This Sunday is proving to be moving day in the NFL.
In the early window, the Jaguars beat the listless Titans while the Texans toppled the Colts, giving Indianapolis its third loss in four weeks. Jacksonville now leads the AFC South, an unfathomable thought only a month ago.
In the late-afternoon games, the Seahawks shut out the Vikings and rookie quarterback Max Brosmer in his first-career start, while the Bills and Chargers earned resounding wins over the Steelers and Raiders, respectively.
Sunday’s most important result may have happened in Charlotte, where the Rams fell to the Panthers. The loss knocked them out of the NFC’s top seed. Carolina won behind three turnovers and a trio of Bryce Young touchdown passes, putting Chicago in line for home-field advantage as the season churns toward Week 14.
Speaking of Chicago, how things have changed. On Black Friday last year, the Bears fired coach Matt Eberflus. Fast forward a year later, rookie coach Ben Johnson has Chicago at 9–3 and in control of the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff picture.
The Bears might be for real after outmuscling the Eagles with a stout rushing attack, en route to a 24–15 victory on Friday. Surprisingly, all four underdogs won during the holiday schedule, causing plenty of movement in playoff seeding.
On Thursday, the Week 13 slate began on Turkey Day with the Packers visiting the Lions and beating them, 31–24, earning a season sweep of Detroit. Green Bay is now 8–3–1, putting it percentage points behind the Bears in the NFC North.
In the final game of Thanksgiving, the Ravens lost control of the AFC North after falling to the Bengals, 32–14. The middle of the three Thanksgiving games saw the surging Cowboys boost their playoff hopes with a 31–28 upset over the Chiefs.
Let’s now get to the playoff pictures, starting with the AFC.
AFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Denver Broncos
Record: 10–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 97%
The Broncos survived a wild Sunday night affair in Washington, winning 27–26 in overtime, with Nik Bonitto deflecting away a Marcus Mariota two-point conversion attempt, putting Denver into the AFC’s top spot.
No. 2: New England Patriots
Record: 10–2 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 99%
The Patriots will host the two-win Giants on Monday Night Football, attempting to win their 11th game of the season.
No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 8–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 79%
Jacksonville smoked the one-win Titans, giving it a third consecutive win and putting the Jaguars into first place in the AFC South, with two huge games against the Colts looming down the stretch.
No. 4: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 6–5 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 66%
The Ravens couldn’t hold onto the football during their ugly loss to the Bengals on Thursday, but with the Steelers also losing at home to the Bills, they remain in first place in the AFC North with the two foes meeting next week in Baltimore.
No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 8–4 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 64%
The Chargers unsurprisingly hammered the Raiders at SoFi Stadium, even with Justin Herbert having to briefly exit. However, Los Angeles has a very difficult five-game stretch to end the season, facing the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans and Broncos.
No. 6: Indianapolis Colts
Record: 8–4 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 69%
After losing two of their past three games, the Colts played host to the Texans and lost another one, 20–16. The offense managed only 281 yards while going 3-of-10 on third down, dropping Indianapolis into the wild-card portion of the playoff race.
No. 7: Buffalo Bills
Record: 8–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 89%
After falling to the Texans on Thursday night, Buffalo had a mini-bye before defeating the Steelers in Pittsburgh with help from two Christian Benford takeaways. With the win, the Bills remain in the seventh spot and now host the Bengals next weekend.
NFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Chicago Bears
Record: 9–3 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 72%
A lot was made of the Bears’ grueling remaining schedule. But don’t expect them to fade after defeating the Eagles on Black Friday. Chicago and its stout rushing attack will now travel to Green Bay next week with first place in the NFC North up for grabs.
No. 2: Los Angeles Rams
Record: 9–3 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 98%
After beating the Buccaneers on Sunday night in dominant fashion, the Rams traveled to Carolina and lost to the Panthers. Matthew Stafford committed three turnovers, including a pick-six, dropping Los Angeles off the NFC’s top line in the playoff picture.
No. 3: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 8–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 95%
The Eagles have a laundry list of problems after a two-game skid against the Cowboys and Bears. On the bright side, the schedule will get easier with two matchups against the Commanders and one vs. the Raiders in the final five games of the season.
No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 7–5 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 73%
Tampa Bay was able to outlast the Cardinals at home, staying a half-game ahead of the Panthers in the race for the NFC South. The two teams will play in Weeks 16 and 18, likely deciding the division title.
No. 5: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 9–3 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 93%
Seattle handled business against the Vikings, taking full advantage of rookie undrafted free agent quarterback Max Brosmer. The Seahawks picked him off four times, including an 86-yard pick-six from Ernest Jones IV.
No. 6: Green Bay Packers
Record: 8–3–1 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 93%
The Packers beat the Lions on Thanksgiving, putting them in second place in the NFC North.
No. 7: San Francisco 49ers
Record: 9–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 94%
San Francisco avoided a trap game in dreary Cleveland, winning 26–8 while holding Shedeur Sanders to 148 passing yards in his second-career start.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 13: Who’s In and Who’s Out After Sunday’s Wild Day.
