If you build it…
While those now-infamous whispers were initially echoing from the baseball heavens via Shoeless Joe Jackson to a confused Kevin Costner in Field of Dreams, they resonate a very topical reality in today’s baseball landscape. As MLB revenues top the $10 billion mark, with local television deals seemingly attainable (and working), many cities would like to be the ones voicing such promises.
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has not shied away from talking about expanding both in the US and internationally, either. And, with the premise that adding more teams will add more revenue—while, don’t forget, playing into the back-and-forth tactics of the CBA—the idea of expansion is very possible.
Of course, there are difficulties to consider—a defining difference from the NFL and NBA: For every new franchise that comes into the league, if there’s a minor league team in the area…well, it’s been lovely, but you gotta go!
Still, expansion in the MLB isn’t “if” it’s “when and where?”.
Here’s a look at 21 cities with a population, market size, and location that could put them in the on-deck circle.
Orlando
Orlando tops the list—mainly because it’s recently topped the MLB expansion headlines. Orlando Magic co-founder, Pat Williams, has become the face championing to get an MLB franchise in Central Florida. Although baseball in Florida doesn’t have the most celebrated PowerPoint presentation, that isn’t to say a team near Disney World would be a disaster.
Orlando is a top 20 television market with a metro area of over 2.5 million people. Nielsen’s 2020 DMA (Designated Market Area) rankings have Orlando’s marketing reach at 18th. With someone holding the financial status like Williams leading the charge, it’s possible the MLB would not brush this off as a mere publicity bake sale. (Williams, ironically, would like the team name to be the Orlando Dreamers.)
Odds: 7 out of 10
Las Vegas
Las Vegas, like a few other cities on this list, would help alleviate some of the alignment confusion among the MLB divisions (See: Houston, AL West). Of course, Vegas is a growing sports town too, with the NHL already doing well and the Oakland Raiders getting ready to move there in the new decade. Vegas also holds one built-in element that other cities do not have: A continuous flow of money-spending consumers, looking for a hot ticket while they are in town.
The market reach is somewhat concerning, though—two spots below Cincinnati at 39—and the current field situation presents a problem: Does the city somehow add on to the Triple-A park (currently part of the Oakland A’s system) that was just built in 2018? Or do they turn a blind eye to the money spent there and go with the “Hey, the house always wins!” slap. Regardless, I think an MLB park would need a roof to be successful, attendance-wise.
Odds: 7 out of 10
Charlotte
Charlotte is an untapped, sprawling region for the MLB. A city that has a metro population over 2.5 million, and has got the big-business economy that would certainly be able to invest in a new franchise and all the financial bells and whistles that come with it. Surprisingly, the closest MLB options are Atlanta and D.C., and in a state that’s ranked seventh in baseball popularity, not having an MLB franchise seems…odd. Factor in Charlotte’s marketing reach (ranked 21st), and it’s basically looking at a pitch right down the middle for strike three!
One obstacle, though: The White Sox Triple-A affiliate, the Charlotte Knights, have a brand-newish field that was built in 2014. Like Vegas, that’s not something the city can just cover with a newspaper while constructing a new park.
Odds: 7 out of 10
Montreal
Montreal and the MLB are back in the news lately, thanks to the Washington Nationals—the post-evacuation franchise created after Montreal split town for the start of the 2005 season. I guess you don’t know what you got…till it wins a World Series.
No shame for the Expos, though, as interest for the team back in the early 2000s was dwindling, quickly, and teetered on embarrassing. But a second go-round for Montreal might be possible. It is still a gigantic market, second to only Toronto in Canada, and has the geographic location that could grab markets in Upstate New York. Rumors that some of Montreal’s big-wig investment types have their collective eyes set on the Peel Basin, where a new stadium would be built.
Whether that means for a new team—or as a timeshare for the Tampa Bay Rays—remains to be seen.
Odds: 6 out of 10
Raleigh/Durham
Perhaps if there’s too much reconfiguring needed to make the MLB work in Charlotte, then the Raleigh/Durham area would be a solid fit. In fact, it might be the best fit. The market reach is ranked in the top 30, with over one million people in the targeted area. That’s more substantial than San Diego, Kansas City, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati. When you look at the triangle that includes Durham and Chapel Hill, the number jumps to over two million.
The area is also one of the wealthiest, too, so, you know, cha-ching!
Again, professional baseball makes sense in North Carolina. There’s history—yes, the Durham Bulls are still around, conjuring images of Nuke Laloosh and Crash Davis—and there’s enough interest that it’s nearly a no-brainer.
Odds: 6 out of 10
Portland
There are some logical arguments for why Portland would be a solid fit. The city’s population ranks 25th among US cities, lager than baseball towns like Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Minneapolis, Anaheim, and Atlanta, and Nielsen ranks it 22nd for market reach. Plus, it’s a city that has an incredible baseball history. The Portland Mavericks, an Independent club back in the 1970s, owned by Bing Russell—father of Kurt Russell—was a ragtag bunch that included MLB outcast, Jim Bouton.
Perhaps Kurt, Goldie, and the Russell camp would like to give it another go?
Like Vegas, Portland’s inclusion in the MLB would also help realign some of the wacky locations within the divisions (did you see where Houston (AL West) is located yet?).
Odds: (weather permitting) 6 out of 10
Indianapolis
Often overlooked when it comes to expansion, Indianapolis could be a market that the MLB finds appealing. Indy is the 17th-largest city, ahead of Boston, Seattle, Denver, and Washington, D.C. It’s a top 25 market according to the new Nielsen DMA rankings and has proven its a great sports town.
The proximity to Cincinnati could be an issue, however. And the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate, the Indianapolis Indians, would need to find a new home—and the field, constructed in 1996, would expectedly get demolished. But still, with a metro population of two-plus million people, who are stuck rooting for the Reds, it wouldn’t be too far-fetched to see investors in the area willing to make their “pitch.”
Odds: 5.5 out of 10
Nashville
The Music City sits in an interesting MLB location, one that wouldn’t overstep the television markets of other organizations while politely pulling an audience from teams like the Braves, Cardinals, Royals, and even as far away as the White Sox and Cubs.
Nashville is a growing market, too, with tons of capital to support a new club and hasn’t wrinkled the resume with any possible misfires—the NHL’s Predators and the NFL’s Titans are thriving. The city is 24th-largest in the US and sits in the top 30 of Nielsen’s DMA.
Alas, the Nashville Sound—the Triple-A affiliate for the Rangers—is currently there, which would pose an issue. The field’s location is also historical, in the same space where baseball has been played in Nashville for over 100 years. Of course, a few bulldozers and some relocation notices would simplify the problem, but nonetheless, it is a problem.
Odds: 5.5 out 10
Mexico City
Baseball is immensely popular in Mexico, and all three major professional sports—MLB, NBA, NFL—have taken steps to showcase its product there. The MLB had six games at Estadio de Beisbol Monterrey in 2019, including a few spring training matchups, and will continue in 2020 with games scheduled at El Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu. It’s no huge secret that all the leagues would love to figure out a way to get a foothold in a market as vast as Mexico’s—Monterrey has over a million, and Mexico City is near nine million alone. But, it’s also no secret that travel concerns are an issue.
The sprinkling of MLB games are a smart way to test the waters without taking a nosedive from the highest cliff, though, and could eventually add enough confidence that the MLB becomes a staple in Mexico.
Odds: 5 out of 10
Buffalo
Buffalo is a smaller market with a 52nd-ranked Nielsen DMA, but it’s also a sports town with loyal fan bases. Both the NFL’s Bills and NHL’s Sabres have been supported by the city—even when both are or were terrible—and that type of consistency could be presented as a significant plus when considering an MLB franchise. The metro population, making up the Western NY area, is over a million, so the prospect of television deals aren’t obsolete either. Add in the must-see rivalry across the border against Toronto, the compelling pull from all of Upstate New York’s allegiances, and you have yourself a ballgame!
The weather, of course, can’t be ignored. But, if Minnesota can make it work, then so could Buffalo.
Odds: 4 out of 10
Birmingham
Although Birmingham is a small city, sitting outside the top 100, the metro population is over a million, and the market reach is ranked 44th. Alabama is one of the most populous states not to have a professional team—while football rules the day in such SEC country, baseball could be a viable option for a growing city like Birmingham.
Looking to the east, you’d probably have more than a few Braves execs waiting to shower you with disapproving stares. Still, other than that, it’s an open market that has real pioneering opportunities for fan bases and television deals.
Odds: 3 out of 10
Columbus
Professional baseball in Ohio’s capital isn’t anything new. The Columbus Clippers is a minor league organization that has been around since 1977, providing nine innings of entertainment from the Pirates to the Yankees to the Washington Nationals and the Cleveland Indians. Currently ranked 14th in the US, Columbus is an expanding metropolis, with area and wealth to support an MLB franchise.
Would Cincinnati and Cleveland go along with it? Probably not. But it would make for a fun series they could call the “Pit Stop.”
The biggest issue, however, is that Columbus falls into a rare category of Large City with a Small Television Market: Nielsen ranks it 34th. Although that’s better than Cincy, it might not be enough for those lucrative sports television contracts to come rolling in.
Odds: 3 out of 10
San Antonio
San Antonio is a huge city—in the top 10 in the US—with a climate more welcoming of baseball than other areas that need to think about, you know, snow and ice. The Spurs have done well there, and with more extensive cooperations such as USAA calling the Southern Texas city home, it wouldn’t be unthinkable for the MLB to put a franchise there.
Like Columbus—and actually even more eye-opening—San Antonio’s market reach isn’t overwhelmingly impressive. Tucked between Salt Lake City and Kansas City, sits San Antonio, at number 31, well below where you’d expect a city of that size to be. The Triple-A affiliate for the Brewers is currently there, but the stadium isn’t anything close to others when it comes to closing the doors.
The real question would be if Houston and Texas would be willing to open theirs.
Odds: 2.5 out of 10
Albuquerque
In between cities like Baltimore and Atlanta, population-wise, Albuquerque could be attractive to the MLB—not mention, it would be the first major sports league in the state of New Mexico. Albuquerque has a decent reach in the market, ranked by Nielsen in the top 50 (#46), and baseball has proven to be a well-attended attraction. The Isotopes, the city’s minor league team, had some 600,000 attendees in last season. Pretty impressive loyalty, considering the city’s metro is only around 900,000.
Odds: 2.5 out of 10
Salt Lake City
Ranked above baseball towns like Kansas City, Milwaukee and Cincinnati, Salt Lake City could be an enticing market for the MLB. Located in an area that doesn’t tread on any MLB organization’s turf, Utah’s largest city makes for a nice split between San Francisco and Oakland to the west, the Dodgers, Angels and Padres to the southwest, the Rockies in the east, and the Diamondbacks to the south.
The minor league team, the Salt Lake Bees, calls the city home—and the stadium provides one of the best views in all of baseball. Renovations to make room for extra capacity would be an issue, but in a city not as crammed as others, the outlook for such a project would not be as bleak.
Would they fill it? As noted before, the city’s population seems to prefer outdoor sports that don’t require so much sitting.
Odds: 2.5 out of 10
Sacramento
Sacramento fits the “minor league” dilemma perfectly. Sure, it would be a decent option for the MLB: it’s not the largest city—the population is comparable to Kansas City or Atlanta—but the market is top 20.
However, the expensive ($46-plus million) minor league park for the Triple-A affiliate of the Giants is there. Funded by zero tax dollars—yes, you read that correctly—the field has enjoyed its existence since 2000 and certainly wasn’t created with expansion in mind. A new MLB team would mean a new MLB park—or a significant renovation.
At the end of the day, Sacramento fits better as a scare tactic for Oakland’s front office brass to get their act together over in the Bay Area.
Odds: 2 out of 10
Vancouver
Third among Canadian markets, Vancouver is one of those areas that would be a home run for the MLB—if there was enough interest from the two-million-plus metro area. Professional baseball has been part of the city since the 1970s, currently playing home to the Blue Jays’ Class A Short Season team in the minors and could be an excellent addition to the MLB’s expansion. Where adding a city like Montreal, a mere five-hour car ride to Toronto might cause a logjam and dilute the baseball markets, Vancouver’s reach from the west coast would make it more unique.
Seattle might have something to say about this type of idea, of course.
Odds: 1.5 out of 10
Austin
Austin typically gets included in the “Possible Professional Team Here” discussions, and for a good reason. The city is clearly a growing market, with both entertainment and tech adding to an already business-savvy area. And the idea of being the first major professional team is a chance at “New Territory” headlines that would undoubtedly attract not only major attention but also major revenue.
But Austin is also very much a college town—with a small DMA ranked 40th. And while the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate is 20 miles up the road in Red Rock, the lack of clamoring for professional sports from Austin’s residents seems to be ignored because all of the outsiders are shouting that it should happen.
Two places that won’t ignore this MLB expansion talk, though: The Houston Astros and The Texas Rangers—both teams only three hours away from Austin.
Odds: 1 out of 10
Oklahoma City
With a metro population of just under 1.4 million and already home to one professional sports team (NBA’s Thunder), Oklahoma City could garner some interest from the MLB. The current Triple-A affiliate for the Dodgers calls the city home, and the popularity of the game is strong not only in the city but also in the state of Oklahoma—both the Oklahoma Sooners and Oklahoma St. Cowboys have solid baseball programs.
The city’s MLB loyalty is mostly to the Kansas Royals (with maybe some super-secret pockets of Rangers fans), and the proximity is close—in small markets such as these, a five-hour drive means more than say Toronto to Montreal. The most significant issue, however, is the closeness the city has with its minor league team. Around since the 1960s, steamrolling that historical heartstring might be more trouble than it’s worth.
Odds: 0.8 out of 10
New Orleans
New Orleans is a smaller market (ranked 50th) but is still larger than cities like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Anaheim, Cleveland, and St. Louis. The NFL’s Saints are the biggest draw, and the NBA’s Pelicans made strides when they drafted Duke’s Zion Williamson— the most-hyped No. 1 overall pick since LeBron.
With the overall popularity of the NFL and the NBA arguably making an easier sell to fan bases, however, the total picture of the MLB working in New Orleans is cloudy. The Baby Cakes, a minor league affiliate of the Marlins, left town in 2019, and the city hasn’t found a replacement yet. Highly doubtful that it’s ever an MLB team.
Odds: 0.5 out of 10
Lincoln/Omaha
You can’t throw out a Field of Dreams reference and then wholly neglect that area of the US when considering MLB expansion. Sure, the farm area north of Iowa City will get a ton of hype in 2020, with the White Sox and Yankees set to play on the fabled field with the corn wall. But there should be equal shine placed on the fact that the MLB isn’t available in much of the area.
While most markets in Iowa are too small for sole consideration, the idea of a conglomerate shouldn’t come off as insane. And, Omaha/Lincoln would be a great fit. There’s money there for funding, and the market, complemented with Des Moines just two hours away, could be attractive enough that…yep…if you build it…they will come.
Odds in reality: .01 out of 10
Odds in Field of Dreams: 10 out of 10
