USC stayed in the picture, too, with a convincing win over Northwestern in L.A.
At the same time, the Mountain West’s chances took a dive after San Diego State lost on the road to Hawaii.
The results sent me back to the drawing board to re-rack the squads.
Here’s how I view the Top 10 Teams in the West heading into Week 12.
1. Oregon (5-1, 8-1) ◄►
The win at Iowa was critical for Oregon’s at-large Playoff hopes.The Committee wasn’t convinced by UO’s resume, and a loss would have put the Ducks in an uneasy spot.
Getting that victory should pay dividends in this week’s rankings. And from the bigger picture, the road win shows that Oregon can win traditional Big Ten football games in adverse conditions.
If there were any doubts about the Ducks’ status in the league, it was answered on Saturday night.
2. BYU (5-1, 8-1) ◄►
The Cougars struggled against Texas Tech. In many ways, BYU looked outclassed.It’s entirely possible that Texas Tech is just that good. But the margin of defeat and the eye test were jarring. How the Committee views the loss will be illuminating.
Even so, the remaining schedule is relatively favorable. If the Cougars win out and reach the Big 12 Championship, that should be good enough to get in.
The path could be more difficult, though, depending on how far BYU drops in this Tuesday’s rankings.
3. Utah (4-2, 7-2) ◄►
Coming off a bye week at 7-2, Utah is in a strong position.The Committee probably won’t move the Utes up in the rankings and might even drop them a spot, depending on where they put BYU.
But with three winnable games to close the year, Utah’s Playoff chances are very much alive.
Every contest from here on out is a de facto elimination game, and margins of victory could be critical.
4. USC (5-1, 7-2) ◄►
The three-touchdown win over Northwestern was an appropriate margin of victory.But coming in at No. 19 in the initial CFP Rankings, USC is on the outside looking in. Fortunately, the ACC is destroying itself, and the Trojans should jump up several spots.
Still, it’s unclear if Lincoln Riley’s team has legitimate at-large chances or if they must get to the Big Ten Championship Game to secure a bid.
The Big Ten might be capped at three total bids, putting USC in a fight with Oregon to reach the Playoff.
5. Arizona State (4-2, 6-3) ▲1
Arizona State’s win at Iowa State looks even better after the Cyclones beat TCU on their home field.At 6-3, with games left against West Virginia, Colorado, and Arizona, it’s probably fair to expect ASU to win out.
But even if that happens, there will need to be chaos in the rest of the Big 12 in order for the Sun Devils to reach the league’s championship game.
And with Sam Leavitt out for the year, the ceiling on the season is becoming clear.
6. Washington (3-3, 6-3) ▼1
Is Jedd Fisch leaving at the end of the year? It’s a fair question after reports have indicated that his family doesn’t like Seattle.Plus, his name keeps popping up in various job openings, adding further evidence of his desire to move on.
Putting the future aside, Washington lost all its momentum in the defeat to Wisconsin. Now out of the Top 25, it’s unclear where UW goes from here.
At the very least, the Dawgs should beat Purdue and UCLA before the finale against Oregon.
7. Arizona (3-3, 6-3) ▲1
Arizona is bowl-eligible after its fourth-quarter comeback against Kansas.Credit Brent Brennan for making the necessary coaching changes after last season and mining the portal well. Some coaches are too stubborn to admit their failures and instead double down on their decisions.
Brennan’s flexibility and willingness to make changes show that he might have staying power in Tucson.
There are still areas to improve on. But the Wildcats are trending in the right direction.
8. San Diego State (4-1, 7-2) ▼1
Welp, there go the Playoff chances.Now with two losses on the season by a combined margin of 55 points, San Diego State is unlikely to be one of the five highest-rated conference champions at the end of the year.
Even if SDSU wins out, the Playoff Committee won’t ignore the margins of defeat and would probably give the edge to the champion of the American Conference or James Madison.
The hope is not completely destroyed, though, and could grow if the Aztecs beat Boise State this week.
9. California (3-3, 6-4) ▲NR
Justin Wilcox might have just saved his job. Again.Everyone likes to say, “Cal is going to Cal” when the Bears inevitably lose a game they’re supposed to win.
But that same expression should be repeated when the Bears post their seemingly annual upset to give the fanbase just enough hope to keep them coming back.
And the win on the road over a ranked Louisville team provided exactly that: Hope.
10. Fresno State (3-2, 6-3) ▼1
With a bye week to internalize the domination of Boise State, the Bulldogs are set to finish the year strong.The three-game stretch to close the season is a test of consistency.
Which team shows up? The one that beat Hawaii and Boise State on the road, or the one that was blown out by Colorado State and San Diego State?
It’s been an up and down year, yet Fresno State holds key tiebreakers against the Broncos and Warriors.
Dropped Out: Boise State
