21 for 2021 College Football Topics, No. 18: Five teams that should have worse seasons in 2021 after a fantastic 2020.
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21 for 2021 College Football Topics
21: 21 Thoughts, Wishes, Hopes
20: 5 Best Programs To Not Make CFP
19: 5 Teams That Will Rebound
Sometimes everything works just right.
2020 might have been a horrific year all the way around, but for a few college football teams and conferences, at least the production on the field was something special.
Sometimes it took everything to align correctly, and sometimes the teams were just that good. However, no matter how good a program it is – like the five on last year’s list: LSU, Minnesota, Baylor, Utah and Virginia – it’s almost impossible to get all of the same breaks, schedule timing, and amazing plays to recreate the magic.
The teams on this list are going to be very, very good, but all it takes is an extra loss, a key injury, or something else that might be off to take a step back.
Going from the lowest-ranked team in the 2020 final rankings to the highest, starting with a catch-all …
5. Sun Belt teams
2020 FInal RankingS
Coastal Carolina (11-1): AP 14, Coaches 14
Louisiana (10-1): AP 15, Coaches 16
What Made 2020 Special?
It all started with a bang, and it never stopped.
If anything, the top Sun Belt teams were underrated considering Coastal Carolina beat Kansas at Kansas to start the season, Arkansas State beat Kansas State at Kansas State, and in the key win, Louisiana hit Iowa State 31-14.
It was a magical breakthrough year for the conference – helped by Coastal Carolina’s win over BYU in what might have been the best game of the season.
Coastal Carolina went from being picked by some dopey college football pundits – hand sheepishly raised – to be among the Sun Belt’s worst teams, but the offensive style was unstoppable for most of the year. Louisiana has some Power Five program’s next head coach in Billy Napier – how is he still around? – with a loaded offensive team, and others like Appalachian State were fantastic, too.
The conference had a wonderful bowl season – App State, Georgia Southern, and Georgia State all romped – just about everyone in the conference other than ULM had something positive to point to, and …
Why 2021 Will Be A Bit Worse, Schedule Part 1
– 2021 Sun Belt Football Schedule, Top Games
It’ll be hard to sustain.
The big problem is attention with even one loss meaning that proper credit won’t be given.
Put it this way (sorry, Cyclone fans, I promise this is the last time I’ll do this): Louisiana beat Iowa State by 17 points in Ames, and the only other loss on the year for the Ragin’ Cajuns was against Coastal Carolina. Iowa State finished ninth in both polls, and Louisiana was 15th in the AP and 16th in the Coaches. The respect just wasn’t there.
That’s not to say that Coastal Carolina won’t pull a threezie on Kansas by winning a third straight year in the series, but it has to go to Buffalo, Arkansas State, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern.
Appalachian State has the ability to beat Miami, but it’s conference schedule isn’t a breeze with road dates at Georgia State and Louisiana, and the Ragin’ Cajuns have to go to Texas.
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Schedule, Part 2
There will be moments when the Sun Belt rises up and rocks. Again, the teams are going to be just that good, they all return a ton of talent, and they’ll all receive plenty of love and respect in the preseason rankings.
But again, just one loss by anyone screws up the national love, attention, and focus.
If one of the good teams slips by a Washington if you’re Arkansas State, or a Baylor if everything works right for Texas State, or a North Carolina if Georgia State is wonderful, or an Arkansas if it can’t stop the Georgia Southern option, there’s a strong enough league to have landmines all across the board.
NEXT: Indiana Hoosiers
4. Indiana Hoosiers
2020 FInal RankingS
AP 12, Coaches 13
Final Record: 6-2
What Made 2020 Special?
The Big Ten had to change its own rules to keep Indiana out of the Big Ten Championship … in football.
Okay, so it was the right move since Ohio State won the head-to-head battle with the Hoosiers, but still, IU was good enough and relevant enough to be the second-best team in the Big Ten …
Again, in football, considering they walloped the Michigan State team that beat Northwestern.
It would’ve been a great year for IU football if it just went bowling for the second straight season under Tom Allen – and better if the program could win one of these post-season things for the first time since 1991, but I’m riffing here – and it would’ve been a great season if it beat Penn State, or Michigan, or Michigan State, or Wisconsin.
It did all of that, and now …
Why 2021 Will Be A Bit Worse: Returning Talent
Indiana won’t have a problem with returning talent. Actually, it should be even better if QB Michael Penix Jr’s injured knee is just fine for the season.
The team is getting a little help from the transfer portal, star WR Ty Fryfogle returns, almost all of the top tacklers are back, and there’s a whole lot to love on both lines to expect the team to be even more dangerous and competitive.
So what’s the problem?
Why 2021 Will Be A Bit Worse: Schedule
– 2021 Indiana Football Schedule Analysis
We’re all adults here. We can speak freely.
Of course Penix didn’t get in for the two-point conversion to beat Penn State 36-35 in overtime, but the ruling was that he did. That’s what we call in the business a big break – the 2020 season would’ve been a whole lot different if that call went the other way.
Penn State is going to be stronger. Michigan will be better. Michigan State should be more competitive, Ohio State is Ohio State, and …
Indiana isn’t beating the Nittany Lions AND the Wolverines AND the Spartans again. It might win one or two, but there’s that, there’s the opener at Iowa, there’s Cincinnati coming to town (uh oh), the Penn State and Michigan games are on the road, Minnesota is a tough game, and everything finishes at Purdue.
The Hoosiers can still be fantastic and yet 8-4 would be a wee step back.
NEXT: BYU Cougars
3. BYU Cougars
2020 FInal RankingS
AP 11, Coaches 11
Final Record: 11-1
What Made 2020 Special?
Oh was that fun.
From the opening drive on that Monday night 55-3 blowout over Navy – and it could’ve been much, much worse – right on through the dominant 49-23 Boca Raton Bowl win over UCF, BYU was a blast.
It ripped through teams at will, and right up until the phenomenal game at Coastal Carolina – which the program took on at the last possible moment and deserved all due credit for wanting to compete – in a 22-17 loss that came down to the final throw, it was a terrific 11-1 year.
However, while the team was fantastic, there was one key element to the 2020 season, and BYU had nothing to do with it …
More on the schedule in a moment.
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Returning Talent
Start with not having the starting (insert mediocre NFL team, here, most likely the New York Jets) quarterback around.
Zach Wilson was brilliant, and now it’ll be a fight to replace him. BYU will be fine at the position, but it doesn’t have another Wilson.
Three starters are expected to be gone off the offensive line, seven of the top ten tacklers are done, and …
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Schedule
– 2021 BYU Football Schedule Analysis
The schedule.
The 2020 Cougars were supposed to play Utah and Michigan State and Arizona State and Minnesota and Missouri and Stanford, and while they would’ve won their share of those, that was a killer compared to the slate they had to hustle together.
Again, it’s not like BYU didn’t try, but it didn’t face a Power Five program.
UTSA, Boise State, and UCF were the only teams among all of the Group of Fivers on the 12-game slate that finished with a winning record.
Again, BYU will win some of the bigger games, but this year it gets Arizona, Utah, Arizona State, Boise State (again), Baylor, Washington State, Virginia, Georgia Southern (watch out on the road), and USC.
NEXT: Northwestern Wildcats
2. Northwestern Wildcats
2020 FInal RankingS
AP 10, Coaches 10
Final Record: 7-2
What Made 2020 Special?
The team really was that good.
The defense really was that good. The style of play really was that good. QB Peyton Ramsey was good enough, the lines were terrific, and the team had a way of controlling just about every game.
The offense that did a whole lot of nothing in 2019 came out roaring in a 43-3 win over Maryland, the team pulled out a late win over Iowa, and it just kept on winning, including a five-takeaway win over a Wisconsin team that couldn’t get out of its own way.
It’s Northwestern, and it got to the Big Ten Championship for the second time in three seasons, and it finished up with a Citrus Bowl win over Auburn.
Yeah, Northwestern really was that good.
Why 2021 Will Be A Bit Worse: Returning Talent
Ramsey isn’t around, but South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski might be an upgrade at quarterback.
Cam Porter looks like a potentially special running back, but the team lost some parts to the transfer portal. Most of the top receivers are gone along with a few offensive linemen, and while Chris Bergin is back in the linebacking corps, Paddy Fisher and Blake Gallagher will be sorely missed.
Toughest of all might be the loss of retired defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz. Of course, Pat Fitzgerald isn’t about to let his defense slip, but …
Why 2021 Will Be A Bit Worse: Schedule
– 2021 Northwestern Football Schedule Analysis
The schedule should be more challenging.
There’s still no Ohio State on the regular season slate, but the Wildcats have to go play an improved Michigan in Ann Arbor. The Wisconsin game is in Camp Randall, and going to Nebraska won’t be a breeze.
Overall, the team will be just fine. It’ll go bowling, and it’ll have a few moments when it does that voodoo that it does so well to pull off a big win or three, but – like in the loss to Michigan State last year – there will be just enough losses to not take the West.
At this point, not going to the Big Ten Championship is a step back.
NEXT: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2020 FInal Ranking
AP 5, Coaches 5
Final Record: 10-2
What Made 2020 Special?
Notre Dame went to the College Football Playoff.
So what if it got rocked by an otherworldly Alabama team? The Irish got to the big show for a second time, and they played in the conference championship (so what if it got rocked in that, too) as their friends with benefits relationship with the ACC blossomed into something more meaningful.
They were 1-1 against Clemson, had the wildly fun overtime win in the showcase game in South Bend, and once again, the program proved that it belongs in the high-rent floor just below the swanky penthouses occupied by Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State.
Why 2021 Will Be A Bit Worse: Returning Talent
Brian Kelly has been able to replace parts without a problem over the years, but there’s just enough missing to not hit the ridiculously high bar of the CFP.
Ian Book was a terrific college quarterback, but he wasn’t Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields. Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan isn’t a first round pro prospect, either.
The overall talent level on the team is more than fine, the lines are good, Kyle Hamilton might be the best safety in college football, and the running backs should be great, but leading receiver Javon McKinley is done and there might not be any way to replace everything that LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah did.
Why 2021 Will Be A Bit Worse: Schedule
– 2021 Notre Dame Football Schedule Analysis
The Irish were able to beat Clemson and North Carolina in the regular season, but the rest of the 2020 ACC schedule wasn’t anything amazing. On the plus side, they miss the Tigers and Miami.
However, they have to go to Florida State. That shouldn’t be an issue talent-wise, but Tallahassee isn’t exactly cool and crisp in early September.
They also have to play North Carolina and go to Virginia and Virginia Tech. Both of those are a problem.
Purdue is dangerous, the date with Wisconsin in Chicago is a big concern, and Cincinnati is a massive threat when it comes to South Bend right after the Irish deal with getting beaten on by the Badgers.
Oh yeah, and the USC game is back. That’s at home, but the Stanford game isn’t.
Again, on a talent basis, Notre Dame is good enough to beat everyone on the slate. However, all it takes is one key loss to make the College Football Playoff a tough call, and two ends any hope.
21 for 2021 College Football Topics
21: 21 Thoughts, Wishes, Hopes
20: 5 Best Programs To Not Make CFP
19: 5 Teams That Will Rebound
