21 for 2021 College Football Topics, No. 20: The five winningest programs who haven’t made the College Football Playoff.
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21 for 2021 College Football Topics
21: 21 Thoughts, Wishes, Hopes
Off the top of your head, how many teams have made the College Football Playoff?
There have only been seven of these things, and with four teams getting into each one, that means just 28 spots have been available.
However, only 11 teams were able to get past the bouncer, and only four schools – Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and LSU – have won it.
Florida State, Georgia, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Washington – that’s it. Those are the only seven schools outside of the four who won it to get in.
That means only 8% of the teams playing college football have been able to play for the national championship only the last seven years.
As the equivalent, imagine if only 28 college basketball programs played in the NCAA Tournament over the last seven years. (Actually, that’s how it should be, but that’s for another day.)
While expansion is an obvious necessity – it’s about getting the opportunity – the exclusivity makes the College Football Playoff the least-gimmicky post-season in all of sports.
Say what you will, but there’s no fluke factor. You can’t luck your way into a College Football Playoff national title, and that makes it so strong – there were a whole lot of great teams that weren’t able to get in.
Which programs have won the most games and had the most success in the seven-year College Football Playoff era without playing in the tournament?
NEXT: The Group of Five stars
6. The Group of Five stars
Let’s begin by saying the quiet part out loud.
The Group of Five programs don’t have any real shot of getting into the College Football Playoff. And why? They don’t play enough great teams – aka Power Five programs – even if they have a great non-conference schedule.
A team from the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt would have to 1) go unbeaten, 2) dominate from start to finish, and 3) destroy at least two brand name Power Five teams.
Here are the 50-win star of stars among the Group of Fivers over the last seven years.
Georgia Southern (50 wins) – The Eagles entered the FBS level when the CFP era started, had a few down moments – going 2-10 in 2017 – but have been solid overall.
Arkansas State (51 wins) – Even with an awful 4-7 2020, the Red Wolves have won a whole lot of games in the CFP era.
Air Force (52 wins) – A bit underappreicated, the Falcons have been a steady rock. They’re here despite playing just six games – going 3-3 – last season.
Houston (52 wins) – This is why the pressure is on Dana Holgorsen. The Cougars have shown they can be in the thick of things.
Louisiana (52 wins) – It was good before, but Billy Napier has taken the program to another level over the last few years.
Navy (53 wins) – Navy went 3-7 last season, but Ken Niumatalolo has been able to ramp up the wins over the last seven years.
Western Michigan (53 wins) – The big run was in 2016 when the PJ Fleck-led team went 13-1 on the way to the Cotton Bowl. The program, though, has been consistently terrific.
Cincinnati (54 wins) – 31 wins over the last three seasons have put the spotlight on the 2021 Bearcats to make a whole lot of noise.
BYU (55 wins) – Don’t tell BYU that it’s on a list of Group of Five programs, but with its independent status, even one loss is a CFP deal-breaker.
Louisiana Tech (56 wins) – The Bulldogs have never been close to the CFP discussion, but they’ve won a whole lot of games under Skip Holtz.
UCF (56 wins) -The 0-12 2015 season drags down the overall total, but also shows just how strong the program has been in the other years.
Marshall (58 wins) – The Thundering Herd haven’t beaten a whole lot of great teams to ever be seriously considered for the CFP, but they’ve won a whole lot of games.
Toledo (56 wins) – Even though the program should be more dominant in MAC play – it needs to win more championships – it’s been able to be a steady force.
San Diego State (60 wins) – Brady Hoke still has to prove the success can continue for a program that consistently rolled under Rocky Long.
Memphis (65 wins) – It made the NewYear’s Six in 2019 and came back with a strong eight-win 2020. It’s been a consistent AAC powerhouse.
Boise State (69 wins) – The program has won ten games or more 17 times in the last 22 years, and it didn’t get there last season only because it played just seven games.
Appalachian State (70 wins) – Nah, the Mountaineers didn’t even play for the 2020 Sun Belt title, but they’ve been amazing since moving up into the FCS world.
NEXT: Power Five Programs that missed the 60-win cut
4. Power Five Programs That Missed The 60-Win Cut – and still haven’t made the College Football Playoff
You have to average around 8.5 wins a year to get into the club of top teams that have yet to get into the College Football Playoff. Here are some notable big-time programs that haven been able to get there.
Texas (48 wins) – Just 16 wins from 2014 to 2016 drag down the Longhorns. There was just one ten=win season in the College Football Playoff era.
Northwestern (51 wins) – Two Big Ten Championship appearances, four bowl wins in the last five seasons, and two ten-win seasons – yeah, it’s a power program now.
Miami (54 wins) – There’s been a whole lot of mediocrity around a nice two-year stretch of 19 wins in 2016 and 2017.
Michigan (54 wins) – The Jim Harbaugh era really has been a wee bit better than it gets credit for, but the two-win 2020 campaign was a disaster.
Auburn (56 wins) – Averaging eight wins a season with a few wins over Alabama weren’t enough to keep Gus Malzahn around.
USC (56 wins) – This isn’t really fair. The Trojans deserve to be in the top four of the Best Programs To Not Make The College Football Playoff, but it only played six games last season.
Texas A&M (57 wins) – It feels like it’s just a matter of time under Jimbo Fisher. The great 2020 was a huge boost.
Utah (58 wins) – The Utes don’t get the credit they deserve under Kyle Whittihgham. They were a win over Oregon in the 2019 Pac-12 Championship away from – probably – getting into the CFP.
TCU (58 wins) – The 2014 team got totally hosed out of a final spot in the CFP top four, and it hasn’t been close since. However, three seasons with 11 or more wins boosted the overall total.
Florida (59 wins) – The Dan Mullen era has been very, very strong, but don’t forget that the Gators made two straight SEC Championship games under Jim McElwain.
And now, the best four Power Five programs to not make the College Football Playoff, starting with …
NEXT: Penn State Nittany Lions
T2. Penn State Nittany Lions (60 wins)
The recruiting has been strong, the wins have been there, and the team has flirted with the College Football Playoff … sort of.
Penn State might have had the worst start to a season in the program’s history – going 0-5 last year – but closed out with four straight wins to get in the 60-win club and stay among the top programs to not make the College Football Playoff.
– 2021 Penn State Schedule Analysis
Remember, James Franklin took over when there was talk of a Death Penalty as part of the NCAA sanctions, and he built the powerhouse back up. The Nittany Lions won 11 games with a Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl appearance in 2016, followed it up with 11 wins and a Fiesta Bowl victory in 2017, and managed 11 wins and a Cotton Bowl victory in 2019.
It’s been one of the few programs that’s been able to hang with – and actually beat – Ohio State in the CFP era, and it’s been consistently great right up until the rough start to last season.
Call 2020 an aberration – Penn State should’ve won the Indiana game – and even then, again, the team came up with four gut-check wins to close strong.
NEXT: Oklahoma State Cowboys
T2. Oklahoma State Cowboys (60 wins)
No one really thinks about Oklahoma State as a power program with that other big Oklahoma school just a short drive away and with Texas sucking up so much of the Big 12 oxygen. Not getting to a Big 12 Championship in the CFP era hasn’t helped.
– 2021 Oklahoma State Schedule Analysis
However, Mike Gundy has come up with a ton of wins at a steady pace – only Gary Patterson, Kirk Ferentz, Nick Saban, and Dabo Swinney have more wins at the schools they respectively coach.
Very, very quietly, Oklahoma State has four ten-win seasons since 2014, but again, problems against Oklahoma and a few key bowl losses have knocked the perception down a bit.
Last year might have been disappointing considering the talent that was back, but it beat Iowa State, took down Miami in the Cheez-It Bowl, and the team just keeps on cranking out winning seasons.
NEXT: Iowa Hawkeyes
T2. Iowa Hawkeyes (60 wins)
And they were so, so, so close.
The 2015 team was a defensive stop against Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship away from going to the College Football Playoff – and being annihilated by Alabama – in a rock-steady run under Kirk Ferentz.
Even after a controversy-plagued offseason, the 2020 team went 6-2 with a win over Wisconsin – losing its two games by a total of five points – coming off 19 wins over the previous two seasons.
– 2021 Iowa Hawkeyes Schedule Analysis
No, the style might not be anything scintillating, and yes, Iowa hasn’t been close to the College Football Playoff other than that 2015 season, but every once in a while it rises up and shows the world that it’s still one of the better programs going.
The 55-24 win over Ohio State changed the landscape of the 2017 college football season, and the 49-24 win over USC in the 2019 Holiday Bowl was impressive, but …
There are just enough losses to put Iowa in the land of the very, very above average.
It also doesn’t help that 2015 was the lone Big Ten title appearance while Northwestern has gone to two in the last three years, and then there’s that other program in the Big Ten West …
NEXT: Wisconsin Badgers
1. Wisconsin Badgers (67 wins)
Wisconsin has been really, really, really close to getting into the College Football Playoff, but it can’t find its way through, over, or around the Ohio State brick wall.
Forget about the strange 2020 season – the team was crushed by COVID early on, injuries later, and was never able to get going even with a bowl win over Wake Forest to close things out. Before that, the Badgers had five double-digit win seasons in six years with four Big Ten Championship appearances and three New Year’s Six bowl games.
That’s nice and all, but there’s enough of a talent gap to keep it from getting past Ohio State and finally into the final top four – and that’s assuming everything else goes right.
– 2021 Wisconsin Schedule Analysis
The latest recruiting class was fantastic, and the overall system still works, but 2021 will be vital to show that 2020 was just a blip and this is still the star of the Big Ten West.
If that can happen, and if the team can get back to dominating with the ground game, can ride Graham Mertz and do more with the passing attack, and if the defense, time of possession stat, and several other key areas can be among the best in college football, Wisconsin might just have the right formula to even win a game if it can get to the CFP.
It has to get by Ohio State first.
