Thanksgiving is coming, and so is a furious rush for the playoffs.
Looking at both the AFC and NFC playoff pictures, there are only a few teams that should be considered locks for spots. In the former, it’s the Colts, Patriots, and Broncos. In the latter, it’s the Eagles, Rams and Seahawks. While some others, such as the Bills and Buccaneers, look like great bets, they still have work to do.
This week, we saw a few surprising results, including the Eagles blowing a 21–0 lead to the Cowboys, while the Bills gave up eight sacks in an upset loss to the Texans on Thursday night.
But we’ll start with the AFC picture, with the Ravens jumping into the fray after finally catching the stumbling Steelers in the AFC North.
AFC: Who’s In
No. 1: New England Patriots
Record: 10–2 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 99%
The Patriots won again on Sunday, making it eight straight with a 26–20 triumph over the Bengals. New England is now 2.5 games clear of the Bills, who will need nothing short of a miracle to beat out the Patriots for the AFC East.
No. 2: Denver Broncos
Record: 9–2 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 96%
The Broncos are on a bye in Week 12. They will resume with a pair of road games against subpar teams, including the Commanders on Sunday Night Football, before taking on the Raiders.
No. 3: Indianapolis Colts
Record: 8–3 | Opponents left above .500: 6 | Playoff probability: 89%
Indianapolis had an 11-point, fourth-quarter lead on Sunday against the Chiefs but watched it evaporate in a 23–20 overtime loss. The Colts lead the AFC South by a game over Jacksonville and two over Houston, teams they’ll see in four of their final six matchups.
No. 4: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 6–5 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 89%
After winning five straight, the Ravens are in first place in the AFC North, with a tiebreaker over the Steelers. Baltimore’s schedule will remain easy, as it will host the three-win Bengals on Thanksgiving night.
No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 7–4 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 60%
The Chargers are on a bye in Week 12. They will face the Raiders next weekend at SoFi Stadium, followed by the Eagles on Sunday Night Football.
No. 6: Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 7–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 72%
Jacksonville needed overtime to beat the Cardinals and overcome four Trevor Lawrence turnovers, but that’s precisely what happened. The Jaguars now take on the Titans before their first of two dates with the Colts.
No. 7: Buffalo Bills
Record: 7–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 82%
After losing to the Texans on Thursday night, Buffalo has a mini-bye before visiting the Steelers, who are going to be in desperate need of a win after losing 31–28 in Chicago.
NFC: Who’s In
No. 1: Los Angeles Rams
Record: 8–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 99%
The Rams host the Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football. We will update this space upon the conclusion of the game.
No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 8–3 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 99%
After losing to the Cowboys despite a 21–0 lead, the Eagles will now host the Bears on Black Friday, before taking on a pair of AFC West opponents in the Chargers and Raiders.
No. 3: Chicago Bears
Record: 8–3 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 54%
Chicago continued its winning ways on Sunday. The Bears dispatched the Mason Rudolph-led Steelers 31–28, with Caleb Williams throwing for 239 yards and three touchdowns. Chicago remains in first place of the NFC North by a half-game over the Packers.
No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 6–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 83%
The Buccaneers visit the Rams on Sunday Night Football. We will update this space upon the conclusion of the game.
No. 5: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 8–3 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 91%
The Seahawks took advantage of a poor Titans team, beating Tennessee 30–24 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score suggests. Seattle remains in second place in the NFC West, with the Vikings and Falcons next on the schedule.
No. 6: Green Bay Packers
Record: 7–3–1 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 77%
Green Bay hammered the Vikings, sacking J.J. McCarthy five times and picking him off twice in a 23–6 win. With the victory, the Packers remain a half-game behind the Bears, who they will play twice over the next four weeks.
No. 7: San Francisco 49ers
Record: 7–4 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 82%
The 49ers host the Panthers on Monday Night Football. With a victory, they will stay a half-game ahead of the Lions, who beat the Giants at Ford Field on Sunday.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 12: Who’s In and Who’s Out.
