With a tearful wave to the audience by Tommy DeVito, the 2025 preseason started coming to an end. We laughed, we (obviously) cried and we attempted to make sense of a league that looks awfully scrambled at the quarterback position right now.
This is primarily thanks to the Browns (no surprise), a team that spent the preseason with more quarterbacks in play than fingers on the typical human hand. Like a child in day care who won’t put their shoes on, the Browns have forced us to change this annual exercise for everyone else to accommodate their lack of common sense. This is why you’ll notice a more robust field for this year’s version of our rookie QB expectations. Each preseason, we try to predict seasons for first-year passers, though we’re in uncharted space given that Cleveland may see playing time from a 40-year-old starting quarterback, a third-round pick or a fifth-round selection. To not leave other fan bases in the dust, we expanded reach to loop in J.J. McCarthy, who did not play last season due to a preseason torn meniscus, and Jalen Milroe, who was drafted between Tyler Shough and Shedeur Sanders.
Let’s dive in.
Cam Ward, Titans
Projected starts: 15
Passing yards: 3,231
Passing TDs: 19
Interceptions: 11
Completion percentage: 61.3%
Highlight: Ward has a dizzying ease about him in the backfield, which has drawn comparisons to the equally wiggly and improvisational Patrick Mahomes. Of course, the evolution in Mahomes that made him a perpetual Super Bowl contender was his ability to check the ball down and win on ugly third-and-short situations by working his most dependable wide receivers open. So, I expect Ward to produce a handful of 20-plus-yard broken plays that will (hopefully) eclipse the Will Levis meme reel from a year ago in terms of popularity.
Overall thoughts: I watched every sack Ward took during last year’s NCAA season. You can do the same here.
I agree with the scouting consensus that Ward has a bad habit of extending plays for too long. He did the same in the preseason, and while some of those moments produced mind-bending throws, others had me sitting at the sofa’s edge, imagining a Sunday rush during the regular season. This, plus the Titans’ lack of overall talent at the receiver position, has me pressing the pause button on an incredible statistical campaign. It’s worth noting that Ward averaged roughly 90 “rushes” per season in college, with a steep dropoff before his senior season at Miami. I put rushes in air quotes because he didn’t gain a ton of yardage, which, like Mahomes, indicates less of a weaponization of his mobility and more of a functional desire to pick up first downs. Because Ward will likely find himself running or find himself in harm’s way from time to time, I have his projected start total at 15 games.
J.J. McCarthy, Vikings
Projected starts: 16
Passing yards: 3,731
Passing TDs: 25
Interceptions: 5
Completion percentage: 68.3%
Highlight: If I had to make a bold prediction about McCarthy, it’s that he’ll be the last of the “first-year” quarterbacks to throw an interception. This is a second-year passer with no regular-season experience, and Kevin O’Connell opted to roll with McCarthy over the much safer prospect of stashing someone like Aaron Rodgers or trading for a quarterback like Kirk Cousins. To me, that indicates O’Connell is comfortable with McCarthy’s decision-making ability, which was also evident in McCarthy’s very low college interception numbers (nine total in his two seasons as the starter).
Overall thoughts: This is lofty for McCarthy, understandably, and I initially adjusted my touchdown total from a slightly higher number. I think what we’re going to see is a group of wide receivers running routes that suit McCarthy’s comfort zone until he evolves into a more dynamic player naturally. This means leaning on the running game earlier in the season, though. However, McCarthy is a prolific thrower over the middle of the field, and Justin Jefferson ate up secondaries on in-breaking routes, hitches and crosses from a year ago, meaning that the two should be fast friends.
Jaxson Dart, Giants
Projected starts: 13
Passing yards: 2,789
Passing TDs: 16
Interceptions: 9
Completion percentage: 62%
Highlight: Dart’s rookie season will be incredibly difficult for the first-round pick out of Ole Miss. Dart’s Giants face the toughest slate in football. While rating strength of schedule can sometimes be a guessing game, New York’s features week after week of almost certain sure-fire playoff teams. Dart also has a porous offensive line that desperately needs to be codified before he starts taking serious snaps. That’s why I think we’ll be talking in a complimentary way about his pocket navigation skills, which were impressive during a preseason in which he was under heavy duress. His ability to remain present downfield while evading rushers is elite.
Overall thoughts: The only two logical places to drop Dart into the 2025 season are on the road in Week 5 against the Saints and after the team’s very late bye in Week 14. Of course, something could happen in practice that showcases Dart’s superiority to Russell Wilson and the change could be made organically, but that’s how I came up with 13 starts. I think Dart will have a kind of Carson Wentz–y rookie season, which means a lot of really cool pocket evasions, with some big throws downfield and, sure, a couple of head-scratchers in between. I also think that, like Wentz, Dart will have his own kind of offense that runs at a different pace and style that may help make the Giants carve out an advantage against overmatched opponents.
Tyler Shough, Saints
Projected starts: 10
Passing yards: 1,987
Passing TDs: 13
Interceptions: 11
Completion percentage: 60%
Highlight: I think Shough will surprise people a bit with the way he’s able to get involved with the run game and help New Orleans create some relief in the box by pulling the ball on some zone read concepts. Shough rushed as many as 72 times in a season in college and, perhaps in the same way Daniel Jones had that 100-plus-attempt season in 2022 with seven rushing touchdowns, Shough will do the same.
Overall thoughts: Shough didn’t win the quarterback competition outright and because his head coach, Kellen Moore, is a former quarterback, I am choosing to believe that he’ll wait until Shough is a little more polished to throw him into regular-season games. Spencer Rattler had moments of promise during the 2024 season and with a veteran-heavy roster, it’s going to be difficult to let a second-round pick take lumps at the expense of the Saints getting feisty and winning a few games the team should not. I have relatively low touchdown numbers and a higher interception total reflecting the fits and starts I saw the Saints’ offense undergo in the preseason. Shough looked quick to fire some passes in the face of pressure but was impressive once he found himself in a dropback rhythm.
Keep in mind that I thought Bo Nix had a fatal flaw in regard to his pocket presence in the preseason, which should tell you how much stock we should put into these games.
Jalen Milroe, Seahawks
Projected starts: 0
Passing yards: 119
Total touchdowns: 5
Interceptions: 0
Completion percentage: 75%
Highlight: I put total touchdowns for Milroe because I hope that he is involved in a red zone package for Seattle. Projecting him to make any starts would also be predicting an injury to Sam Darnold, which feels bleak for this kind of exercise. Milroe could be a menace for Seattle inside the 10, where the field so often condenses. This gives the Seahawks some additional options as well as a thicker quarterback for tush push consideration.
Overall thoughts: We’ve seen the Seahawks bypass a high-profile free agent for an interesting third-round prospect in the past, but Jalen Milroe is less pro-ready as a passer than Russell Wilson was in 2012. Milroe was also prone to some mistakes in short-yardage rushing during the preseason, which makes me wonder if Mike Macdonald will wait to pull the trigger on any Milroe package. Still, his abilities within the structure of a hybrid, run-based system are well known and replicable at the NFL level and would take some of the bigger-picture worries off his plate for now and allow Seattle to utilize the best of him.
Dillon Gabriel, Browns
Projected starts: 2
Passing yards: 268
Passing TDs: 3
Interceptions: 3
Completion percentage: 60%
Highlight: A theatrical-looking 10-yard touchdown pass that, upon review, barely gets the receiver down inside the pylon, showcasing what I felt was one of Gabriel’s most significant assets during the preseason: a true—albeit frantic-looking—resilience in the pocket and the ability to make an off-platform throw in tight space.
Overall thoughts: Gabriel was higher on Cleveland’s wish list than Shedeur Sanders, and he will inevitably get a longer runway to prove his worth at the end of what appears to be a lost season. The Oregon product will be dealing with a short deck and an offensive scheme clearly favoring the run. That said, I think Gabriel snapped through his progressions so quickly during the preseason and can scan a field with enough proficiency to be able to survive the ugliness of a challenging NFL game.
Shedeur Sanders, Browns
Projected starts: 1
Passing yards: 179
Passing TDs: 1
Interceptions: 1
Completion percentage: 59%
Highlight: A 20-plus-yard touchdown throw that comes as Sanders is getting absolutely drilled in the pocket. Say what you will about Sanders, but his willingness to take a hit and step up into a throw very much exists.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 NFL Rookie Quarterbacks: Projected Stats for Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, Others Who Could Struggle.
