Enough with the birdie fests—get me to Torrey Pines! This week’s Farmers Insurance Open takes us to the historic San Diego venue and, while the field might not be as illustrious as the AmEx, we also don’t have Scottie Scheffler in the field to make the odds board largely a moot point.
Torrey Pines is divided into two courses, the North and South, and we’ll see both this week with players splitting their first two rounds before finishing the weekend on the South. Both tracks were designed by William Francis Bell, and the South Course is the bear of the two, measuring 7,802 yards and previously serving as host to two U.S. Opens (2008 and 2021). The North Course is almost 500 yards shorter at 7,258.
Because of the length of these tracks, driving distance will be a big topic of conversation—but it’s not the only way to win at Torrey. Just look at last year’s winner, Harris English, who is middle-of-the-road in distance. There is little penalty for missing the fairway this week, but the Poa greens can be diabolical, just like the areas around the greens. Navigating everything tee-to-green will give us our winner, and we have some key numbers beyond the driving to explore.
Key Stats for Torrey Pines
Strokes-gained approach over last 36 rounds
Back to the well once again. While so much oxygen will be spent on driving, approach play is often the better indicator. Solid bets under this stat include:
- Sami Valimaki (1.237)
- Si Woo Kim (1.138)
- Rico Hoey (1.014)
- Aaron Rai (0.995)
- Austin Eckroat (0.912)
Course history at Torrey Pines South
While we only have strokes-gained data segmented for Torrey Pines South, we do have three of the four rounds there this week, with only one of the first two rounds at the easier North Course. Because of that, I’m still weighing course history on the South quite heavily into the model.
- Nicolai Hojgaard (2.529)
- Tony Finau (1.919)
- Adam Scott (1.881)
- Ludvig Åberg (1.822)
- Brandt Snedeker (1.775)
Strokes-gained putting on Poa Annua greens (last 36 rounds)
Putting on Poa greens can be a tricky test for some players, but an advantage for others. It’s a unique surface that certainly has some specialists, and the putter should be important this week since it won’t be a birdie-fest.
- Justin Hastings (1.181)
- Pierceson Coody (0.905)
- Sami Valimaki (0.898)
- Adrien Dumont De Chassart (0.802)
- S.H. Kim (0.680)
Proximity on approach from 200-225 yards
With a long course like Torrey Pines, Driving Distance is important, but it’s not the only thing. How players perform on approach from those long distances is as important, if not more so. So we’re honing in on players who have thrived from that range with their recent play.
- Alejandro Tosti
- Sami Valimaki
- Chandler Phillips
- Ludvig Åberg
- Cameron Young
Farmers Insurance Open model rankings this week
We start with our bread-and-butter that will play well almost every week, SG: Approach (15%). After that, we’re looking at course history at Torrey Pines South (10%) since we don’t have ShotLink data on the North Course, SG: Putting on Poa (10%), Proximity from 200-225 yards on approach (10%), and SG: Around-the-Green in the last 36 rounds (10%), and Driving Distance (10%) on the heavier side of the mix. We then weigh some lower factors like SG: Tee-to-Green in the last 36 rounds (8%), course history at comps like Quail Hollow and Riviera (6% each), Scrambling (5%), SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards (5%) and Bogey Avoidance (5%). With those numbers, here’s how the Top 10 in the model break down.
- Xander Schauffele
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Patrick Cantlay
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Max Homa
- J.J. Spaun
- Austin Smotherman
- Ludvig Åberg
- Cameron Young
- Adam Scott
2026 Farmers Insurance Open picks
Cameron Young +2200 (FanDuel)
When has backing Cameron Young ever gone wrong? Painful rhetorical question aside, Young has been trending quite strongly since his win at the Wyndham at the end of last season. He was fifth at the FedEx St. Jude, 11th at the BMW, T4 at the TOUR Championship, then finished ninth at the Procore Championship.
The finishes are great, but the fact that he gained strokes putting in each of those tournaments is what speaks volumes about where his game now stands. He’s the prototype with the long ball off the tee, but he’s also greatly improved his scrambling and his approach play has been positive over the last 36 rounds. He’s middle-of-the-field in putting on Poa, but did finish T20 at Torrey last year despite losing 2.29 strokes on the greens.
Now that the putter isn’t actively hindering him, I think Young is in for a big season and this could be an ideal fit for him to get started.
Will Zalatoris +4800 (DraftKings)
We obviously haven’t seen much of Zalatoris, as the PGA Championship in May was his last start on the PGA Tour before last week. But in his return at the AmEx, we saw enough signs for me to believe that he’s now healthy and a threat at Torrey Pines.
For starters, Zalatoris gained strokes across the board last week with 4.62 tee-to-green and 2.14 putting. That’s the model you want to see when he’s playing well, especially when you consider his history at this event. While he missed the cut in 2023 and was forced to WD last year, he was T13 in 2024, runner-up in 2022 and T7 in 2021. This is a place that clearly suits his eye, which makes sense given his reputation for playing well on tough courses.
Zalatoris was somewhere around 20-1 to win the Farmers last year. The fact that we’re getting 48-1 after he played quite well last week represents a ton of value, even if there is obvious risk given the lack of recent data.
Sami Valimaki +18000 (DraftKings)
Valimaki burned us last week, but all I can do is trust the numbers, even if a missed cut makes me feel a bit worse about it. Then again, at 180/1, we’re talking about a dart throw.
The numbers paint a good picture for Valimaki overall, though his around-the-green, driving distance and course history push him to 21st in the model. At the same time, he’s first in this field in SG: Approach (among players with more than five qualifying rounds), 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green, second on approaches from 200-225 yards out and surprisingly third in SG: Putting on Poa over the last 36 rounds. Again, his scrambling and bogey avoidance issues are why his odds are this long, but there’s a lot to like.
Valimaki indeed looks like a player who can pop on certain weeks, and his profile seems to fit Torrey Pines quite well, despite his overall lack of distance. His long approach play could nullify that, and I still believe that he’s live for the second straight week.
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More Golf from Sports Illustrated
- Farmers Insurance Open Picks, Props Predictions: Betting Hideki Matsuyama, JJ Spaun and Will Zalatoris
- Xander Schauffele Is Ready for a Fresh Start at Torrey Pines
- Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview
- This Player May Be Ready for His Own ’Tommy Fleetwood Breakthrough’
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2026 Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets: It Takes More Than Driving Distance to Win.
