Thinking in four dimensions, appreciating the vastness of the universe, grasping quite what a 48-team World Cup will look like. The human mind has its limits.
The newly expanded edition in 2026 will host more group stage fixtures than there were total matches at any prior World Cup. In a Europa League-flavored twist, there will be a round of 32, ensuring that the four semifinalists have to play eight matches (rather than seven) for the first time. Even the number of hosts is unprecedented.
As the tournament races over the horizon there are still six vacant spots left to fill, shrouding the 104 matches which await next summer in even more uncertainty.
In an attempt to offer a flickering light of clarity amid the cloud of confusion, we can project how the 2026 World Cup would be expected to play out by using FIFA’s world rankings at the time of the draw. It’s not a flawless method, but in the unpredictable realm of a sport played with a round ball and the blunt instruments of the human foot, there is no such thing.
Group Stage
Winners and runners-up
We first need to complete our set of qualified teams. Taking the four paths of UEFA playoffs to begin with, Italy, Ukraine, Türkiye and Denmark have been projected to come through qualifying. While the latter two would both be expected to finish as runners-up in their groups with two of the co-hosts, 12th-placed Italy are set to be the highest ranked team in Group B, finishing above Switzerland as well as Canada and Qatar.
Thanks to the seeded nature of the group stage draw, the familiar global powers all stand a good chance of topping their mini-standings. England arguably have one of the toughest groups with 10th-placed Croatia to contend with, while this inconsistent iteration of Brazil are by no means guaranteed of out-performing an all-conquering Morocco.
Germany proved in qualifying and the past two World Cups that no traditional superpower is safe in the modern footballing landscape. However, the 2026 tournament also offers the back-door qualification route of third-place finishes.
| Group | Projected Winner (FIFA Ranking) | Projected Runner-up (FIFA Ranking) |
|---|---|---|
| A | Mexico (15) | Denmark (21) |
| B | Italy (12) | Switzerland (17) |
| C | Brazil (5) | Morocco (11) |
| D | USMNT (14) | Türkiye (25) |
| E | Germany (9) | Ecuador (23) |
| F | Netherlands (7) | Japan (18) |
| G | Belgium (8) | Iran (20) |
| H | Spain (1) | Uruguay (16) |
| I | France (3) | Senegal (19) |
| J | Argentina (2) | Austria (24) |
| K | Portugal (6) | Colombia (13) |
| L | England (4) | Croatia (10) |
Best third-place teams
Eight of the 12 teams that finish third in the group stage will advance to the knockout round for the first time in World Cup history. This will likely dilute the jeopardy of most group games—two-thirds of all entrants make it through to the knockouts—but securing a top two group-stage finish could be pivotal to avoid a tricky tie in the round of 32.
Erling Haaland’s Norway have launched a rapid ascent up FIFA’s rankings thanks in no small part to Manchester City’s record-toppling goalscorer. However, this is not a one-man operation. Atlético Madrid’s Alexander Sørloth offers an attacking presence of his own while Arsenal captain Martin Ødegaard is the technical, creative and literal leader of the team.
Of course, there is every possibility that the likes of Norway, Mohamed Salah’s Egypt or co-hosts Canada, upset the FIFA rankings and gatecrash the top two. Australia are certainly targeting as much. As the confident Socceroos coach Tony Popovic warned: “Anyone that underestimates us, I think, will get a rude shock when it comes to those group games.”
| Group | Team | FIFA Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| A | South Korea | 22 |
| B | Canada | 27 |
| D | Australia | 26 |
| F | Ukraine | 28 |
| G | Egypt | 34 |
| I | Norway | 29 |
| J | Algeria | 35 |
| L | Panama | 30 |
Eliminated nations
The suspension of disbelief is key to enjoying an entirely hypothetical article like this, but it won’t take a dizzying leap of imagination to picture Scotland crashing out in the group stage in a blaze of a glorious defeat.
In each of their eight previous World Cup appearances, Scotland have never before made it past the first round. Even when Ally MacLeod took a side boasting the likes of Kenny Dalglish, Graeme Souness and Archie Gemmill to the 1978 tournament, unashamedly predicting that “we will qualify and I think a medal of some sort will come and I pray and hope that it is the gold one,” they fell at the first hurdle.
DR Congo and Iraq are expected to come through the inter-confederation qualifiers next March—but both would be the lowest ranked nations in their respective groups.
| Group | Group Stage Finish | Nation (FIFA Ranking) |
|---|---|---|
| C | 3 | Scotland (36) |
| E | 3 | Ivory Coast (42) |
| K | 3 | Uzbekistan (50) |
| H | 3 | Saudi Arabia (60) |
| A | 4 | South Africa (61) |
| B | 4 | Qatar (51) |
| C | 4 | Haiti (84) |
| D | 4 | Paraguay (39) |
| E | 4 | Curaçao (82) |
| F | 4 | Tunisia (40) |
| G | 4 | New Zealand (86) |
| H | 4 | Cape Verde (68) |
| I | 4 | Iraq (58) |
| J | 4 | Jordan (66) |
| K | 4 | DR Congo (56) |
| L | 4 | Ghana (72) |
Round of 32
Clash of co-hosts
This almighty clash of co-hosts is not so unlikely. If the USMNT win Group D they will be up against a third-place team which will be determined by the identity of the third-place teams that make it through the group stage. FIFA have already mapped out all 495 possible scenarios. In two-thirds of those combinations, Group D’s winners are paired with the third-placed team from Canada’s Group B.
The North American neighbors faced off as recently as March 2025 in the third-place playoff for the Concacaf Nations League. Canada claimed a sweet 2–1 victory in California and boast three wins from the past five matchups. Considering the Canucks had not beaten the USMNT for 34 years before another Nations League triumph in 2019, this is a dizzying level of parity in the history of the rivalry.
USMNT vs. Canada (which would be in Santa Clara, Calif.) isn’t even the biggest continental derby potentially on the cards in the round of 32.
Should Argentina win Group J as expected and Uruguay finish behind Spain in Group H, Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium would be the venue for a repeat of the first-ever World Cup final.
That clash in Montevideo back in 1930 was conducted in a different time—one of Uruguay’s scorers, Héctor Castro, was famously missing part of his right arm after accidentally amputating it with an electric buzzsaw aged 13—but the ferocity of the rivalry still burns just as bright. However, the losing team may not have their embassy bombarded with rocks in the event of a defeat on this occasion.
| Date | Fixture | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| June 28, 2026 | Denmark vs. Switzerland | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood |
| June 29, 2026 | Brazil vs. Japan | NRG Stadium, Houston |
| June 29, 2026 | Germany vs. Australia | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough |
| June 29, 2026 | Netherlands vs. Morocco | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe |
| June 30, 2026 | Ecuador vs. Senegal | AT&T Stadium, Arlington |
| June 30, 2026 | France vs. Egypt | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford |
| June 30, 2026 | Mexico vs. Ukraine | Estadio Azteca, Mexico City |
| July 1, 2026 | England vs. Norway | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta |
| July 1, 2026 | Belgium vs. South Korea | Lumen Field, Seattle |
| July 1, 2026 | United States vs. Canada | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara |
| July 2, 2026 | Spain vs. Austria | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood |
| July 2, 2026 | Colombia vs. Croatia | BMO Field, Toronto |
| July 2, 2026 | Italy vs. Algeria | BC Place, Vancouver |
| July 3, 2026 | Türkiye vs. Iran | AT&T Stadium, Arlington |
| July 3, 2026 | Argentina vs. Uruguay | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami |
| July 3, 2026 | Portugal vs. Panama | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City |
Round of 16
England go to the Azteca
Arguably the most famous—undoubtedly the most infamous—World Cup match England has ever played came on the sizzling grass of Mexico City’s Estadio Azteca. Back in 1986, the Three Lions couldn’t handle the majesty and mischievousness of Diego Maradona. Forty years on, they won’t be up against anyone quite as good—no offence to Raúl Jimenez and co.—but Mexico will have a ferocious home support on their side.
El Tri’s manager, Javier Aguirre, was a player in the side that made it to the quarterfinals in 1986. A repeat in 2026 at the expense of England would be an almighty achievement.
Two of the last-16 clashes are scheduled for July 4, with the evening kickoff of Germany vs. France a potential Independence Day delight. The two traditional European behemoths have met each other in four previous iterations of the tournament. France’s only victory in the competition against their neighbors came in the third-place playoff back in 1958, when a Just Fontaine hat-trick powered Les Bleus to a 6–3 win.
This is the stage of the competition when the USMNT are expected to run out of road. Mauricio Pochettino’s side may be going for all-out glory, but the Stars and Stripes would have to pull off an upset to get past a Belgium team that has plenty of quality despite an uneasy mix of ageing stars. Should this clash actually come to pass, brace yourself for Tim Howard endlessly reliving his 16-save heroics against Belgium at the 2014 World Cup round of 16. The USMNT also lost that match.
| Date | Fixture | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| July 4, 2026 | Switzerland vs. Netherlands | NRG Stadium, Houston |
| July 4, 2026 | Germany vs. France | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia |
| July 5, 2026 | Brazil vs. Senegal | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford |
| July 5, 2026 | Mexico vs. England | Estadio Azteca, Mexico City |
| July 6, 2026 | Croatia vs. Spain | AT&T Stadium, Arlington |
| July 6, 2026 | United States vs. Belgium | Lumen Field, Seattle |
| July 7, 2026 | Argentina vs. Iran | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta |
| July 7, 2026 | Italy vs. Portugal | BC Place, Vancouver |
Quarterfinals
Messi vs. Ronaldo
In between fantasies about 12-month-long Club World Cups and President Donald Trump, the prospect of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo facing off on the global stage may very well have been among Gianni Infantino’s fever dreams when the draw was unveiled.
The two icons of the modern game have played 48 World Cup games between them—although they can only boast two non-penalty goals in the knockout stage of the competition—yet never have they faced off before. There are several scenarios that could see Messi and Ronaldo thrust against each other as early as the round of 32 or be kept apart until the final, yet the most likely outcome of results sets up this mouth-watering quarterfinal.
Brazil could take on England in the heat of Miami in another almighty South America-Europe clash. This would theoretically be a repeat of the 2002 World Cup quarterfinal in Shizuoka, Japan, when Ronaldinho’s debatably deliberate free kick arced over David Seaman. Brazil would emerge as victors that day—despite Ronaldinho’s oft-forgotten red card—yet England would be the favorites in 2026 based on the current FIFA rankings.
| Date | Fixture | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| July 9, 2026 | France vs. Netherlands | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough |
| July 10, 2026 | Spain vs. Belgium | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood |
| July 11, 2026 | Brazil vs. England | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami |
| July 11, 2026 | Argentina vs. Portugal | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City |
Semifinals
France vs. Spain
Should this fixture actually come to pass, it will be swiftly billed as a direct head-to-head between Lamine Yamal and Ousmane Dembélé, the two outstanding individuals from 2025. Yet, a more fitting storyline may be Yamal and Adrien Rabiot.
The outspoken French midfielder incited the ire of Spain’s prodigious teenager ahead of the Euro 2024 semifinal between these two nations, warning that he would have to up his game if he wanted to advance.
Yamal’s social media response was overtly high-minded—“Move in silence; only speak when it’s time to say checkmate”—but he was emphatic on the pitch. A shake of the hips tossed Rabiot to one side, affording the teenager—still 16 at the time—enough room to bend a sumptuous effort into the top corner as Spain made it to the final.
England vs. Argentina
The World Cup knockout clashes between England and Argentina have been sporadic but spectacular. The fiery quarterfinal in 1966 at Wembley was a feisty affair, decided by Geoff Hurst’s solitary goal and defined by the hotly controversial dismissal of captain Antonio Rattín, who initially refused to leave the pitch when sent off.
David Beckham reluctantly trudged off in Saint-Etienne in 1998 after an ill-judged flick out at Diego Simeone. Before that 47th-minute dismissal, England and Argentina had exchanged four first-half goals; Gabriel Batistuta and Alan Shearer traded penalties before Michael Owen’s extraordinary individual effort. Javier Zanetti would polish off a crisp free-kick routine to bring it level at 2–2, forcing a stalemate which was only broken by penalties.
Maradona—with a little divine intervention—proved to be the difference when these two nations clashed in Mexico City in 1986.
Third-Place Playoff
France vs. England
This is a game no one really wants to be involved in. There may be 103 other fixtures to savor but FIFA has retained this entirely unwanted battle for a bronze medal.
If it is to be England vs. France in Miami on July 18, 2026, this dead rubber could be marginally enlivened by the futures of the two managers, who would both be taking charge of their last fixtures. Didier Deschamps has already announced that the 2026 World Cup will be his final tournament—before Zinedine Zidane presumably steps into the breach—while Thomas Tuchel only has a contract until the competition’s conclusion.
Final
Spain vs. Argentina
The reigning champions of Europe and South America have never met in a World Cup final. However, never before have FIFA seeded the draw for the knockout rounds, ensuring that the two sides ranked first and second in the world would be guaranteed to face off should they win their groups.
The ethics of that decision are dubious at best but it would set up an enticing final—on paper at least. The 2022 showpiece was a notable exception to the rule of dour World Cup climaxes. Spain’s only global title came after one of the grimmest.
“It wasn’t a nice game of pretty football,” Dutch hatchet-man Mark van Bommel surmised after losing 1–0 to Spain in 2010. “But which final is?” Perhaps this one.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2026 World Cup Projected Bracket: Co-Hosts Clash, Messi vs. Ronaldo, Argentina Dethroned.
