The 126th U.S. Open has arrived.
Over four days this week, the best in the world will battle windy conditions at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y., one of the toughest challenges in all of golf.
“I think it’s the best championship test in the country,” Rory McIlroy, who missed the cut at the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock, said in a press conference Tuesday. “It tests all aspects of the game—driving, iron play, you need to have your wits about you on the greens. … It’s a golf course where it can turn very quickly.”
The last time a U.S. Open champion was crowned at Shinnecock, a 28-year-old Brooks Koepka claimed his second consecutive win at the major by shooting one-over, just enough to edge out runner-up Tommy Fleetwood. Eight years later, who will be hoisting the trophy Sunday evening in Southampton, and who will not make it to the weekend?
Here are predictions from the Sports Illustrated staff ahead of the 2026 U.S. Open:
2026 U.S. Open picks: Winner and final score
Andy Nesbitt: Matt Fitzpatrick, -1: I came into this week not knowing who the heck I was going to pick to win this thing and then I saw Fitzpatrick’s press conference on Monday afternoon and knew right then that he is going to win the 2026 U.S. Open. In his presser, Fitzpatrick talked about the 2018 setup at Shinnecock and how he didn’t think it was that bad even though the winning score by Brooks Koepka was one-over. Then, he spoke about the winds during his practice round and had a sparkle in his eye as he talked about how he “chipped” a five-iron into the 155-yard par-3 11th like it was a fun thing to do. And then he said this, which sealed the deal for me: “I think that for me, this golf course, when it is really tough like that, I enjoy that challenge because you have to do your homework and you have to hit good shots and I think that’s what any good golf tournament should require.” No fear right there from Fitzpatrick. It also helps that he won the 2022 U.S. Open on a difficult setup at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass., and has three wins on the PGA Tour this season. Fitz is the guy. Book it.
Dan Evans: Cameron Young, even par: It's time. Young gets his first major, and he gets it in his own backyard. Shinnecock won't give up the red numbers everyone's forecasting, and the New York kid makes the fewest mistakes. He was Captain America at the Bethpage Ryder Cup, won the Players in March, and drives it as long and straight as anyone alive—exactly the game a 7,400-yard par 70 in the wind demands. He's been close enough to taste it for years. This week it lands, and Long Island loses its mind.
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Brian Giuffra: Tommy Fleetwood, -3. If not now, when for Tommy Lad? He was second here in 2018. He has a 4th and T5 in his U.S. Open résumé as well. He’s well accustomed to playing courses based on sandy soil. He has a T5, T4, and T11 in three of his last four starts. He’s playing with his buddy Rory McIlroy the first two rounds. I just feel like he’s primed for another run at the title here. When betting, that’s all I care about. Just give me a chance, Tommy Lad!
Tom Dierberger: Scottie Scheffler, -1. Sure, it’s chalk. But it’s also Scottie. This tournament marks Scheffler’s first chance to join golf’s most exclusive club and become the seventh man to win the career grand slam. All that’s left on his checklist is a win at the U.S. Open. While he might not admit there’s extra pressure this week, Scheffler watched McIlroy agonize for a decade trying to complete the grand slam at the Masters. He should want no part in those mind games. If Scheffler does finish under par as I am predicting, he would be just the fourth golfer to do so in a U.S. Open hosted at Shinnecock. The other three have won the tournament.
2026 U.S. Open picks: Surprise player to miss the cut
Andy Nesbitt: Bryson DeChambeau. This wouldn’t be the biggest of surprises since The King of YouTube Golf has missed the cut at the first two majors of the year, but it would be a stunner if DeChambeau isn’t around for the weekend at Shinnecock. And I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen because he just hasn’t seemed comfortable on the big stages this season. He’s been toying around with a new TaylorMade driver this week, which tells me he’s not comfortable off the tee right now. That is going to be pivotal at Shinnecock. I feel like he’s going to see a lot of the property this week, shoot a couple of 79s and be on a plane home Friday night.
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Dan Evans: Rory McIlroy. I know how this sounds. He's the second choice on the board, and he spent Tuesday telling everyone how much he loves this test. But check the tape. The last time the U.S. Open came to Shinnecock, McIlroy opened with an 80 and was on a plane home Friday. This place demands patience and a tidy miss, and Rory's bad days still turn into a card full of doubles the second the wind gets up. One loose driver and Shinnecock does the rest. I think he's gone by the weekend.
Brian Giuffra: Collin Morikawa. Collin got off to a red hot start this year, winning at Pebble and contending at the Genesis and Arnold Palmer. Then he tweaked his back at the Players and withdrew. He finished T7 at the Masters and T4 at Heritage after that, but his last three events have resulted in T62, T52 and T29 finishes. I don’t see him contending this week and, if things go south, he could call it early.
Tom Dierberger: Brooks Koepka. The aforementioned 2018 U.S. Open champ at Shinnecock, Koepka enters the week dealing with a hand injury he suffered last week and had to withdraw from the RBC Canadian Open. It’s been an up-and-down year for Koepka, who has tallied five top-15 finishes but has missed three cuts since returning to the PGA Tour in January. The conditions at Shinnecock can get the best of any golfer, even a former champion.
U.S. Open Betting Preview: Picks, Predictions, Odds for Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
2026 U.S. Open picks: Dark horse player to finish in top 10
Andy Nesbitt: Alex Fitzpatrick. I don’t want to sound crazy here but we very well could see the Fitzpatrick brothers in the final group on Sunday. How cool would that be? And what a Father’s Day that would be for their dad. After teaming up with his brother to win the Zurich Classic in April, which gave him his PGA Tour card, Alex has three top-10 finishes in five events and is coming in with a ton of confidence. He has a T17 at the British Open (2023) on his résumé so he knows what it’s like to play well at a major. This could be his week to have an even better finish at Shinnecock.
Dan Evans: Robert MacIntyre. Everybody's chasing the American kids. I'll take the Scot nobody's mentioning. MacIntyre grew up in Oban, on the west coast of Scotland, where the wind isn't a weather event, it's just Tuesday. He was runner-up at last year's brutal U.S. Open at Oakmont, and he owns a links title from the Genesis Scottish Open. He arrives 17th in the world with a fresh T4 at the Players. Bob keeps grinding out pars while the bombers give it all back. Top 10, comfortably.
Brian Giuffra: Russell Henley. I don’t know that this would be a shock considering he’s top 10 on the oddsboard, but no one is talking about Russ this week. Perhaps that’s because he’s short off the tee. But he’s also a grinder who has had success at the U.S. Open and other links courses (AKA the British). He was T10 at the U.S. Open last year and T7 the year before. He was also T10 and 5th at the last two British Opens on sandy soil courses.
