Back-to-school clothes shopping was always a minefield. I remember trying to anticipate an entire identity on a sweaty August afternoon at the mall without any way of telling what the rest of the masses were going to look like (while also operating on a no-Abercrombie-unless-you’re-paying-for-it budget). One particularly frustrating example: another summer of buying basketball shorts and various AND1 tops at Bargain Barn with various slogans (Don’t Apologize—Your Game Is Sorry Enough) only to arrive at school and every kid was dressed like Owen Wilson in Midnight In Paris. When did we all agree to start wearing brown shoes? Rugby shirts? Literally anything with a button? Cologne? Cologne! I swear to God I met a kid that year who had a pair of driving gloves.
In a way, this is not unlike the plight of teams that do not have franchise quarterbacks and have to go looking on the open market. You’re working with a vague idea of what the league may look like and about 30% of the budget you wish you had (in this comparison, settling for Russell Wilson and a pair of cargo shorts from Aéropostale is so apt). It rarely works out, and the fortunate few that score a franchise cornerstone through the draft hold onto those players for dear life. The second Lamar Jackson attempted to club his way onto the open market, the entire NFL glitched and shut down like a defective Xbox.
This is why looking ahead at the QB carousel a full season in advance is often helpful. What is out there? We’re talking veteran quarterbacks only and the 2026 class leaves plenty to be desired. In previous iterations of this exercise, we could at least pretend Jerry Jones would be responsible enough to allow Dak Prescott to hit free agency. This year is going to take some imagination, which is why we’re going to draw out some quarterbacks who are under contract but, depending on how the season goes, may end up deemed expendable.
Last summer, we went team by team. This year we are sorting players into tiers.
Tier 0: Impossible Dreams
This category consists of the two quarterbacks we could imagine being pried loose only if all the universe’s chaotic energies aligned.
Lamar Jackson
We now understand why the Falcons, Commanders and, well, just about any other team in the NFL, decided not to chase Jackson when he was on the non-exclusive tag in 2023. It was good old-fashioned collusion. Since that time, Jackson received a long-term contract with great cash flow—though not the fully guaranteed Deshaun Watson follow-up he rightfully sought. The only issue? Jackson won an MVP in ’23 and should have won it again in ’24, had voters not been bogged down by fatigue. He is now underpaid again, and John Harbaugh said as much, noting that Jackson deserves to be the top-paid quarterback in the NFL.
Though Jackson is in the middle of a five-year deal, it was always going to require renegotiation to limit his cap number. Jackson’s cap number in each of the next two seasons is $74.5 million, which could obviously be remedied with another extension that leapfrogs Jackson over Dak Prescott atop the quarterback market. I’m guessing all this will happen without a second thought.
But … what if it doesn’t? Jackson went through a combative negotiation in 2023 and has now, as a self-represented player, absorbed all the tricks. He has seen how the league’s media arm could be utilized to embarrass him and how quickly teams can close ranks around a precedent-breaking maneuver. He is more politically savvy this time around. He will also have more than $185 million in career earnings, unlike the last time around. While—again—this will not happen, one could imagine the alternate universe where the relationship becomes so frayed that Baltimore succumbs to the conclusion that Jackson was effectively passed over by every team in the NFL, and it was Baltimore’s ability as a franchise to mold to Jackson’s needs and skills that made this relationship work. Essentially, the team could do it again without the headache of paying a quarterback at the top of the market every two years in perpetuity.
C.J. Stroud
This one is going to cause some serious blowback and is based heavily on a major hypothetical, so let’s dive right in. Stroud is in the third year of his rookie contract, and both he and Will Anderson Jr., the star pass rusher the Texans grabbed in tandem in the 2023 draft (thanks to the Browns’ generosity) will be up for massive extensions soon. Let’s just play in this space for a second so you can see where my head is. Imagine that Anderson, who received Defensive Player of the Year votes last year, continues to rise in DeMeco Ryans’s defense to the point that he’s deserving of a top-of-market extension. Let’s also say that Stroud, who regressed slightly from a statistical perspective last season, largely due to the Texans’ porous interior offensive line, doesn’t have the bounce-back season everyone is anticipating, despite getting a new offensive coordinator. Playing out the string with Stroud would lead the Texans down a path now familiar to Jaguars fans, where a market-breaking or market-value extension is the only answer to keep a quarterback you are still uncertain about.
Except for the fact that general manager Nick Caserio has already traded a franchise quarterback and reaped the immeasurable benefits of young, cheap, cost-controlled talent. While the circumstances were far different, the windfall of picks Houston received for Deshaun Watson has put the franchise back on an immediate path of relevance—though, if we’re being honest, just outside the doorstep of actual contention. I think Stroud could still field multiple first-round picks if he turns in a less-than-ideal 2025, and the Texans could save the hassle of deciding whether to exercise his fifth-year option.
Again—this is all based on the idea that Stroud does not live up to expectations this year. All indications are that the new offensive staff in Houston is ideally suited for Stroud and that signing a long-term contract in Houston is a foregone conclusion. I’m guessing you are all going to ask why Bryce Young isn’t on this list, and my response would be that Young, to me, is not on the path to a market-topping extension. He reminds me a bit of Carson Wentz or Jared Goff pre-Lions, where both of those quarterbacks had pronounced highs and lows and ended up slotting their extensions below the top of the market, which is less financially daunting. Carolina also doesn’t have other players who are in consideration to be paid at the top of their respective positions like Houston.
Anyway, please keep in mind this is labeled Tier 0: Impossible Dreams.
Tier 1: Blockbuster Candidates
Quarterbacks under the age of 30 who are not technically available, but could be worth a phone call should they or their teams underperform in 2025.
This is a razor-thin group. I was tempted to put Trevor Lawrence on this list, but his contract would be a landscape-clearing bomb on the Jaguars’ cap. Their young wunderkind GM is already full of big ideas, but I can’t imagine nuking the franchise’s great promise being atop the list, even if a third coaching staff fails to maximize his potential. Now, will we go into next season with Lawrence on this list, with less than $90 million in dead money triggered by a deal? That’s the same amount the Broncos ate to jettison Russell Wilson, which could be precedent-setting if Jacksonville is eyeing a divorce and Denver makes a deep run into the playoffs.
Kyler Murray
This is the first and, really, most sensible choice to top this list. Murray will turn 29 before the start of next season. This year will be his seventh season with the Cardinals, with one postseason berth (a loss in which Murray threw a pair of picks and completed fewer than 60% of his passes). Murray’s dead money will drop from a little more than $98 million this season to just north of $57 million after the conclusion of the 2025 league year. Of quarterbacks who have taken 1,000 or more snaps between Murray’s rookie season in ’19 and the end of last year, Murray has had roughly the same efficacy as Deshaun Watson, with Watson having much higher highs and far lower lows, which have plummeted Watson into the low twenties in terms of an EPA and completion percentage over expectation composite. In fairness to Murray, Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford are in that same statistical neighborhood, though I wonder whether Murray’s size and durability—he has missed games in three of his six seasons—would force the Cardinals, a team trending upward with a possibly generational receiver prospect, to wonder if there is greener grass out there.
Tua Tagovailoa
I refuse—absolutely refuse—to get into the weeds on this one. I am merely here to point out that, at the beginning of the 2026 league year, moving on from Tagovailoa would cost the Dolphins nearly $100 million in cap space, breaking a previous NFL record for dead-cap money set by Russell Wilson, which would be intolerable unless the Dolphins were to continue the team’s trend of trading expensive veterans and committing to a full youth-movement rebuild, including the quarterback position. Tagovailoa will turn 28 just before free agency in ’26, and quarterbackless GMs may have to weigh for themselves the fact that Tagovailoa has played one complete NFL season but has never not compiled a winning record and typically has a better than 2:1 TD:INT ratio. In the right offense, he’s accurate, decisive and incredibly good at avoiding idiotic sacks. Most seasons, he hovers in the 20s in sacks taken—this, despite a woeful offensive line situation. I think all these intangibles are valuable qualities and, if the Dolphins are pivoting regime-wise, or at least toward a new personnel direction, it makes sense to entertain any and all offers (if the team wants to draft at the position, the dead money feels superfluous anyway).
Tier 2: Carousel of Guys
A mostly 30-plus crowd of recycled veterans, quarterbacks waffling between retirement and the perfect ride into the sunset, and highly drafted QBs who have been through the wash cycle and have a good-enough record to necessitate another look.
Sam Darnold
I think Darnold is perfect for the Klint Kubiak offense and judging by what I’ve seen so far this preseason, he may not need to throw the ball all that much. I also think that Kubiak is one good season away from becoming a head coach. We're getting way ahead of ourselves now, but would Darnold be perfect for Seattle beyond 2025, especially with a high-upside third-round pick on the roster (Jalen Milroe) and a new coordinator possibly coming into the fold?
It’s important to add that Darnold could be released after one season based on the structure of his contract. If he regresses heavily from last year’s season in Minnesota, he can tumble back onto the market and hope for a Baker Mayfield–ian revival elsewhere. I don’t think that’s likely. Last year’s wobble down the stretch had far more to do with the Vikings being unable to counter certain blitzes, as evidenced by the franchise loading up on interior offensive line help this offseason. Darnold was in a functional offense for the first time in his career and threw 35 touchdowns and only two multi-interception games. In nine of his starts, he had a QB rating of 110 or higher. All of this to say, I imagine that’s hard to fake. That said, the Seahawks gave themselves an out for a reason.
Matthew Stafford
We’re in the middle of a Stafford health-related saga to close out training camp. That said, I imagine the Giants and Raiders would both re-engage their pursuits of the Super Bowl LVI winner if given the ability to, bad back and all. Stafford is a special quarterback who is nearing the post-twilight of his career. It seems preferential to him to continue playing in a sun-kissed locale and for one of the greatest offensive coaches of his generation. All that said, the Stafford situation grows acrimonious on a near yearly basis and his contract is basically a pay-as-you-go structure, allowing the Rams to back out before the start of free agency in 2026. If Stafford and the Rams part ways, I imagine there would be interest, but Stafford would have to be swayed by the right combination of factors—and to avoid the Aaron Rodgers–Jets tire fire that has the potential to end a brilliant career on a sour note.
Still, I think about how many Shanahan and McVay disciples who are coaching NFL teams and would clear out a mediocre QB situation to make room for Stafford as a potential bridge starter. I also think that, in 2026, we could have even more McVay assistants leading teams who would enter the fray for a competent bridge starter.
Aaron Rodgers
Who knows, right? Based on the fact that Rodgers signed a one-year deal and seems content with ending his career with the Steelers, we would assume that this is his last NFL season. Based on Rodgers himself, participating in a documentary about, well, himself, called Enigma, we shouldn’t take anything he (or anyone) says at face value. One aspect of this offseason I noted was Rodgers’s seeming eagerness to play for one of the truly elite play-callers in the NFL: Kevin O’Connell. I do wonder if the Rams and Stafford separate, if Rodgers would decide to essentially perform a one-year residency at SoFi Stadium with Sean McVay, like he would have in 2025 if the Rams had traded Stafford to the Giants or the Raiders.
In terms of value, a productive Rodgers is unmatched in the veteran space. He’s playing for $13.6 million, with a cap hit just slightly larger. This allows for a team to do what the Jets and Steelers attempted in subsequent seasons—stack the remainder of the roster and load up on veteran talent to maximize the quarterback’s remaining window. With Davante Adams already in place with the Rams, the sojourn will become interesting fodder once the 2025 season ends, assuming Rodgers still has the itch to play.
Daniel Jones
Jones was just named the Colts’ starter for this season. I still believe, as I did back in the summer, that this has a chance to revive Jones’s career in an offense that provides him sensible answers and has enough weaponry to limit his need to put his body on the line as a runner. While Jones had good play-calling with the Giants, he didn’t have good … anything else. The offensive line dissolved around him and the expectation of disaster on every snap short-circuited Jones’s hard wiring. Based on the eye test, there is still a good quarterback in there somewhere.
I personally have Shane Steichen in that elite set of play-callers alongside Kevin O’Connell, Mike McDaniel and whomever else you would bundle together to formulate that immediate sub-category to Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. To me, this makes Jones a 50-50 proposition to make it to the open market in the first place. Clearly, the Colts are benching Anthony Richardson because they want to make the playoffs in 2025. If they succeed, the team will not be in a position to draft a successor and will, again, be subject to the very field that we’re laying out in front of you today. In that sense, Jones can become a kind of budget Kirk Cousins who, in several different opportunities, found himself as the best option in a dreary buyer’s market.
Derek Carr
Carr will begin his broadcasting career in a matter of weeks, but as we’ve seen with nearly every longtime NFL quarterback, the allure of playing the position can trump almost everything else in its orbit. Only Andrew Luck has doubled down on the feeling of falling out of love with the game and willing himself to find something more profound out there.
The Saints, as they did with Sean Payton, could end up dealing Carr after the season. (How troubling a trend would it be to learn that multiple people have faked their retirement to escape your facility?) Carr would be just 35 upon return and could slot in nicely as a bridge starter on a competitive roster that needs a quarterback. As I have mentioned on this site before, Carr was a matter of preference for certain coaches, but there are curious play-callers out there who thought, even last year, that he was a viable NFL starter. Given the lack of options, a curious team may put in a call to see what the price would be. New Orleans, amid a full-scale rebuild, would play ball.
Kirk Cousins
I would label Cousins not starting in 2025 as the ultimate missed opportunity. I think we rushed to a snap judgement in ’24, criticizing Cousins for a decline in skills when the reality of the situation was far more nuanced. The Falcons did Cousins little favor with his movement patterns in the backfield and failed to acknowledge that there were still some lingering issues from his torn Achilles the season before in Minnesota.
Atlanta dug in on its quest to legitimize the Cousins signing by getting top-market return via trade this offseason, which did not materialize, and is now keeping Cousins on the roster as insurance and as a coach-on-the-field type player. I think Cousins will age in the NFL like Josh McCown if given the chance and has value into his late 30s. After this season, Cousins’s base salary and cap hit rise, while the dead money charge to release him diminishes significantly—especially for a team starting a quarterback still on his rookie deal.
Russell Wilson
Wilson’s future career path will depend on how long he can fend off Jaxon Dart in New York amid an impossible schedule. While Wilson’s stats are still above average for the spot-veteran-starter role, he can only be penciled into certain situations. The Giants, for example, were a team so wholly lacking in leadership in the quarterback room that the addition of Wilson and all that his arrival entails made sense. Wilson is a whirlwind of precalculated personality, but he has ardent fans in the NFL to this day—a particular brand of coach who buys into his no-negativity aura. The advantage for Wilson is that the price is right. He costs a little less than Rodgers, despite being younger and, if need be, situationally mobile.
Wilson starting in New York next season would be the result of either a catastrophic injury, or a minor miracle or a gargantuan failure in the drafting and development of Jaxson Dart. More likely, he is auditioning for his fifth NFL franchise.
Jameis Winston
Winston has, against all odds, developed into a bulletproof vibes guy who, in the absence of any other sensible solution, can pacify a fan base that understands this is not the year to do anything but have fun.
Jimmy Garoppolo
The Rams have expressed a high level of confidence in the idea that Garoppolo can start games for the team this year in the event that Stafford is not fully healthy. Garoppolo gets a bad wrap, largely because the 49ers decided to accelerate their process by pivoting to Lance. Then, Garoppolo floundered with the Raiders, though that requires nuance that he was there with a poorly run and planned iteration of the franchise. Garoppolo will be 35 next season, having started a game for the Rams last year in which he completed more than 65% of his passes and threw two touchdowns.
Tier 3: Potential Stashed Ballers
Veteran quarterbacks who have not yet received a steady runway of starts but possess enough promise to take a chance on.
Tyson Bagent
Bagent has a 2–2 record as an NFL starter but has amassed a groundswell of support due to his preseason theatrics. The former undrafted free agent is physical, mobile and has solid pocket awareness. He posted a 103.6 quarterback rating against the Bills in last week’s preseason beatdown. He could be a quarterback, like those who serve as backups in the Shanahan and McVay systems, to receive a Ben Johnson bump into fringe-starter territory.
Note: Bagent signed a two-year, $10 million extension just before publication. While this doesn’t preclude him from being moved, it shows that he may be in the Bears’ longer-term plans as a backup.
Jake Browning
In extended work when Joe Burrow was injured in 2023, Browning completed a staggering 70% of his passes (which qualified him as the NFL’s season leader) and kept the Bengals afloat with a 4–3 record against solid opponents, logging quality wins over the Jaguars, Colts, Vikings and Browns. The 29-year-old went undrafted out of Washington in 2019 and landed with the Bengals in a backup role in ’21.
Tanner McKee
McKee has 323 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in two NFL appearances, one of which was a season-ending start against the Giants last year in the Saquon Barkley rest game. The 6' 6" Stanford prospect was drafted in 2023 by the Eagles and has an obvious connection to current Saints head coach Kellen Moore, who was his DC last season. McKee was also 20-for-25 with two touchdowns against the Bengals this preseason against whatever one would consider a “starting” Bengals defense. McKee is incredibly smooth and processes reads quickly. At the very least, one could see him dropping into an established system and thriving with decent weapons.
Malik Willis
Willis was, once upon a time, looked at as a potential first-round pick during the 2022 Kenny Pickett draft—believed to be a lost year for the position. However, Willis has been strong during his brief stint with the Packers, posting a 2–0 record, a staggering 74% completion rate and no interceptions. Green Bay has tapped into a replicable formula that allows Willis to get rid of the ball quickly and efficiently, while also accentuating his mobility.
Tier 4: Fliers
Former first-round picks who clearly have talent but need the right combination of experience and nurturing.
Trey Lance
Lance has been solid under Jim Harbaugh, which might end up being the perfect base from which to relaunch his career. Lance is still just 25 years old and is slowly garnering the reps he didn’t get at North Dakota State.
Zach Wilson
The former No. 2 pick is in a perfect location with Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins. I think other evaluators and coaches will have their eye on his growth over the course of this preseason, which has been a familiar mix of brilliant downfield touch throws and confounding short-yardage misses.
Mac Jones
Jones, in my opinion, has the best chance out of anyone in this group of starting next season, even though his preseason has left something to be desired to this point. Jones is a high completion percentage plodder who, with the right internship in San Francisco, could emerge as an on-the-spot option for a down-and-out club in 2026.
Anthony Richardson
The newly demoted Richardson should seek his release from Indianapolis and try to rehab his career in new surroundings. Like Lance, he needs repetitions and an amenable situation on the bench where he can learn better habits and how to game plan for the week ahead.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2026 NFL QB Carousel: Could Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa Be Available?.
