reform package.
A growing number of Labour politicians are expected to rebel against the planned welfare reforms when they are put to a crunch vote in the House of Commons next week.
The reforms target people who receive personal independence payment (Pip) in the UK, the main disability payment that people can receive in England if they have a disability or mental health condition.
Under the proposed reforms, the Labour government planned to save billions of pounds while reducing the number of people eligible for the daily living payment — a plan that’s faced increasing scrutiny from among Labour’s own ranks.
Another part of the welfare reform package includes cutting incapacity benefit rates, which are usually paid through Universal Credit to those who can’t work because of their health.
Hundreds of thousands of people risk losing the welfare funding if the package is passed, and fear that a vital lifeline is being taken away during a soaring cost-of-living crisis.
However, without amendments, health-related benefit spending is predicted to increase by billions in the coming years which has prompted concern among those in government.
Despite this, many MPs oppose the current reforms and call for amendments to the package before it is brought to a vote on Tuesday, which Starmer has seemingly agreed to discuss with rebels.
A backbencher told PA news agency: “A lot of people have been saying they’re upset about this for months. To leave it until a few days before the vote, it’s not a very good way of running the country.”
So as it stands, what are we looking at when it comes to the numbers?
£5bn in reduced government spending
A lot of MPs believe the UK’s welfare system is in urgent need of reform, which has eventually led us here.
Those backing the reform package claim that the government can save up to £5bn across the next decade if the cuts are brought in.
They hope this will encourage more people to return to work, while reducing welfare spending that some fear is getting out of control.
800,000 people affected by cuts
It’s thought that around 3.7 million people are currently claiming PIP, which is up from 2.1 million people in 2019.
However, the Labour government is attempting to slash government funding by effectively streamlining the process and cutting out some people’s eligibility.
Nearly 800,000 disabled people may be impacted by this cut by 2030 if it goes ahead.
Four or more points required
PIP claimants are currently scored between zero and 12 based on their ability to carry out everyday tasks like preparing food and washing, with 12 being the most severe ranking. There are currently 10 tasks in this assessment, which all receive varying points.
A health professional usually carries out this assessment, which determines how difficult people find it to perform such tasks due to disability or health conditions.
The new system would require claimants to receive at least four points for at least one item to qualify for the daily living element of PIP, rather than a total of points across a number of different sections.
It means that people who suffer minor disabilities that impact many different parts of their life may miss out on the payment if the disability isn’t ‘severe’ enough in one section of the assessment.
13 weeks until payments withdrawn
According to the Department of Work and Pensions, recipients will have 13 weeks after the reassessment before payments are removed under the current proposals.
It’s unclear at this point in what state the reform will be passed, but under this guideline it gives disabled people just over three months to find alternative income.
According to Standout CV, it takes nearly four months on average for Brits to find a job in the current jobs market.
250,000 people forced into poverty
Earlier this year, the Labour government conducted an assessment of its planned reform package, which revealed alarming findings about the number of people who could slip into poverty because of this reform.
“We estimate there will be an additional 250,000 people (including 50,000 children) in relative poverty after Spring Statement 2025 health and disability benefit reforms” it read.
The findings resulted in some Labour MPs publicly declaring that they would not back the reform package.
£217.26 a month
Aside from PIP payments, the incapacity benefit that’s paid within universal credit will be frozen and halved for new applicants under the proposed reports.
This means people who are applying for incapacity benefit will receive £217.26 a month, while people who have previously signed up will continue to receive £423.27 until 2027.
It’s thought this new payment system may impact around 3 million people by the end of the decade, according to Community Care.
126 Labour backbenchers revolt
At least 126 Labour backbenchers have backed a move which would essentially stop the bill moving through Parliament in its current state.
Starmer is reportedly trying to quash the rebellion by working toward concessions that may appeal to the rebels, such as changing the points system and potential amendments to the healthcare benefit that’s included in universal credit.
Addressing the pushback, Starmer conceded: “I know colleagues across the house are eager to start fixing that, and so am I, and that all colleagues want to get this right, and so do I. We want to see reform implemented with Labour values of fairness. That conversation will continue in the coming days, so we can begin making change together on Tuesday.”
While Starmer seems keen to press ahead with Tuesday’s vote, it’s unclear at this point whether he’ll get enough backing.
£72.3 billion
This is the amount of money that the government has forecast it will spend on working-age adults claiming health and disability benefits by 2030, even after the welfare reforms.
This figure - still a considerable increase compared to numbers from 2023/24 - comes from a report by the Office for Budget Responsibility in March 2025, which claims to have incorporated welfare reforms into its forecast.
