Twenty years ago, Rafael Nadal won his first major, the 2005 French Open. An improbable 21 majors followed—a goofy 13 more of them at Roland Garros. This marks the first Roland Garros with Nadal in retirement—which, in theory, opens the field. Except that two players have won each of the last five majors. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are in their respective primes, ages 23 and 22. They are ranked—and therefore seeded—No. 1 and No. 2. And they played in the Rome final last week.
Which is to say: After two decades of predictable excellence, we are back in a place where there are two favorites … and a long staircase down to the next set of contenders.
The top 16
1. Jannik Sinner
Coming off an encouraging, close-but-no-cannoli Rome, the red-headed stranger looks fine after his 90-day hiatus. Winner of the last major—and three of the last five—he is the top seed. He has never won Roland Garros, but was a semifinalist last year, who can play on clay. This is less about ring rust (clay rust?) than the emotions of the unprecedented position he is in.
2. Carlos Alcaraz
His Rome title—he now holds a 6–4 head-to-head against Sinner—looms large. The defending champ has had a bit of an up-and-down spring. But that was the case last year as well, and we saw how that turned out. For all the hand-wringing about his wavering focus—made worse by his Netflix documentry—note that he just turned 22 and is shooting for his fifth major.
3. Alexander Zverev
The best player (of all-time?) never to have won a major was one set away from the prize last year. The raw materials are there. But is the self-belief, especially when matches tighten? Concerning how he retreated from the opportunity of becoming No. 1. Concerning how hypersensitive he is in situations like this. And Francisco Cerúndolo (0–3 head-to-head) lurks. But what a massive download of talent …
4. Taylor Fritz
Admirable that, upon entering the top five, he has taken out this long-term lease. And good for him, for holding (barely) a top four slot here. The question: Does he have one more gear? A patchy year so far (no titles), but Fritz always competes.
5. Jack Draper
A year ago, he was unseeded. Now he nearly got his own quarter of the draw. The ascent has been that dramatic. He got a big rankings boost, amassing 1,000 points for winning Indian Wells. But he has shown clay acumen as well, reaching the Madrid final.
6. Novak Djokovic
The three-time champion, now 38, seeks his first major in 18 months and first pro title since 2023. Then again, the last time he played at this venue, he went undefeated. (And given his withdrawal last year, he hasn’t lost at Roland Garros since 2022—and that was at the hands of Nadal, who is no longer active.) Granted it’s a long shot, but do note: If Djokovic takes advantage of a soft draw and wins, it would mark his 25th career major, the new tennis record.
7. Casper Ruud
It had been a rough few months for the Norwegian (and two-time Roland Garros finalist), but Ruud turned around in Madrid ... and then backslid in the clay, when he mustered a total of one game against a redlining Sinner in Rome. Solid as they come. It’s tough to win majors without a kill shot, but look at his forehand and his recent results and his track record in Paris—and why not?
8. Lorenzo Musetti
The stylish Italian—and his one-hander—is a joy to watch and is now at a career-high ranking after a nice spring romp on the clay. (Don’t forget, too: He once had a 2–0 sets lead over Djokovic here.) A Week 2 player? Yes. A legit contender? Borderline.
9. Alex de Minaur
Most importantly, we anticipate a reunion with superfan Paul. Speaking of Paul, like Tommy (see below) de Minaur is a solid, athletic, talent maximizer who makes life tough for every opponent but still needs one more gear.
10. Holger Rune
He is 10–3 in Paris, reaching the quarterfinals at Roland Garros in 2022 and ’23. After a fairly dismal ’24, he turned it around in ’25 playing, largely, to his potential. Retirements in Monte Carlo and Madrid and an early Rome defeat are causes for concern. But at full health, he’s a Week 2 player.
11. Daniil Medvedev
Have we, collectively, made enough of his decline? The former major champion—notionally in his prime years—hasn’t won a tournament in more than two years.
12. Tommy Paul
Paul cemented himself as an athletic, solid, can-play-anyone, tough top-10 player. The question: Is there another gear? (He’s a former Rolan Garros boys champ.)
13. Ben Shelton
He’s had a bit of an up-and-down year. Shelton struggled since Indian Wells, but did reach the Munich finals last month. All gas, no brakes (or breaks) tennis can work on clay.
14. Arthur Fils
Star this entrant in your racing form. The highest-ranked French player, male or female, is so talented and only 20. He’s never won a match at Roland Garros but that’s bound to change. There have been French players who have been frozen by the glare of the home major. This ain’t one of them.
15. Frances Tiafoe
Sadly, his results haven’t kept pace with his likability. Tiafoe is always dangerous on the right day, but he’s not the same player who entered the top 10 in 2023.
16. Grigor Dimitrov
Credit him for remaining this relevant at age 34. He was a quarterfinalist in 2024, which was his best-ever showing.
Seeds 17–32
17. Andrey Rublev
The Safin Effect has yet to hit. He’s too good a player to be ranked this modestly
18. Francisco Cerúndolo
Our sleeper pick. The Argentine slugger is too well known and well respected these days to be considered an official dark horse. But one of the top … what? … eight(?) favorites.
20. Stefanos Tsitsipas
He came within a set of winning this event in 2021. But that was a different player. His backhand is beautiful, yes, but increasingly less effective.
26. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
A fun, easy-to-root-for player enjoying a bounceback year, and has already won more than 20 matches so far.
28. Matteo Berrettini
The former top tenner is still dangerous on clay where his 2025 includes a win over Zverev. (He has a hard court win over Djokovic, too.) But durability is always the issue with Berrettini.
29. Brandon Nakashima
Clay is not his best surface, but a tough out.
32. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Have serve, will travel.
Dark horse pasture
Flavio Cobolli: Leave the gun, take the Cobolli. A rough 2025 so far, but he has so much talent.
Gaël Monfils: The fan favorite/local favorite is 38 years old and likely playing his final Roland Garros.
Zizou Bergs: He’s at a career high (No. 49) and is a fun player to watch.
João Fonseca: He’s playing his first Roland Garros 25 years after another Brazilian (Gustavo Kuerten) won the title.
Stan Wawrinka: All former champions merit mention. (Even if it was a decade ago.)
Emil Ruusuvuori: He’s playing on a protected ranking and is worthy of your support.
Jaume Munar: Finally, the highest-ranked Mallorcan player in the draw.
Learner Tien: He starts against Zverev, trying to become a Week 2 in consecutive majors.
Daniel Altmaier: A former Sinner winner at Roland Garros—and gets bonus points for the sweet one-hander.
First round matches to watch
- Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Zizou Bergs
- Hubert Hurkacz vs. João Fonseca
- Alexander Zverev vs. Learner Tien
Upset special
- Tomás Martín Etcheverry d. Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Matteo Arnaldi d. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Semifinals
Sinner d. Cerúndolo
Alacaraz d. Musetti
Finals
More French Open on Sports Illustrated
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 Roland Garros Men’s Seed Report: Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz Are Early Favorites.
