The AFC and NFC playoff pictures both saw some movement in Week 9.
Both top seeds coming into Sunday lost, with the Colts and Packers faltering as favorites. Indianapolis fell 27–20 to the Steelers because of five Daniel Jones turnovers, while Green Bay lost at home despite holding Bryce Young to just 102 passing yards and an interception.
Elsewhere, the Bills won their annual clash with the Chiefs, 28–21, with Josh Allen having as many touchdowns (three) as incompletions. As a result, Buffalo maintained its fifth-seed status while Kansas City fell just outside the playoff picture, as the Jaguars beat the Raiders in overtime.
In the NFC, the Lions also lost and fell to the seventh seed instead of gaining ground on the Packers. The Eagles might be the happiest of all, moving into the conference’s top seed while sitting on a bye week.
AFC: Who’s In
No. 1: Indianapolis Colts
Record: 7–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 94%
Even with their loss to the Steelers, the Colts remain atop the AFC and still have a 1.5-game lead in the AFC South. That said, Indianapolis now goes overseas to Germany for a date with the Falcons before playing the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium after the bye week.
No. 2: New England Patriots
Record: 7–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Playoff probability: 97%
The Patriots are beating up on a ton of sub-.500 teams, but they keep rolling. New England is still a half-game ahead of the Bills after winning 24–23 over the Falcons, with Drake Maye throwing another pair of touchdowns. Next week brings a road game against the 6–2 Buccaneers.
No. 3: Denver Broncos
Record: 7–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 85%
Another week, another fourth-quarter comeback. Denver beat the Texans with 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, maintaining a one-game lead in the AFC West and two games better than the Chiefs. The next few weeks are key, with the Raiders and Kansas City coming to Mile High.
No. 4: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 5–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 44%
After losing two games to the Bengals and Packers, it appeared Pittsburgh might be backsliding. But on Sunday, the Steelers scored 27 points and handled the Colts on the strength of six takeaways, five coming off Daniel Jones. With the victory, Pittsburgh is still two games ahead in the AFC North.
No. 5: Buffalo Bills
Record: 6–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 96%
Buffalo faced plenty of questions over the past few weeks, but answered all of them on Sunday in a 28–21 win over the Chiefs. Dalton Kincaid and James Cook each had 100-yard games while Josh Allen was 23-of-26 with three touchdowns. It was a statement for the Bills in a key spot.
No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 6–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 77%
Los Angeles beat the Titans, but there are concerns after Joe Alt had to be carted off with an ankle injury. If Alt is out long-term, the Chargers will have to work around an offensive line that allowed six sacks to Tennessee. Next week? The Steelers are at SoFi Stadium on Sunday night.
No. 7: Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 5–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 45%
Jacksonville needed to hold on in overtime to win 30–29 over the hapless Raiders, but the Jaguars did so and earned back a playoff spot. The big question is whether Jacksonville can hold off teams like the Chiefs and Ravens, who are trying to catch them with better rosters.
NFC: Who’s In
No. 1: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 6–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 93%
Philadelphia is on a bye and moved up to the top seed due to Green Bay losing to the Panthers. The Eagles will come off their rest week to play the Packers on Monday Night Football at Lambeau Field.
No. 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 6–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 93%
The Buccaneers are on their bye week as well and will next host the 7–2 Patriots. Tampa Bay is 1.5 games up on the surprising Panthers in the NFC South, making the tilt against New England an important one.
No. 3: Los Angeles Rams
Record: 6–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 6
Playoff probability: 91%
The Rams hammered the Saints in Tyler Shough’s debut, winning 34–10 at home. Matthew Stafford threw for 281 yards and four touchdowns, putting Los Angeles in prime position to challenge for the NFC West and the conference’s top seed.
No. 4: Green Bay Packers
Record: 5–2–1
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 90%
Green Bay has some terrific wins against teams like the Lions and Steelers, but it also has a few stunning defeats. Despite being a double-digit favorite at home against the Panthers, Carolina won 16–13 and dropped the Packers from the top seed to the No. 4 spot.
No. 5: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 6–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 83%
The Seahawks looked once again like a dominant contender, beating the Commanders 38–14. Seattle is tied atop the NFC West with the Rams, and also in a tie with the Eagles and Buccaneers for the best record in the conference.
No. 6: San Francisco 49ers
Record: 6–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 82%
San Francisco took care of the punchless Giants, with Christian McCaffrey totaling 173 yards and two touchdowns in a 34–24 win. The Niners will now host the Rams before drawing the Cardinals, Panthers, Browns and Titans over their next four games.
No. 7: Detroit Lions
Record: 5–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 76%
Detroit had a chance to make a move in the NFC North with Green Bay’s loss, but promptly lost at home to J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings. The Lions now visit the Commanders before hosting the Eagles in a key NFC affair.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 9: Who’s In and Who’s Out at the Midway Point.
