It’s still early in the 2025 NFL season, but it’s time to start honing in on the playoff picture.
With 10 weeks remaining, a few things can be said. The Colts appear to be for real, the Buccaneers are powering through injuries, and perhaps the best team, the Chiefs, aren’t even in the playoff picture as of yet.
For the teams that are legitimate threats, there’s plenty to be excited about. The Patriots were thought to be plucky, but few expected them to challenge the Bills in the AFC East seriously. In the NFC, the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers are giving us a great battle in the West, while there’s a real chance the Commanders could go from a step away to missing the playoffs entirely.
But we start with the AFC, where Daniel Jones and Indianapolis are stunning everybody one high-scoring win at a time.
AFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Indianapolis Colts
Record: 6–1
Remaining opponents above .500: 7
Playoff probability: 92%
No team has been a bigger surprise than the Colts. Indianapolis is the league’s only six-win team, while Daniel Jones has thrown for 10 touchdowns against three interceptions. The Colts should get to 7–1 with the one-win Titans on deck.
No. 2: New England Patriots
Record: 5–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Playoff probability: 91%
The Patriots look like they have the next face of their franchise. Drake Maye has been fantastic, throwing for 1,744 yards and 12 touchdowns despite only having one household name for a target in Stefon Diggs. New England looks like a legitimate playoff contender with the Browns next on the slate.
No. 3: Denver Broncos
Record: 5–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 74%
It seemed inevitable that the Broncos were going to lose in upset fashion at home to the Giants, only to score 33 points in the fourth quarter for a last-second win. Bo Nix ended the day with 279 yards and two touchdowns, helping the Broncos to their fifth win and first place in the AFC West.
No. 4: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 4–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 6
Playoff probability: 66%
Pittsburgh sits alone atop the AFC North, but all is not well. The defense is allowing 374.7 yards per game, a bottom-five figure. The Steelers are also relying on a short passing game from Aaron Rodgers, something that, if too predictable, will eventually dry up. Still, they’re in position to host a playoff game.
No. 5: Buffalo Bills
Record: 4–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 89%
Buffalo is still in a good place, but a two-game losing streak has dropped the Bills out of first place in the AFC East. Out of their bye week, the Bills will take on the rejuvenated Panthers before hosting the Chiefs in Week 9.
No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 4–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 71%
After winning their first three games, things are not going well for the Chargers. Los Angeles has dropped three of its past four, including losses to the Giants and Commanders before being blown out, 38–24, to the Colts. Next up, Thursday night against the Vikings.
No. 7: Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 4–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 52%
Jacksonville has plenty to think about heading into the bye week. After a huge Week 5 win over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, the Jaguars have lost consecutive games to the Seahawks and Rams, the latter being a 35–7 blowout on Sunday.
NFC: WHO'S IN
No. 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 5–1
Remaining opponents above .500: 7
Playoff probability: 90%
Tampa Bay has been incredibly beat up on offense this year, with Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, Emeka Egbuka and Tristan Wirfs all missing time. Still, if the Buccaneers can beat the Lions on Monday night behind MVP-candidate Baker Mayfield, they’ll be the first NFC team to six wins.
No. 2: Green Bay Packers
Record: 4–1–1
Remaining opponents above .500: 7
Playoff probability: 88%
It hasn’t been pretty at times, but the Packers are leading the NFC North. Jordan Love is completing 69.3% of his attempts with 10 touchdown passes against two interceptions. Micah Parsons also exploded on Sunday, with three sacks in a 27–23 win over the Cardinals, giving him 5.5 for the year.
No. 3: San Francisco 49ers
Record: 5–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 76%
San Francisco has been without George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk, Brock Purdy, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa for all or some of the season, and yet here they are. Nothing has come easy for San Francisco, but coach Kyle Shanahan should be proud of the effort.
No. 4: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 5–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 84%
After losing two straight, the Eagles regrouped and beat the Vikings, 28–22, in Minnesota. Jalen Hurts threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns, while the defense forced a pair of Carson Wentz interceptions. Philadelphia is also two games clear of everyone in the NFC East, giving it ample breathing room.
No. 5: Los Angeles Rams
Record: 5–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 7
Playoff probability: 79%
The Rams might be undefeated if their special teams weren’t such a disaster. That said, Los Angeles is 5–2, as Matthew Stafford leads the league with 1,866 yards alongside 17 touchdown passes. The remaining schedule isn’t easy with more games against above-.500 teams than not, but Los Angeles is a clear contender.
No. 6: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 4–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 64%
Seattle is No. 1 in DVOA and looks the part behind a stingy defense, quality special teams and Sam Darnold being an upgrade over Geno Smith. After trading Smith for a third-round pick, the Seahawks signed Darnold to a $100 million deal, and through six games, he’s thrown for 1,541 yards and 11 touchdowns. His favorite target is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has 696 yards and three scores.
No. 7: Detroit Lions
Record: 4–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 6
Playoff probability: 73%
The Lions are dealing with a legion of injuries to their secondary including D.J. Reed, Terrion Arnold and Kerby Joseph. They’re also without star safety Brian Branch on Monday due to suspension for punching Chiefs receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. That said, the offense is rolling with 31.8 points per game, led by the rushing duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 7: Surprising Teams Hold the Top Seeds.
