The AFC West was a tale of two stories on Sunday.
In Denver, the Broncos showed the world that they can beat more than a few bad teams, handling the Chiefs 22–19 on a last-second Wil Lutz field goal. Bo Nix threw for 295 yards while the defense forced Patrick Mahomes into a red-zone interception, holding Kansas City’s explosive attack to 19 points.
Meanwhile, the Chargers went across the country to play the Jaguars and never showed up. Los Angeles lost 35–6 in humiliating fashion, with Justin Herbert failing to throw for 100 yards before mercifully being benched in the fourth quarter for Trey Lance. With the loss, the Chargers fell to 7–4 and sit two games back of the surging Broncos, who have won eight consecutive games.
In the NFC, the Rams earned a key win over the Seahawks, benefitting from four Sam Darnold interceptions. Los Angeles is now 8–2 and shares the NFC’s best record along with Philadelphia.
AFC: Who’s In
No. 1: Denver Broncos
Record: 9–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 97%
The Broncos beat the Chiefs in another thriller, putting them in the top spot of the AFC this late in the season for the first time since 2015. That year, Denver beat the Panthers in Super Bowl 50.
No. 2: New England Patriots
Record: 9–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 1
Playoff probability: 99%
The Patriots won their eighth consecutive game, handling the Jets on Thursday night. New England has only one above-.500 team remaining on its schedule, hosting the Bills in December after its bye.
No. 3: Indianapolis Colts
Record: 8–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 94%
Indianapolis is on a bye week after beating the Falcons in Germany. Next week, the Colts visit the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
No. 4: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 6–4
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 35%
Pittsburgh was able to blow out the Bengals, but Aaron Rodgers could miss time with a broken left wrist. If Rodgers can’t go, it’ll be Mason Rudolph getting the nod as the Steelers play the Bears next weekend in Chicago.
No. 5: Buffalo Bills
Record: 7–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 91%
Josh Allen threw two interceptions but also accounted for six touchdowns (three rushing, three passing) in a 44–32 win over the Buccaneers. Buffalo remains 1.5 games back of the Patriots in the AFC East, but this week goes to Houston for a Thursday night matchup.
No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 7–4
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 71%
Despite losing 35–6 to the Jaguars, Los Angeles remains in second place in the AFC West, 1.5 games ahead of the third-place team, going into its bye. That said, the road ahead is challenging, with games against the Eagles, Chiefs, Texans and Broncos.
No. 7: Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 6–4
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 55%
Jacksonville got the aforementioned blowout win over the Chargers and now leads the Chiefs by a game (along with the Ravens and Texans) with a tiebreaker in hand for the final spot in the AFC playoff picture. Next up? The Cardinals.
NFC: Who’s In
No. 1: Philadelphia Eagles
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Record: 8–2
Playoff probability: 99%
The Eagles look like they’re prepared to ride their defense into the playoffs and possibly further. Philadelphia held Detroit to 124 yards passing in its win over Detroit on Sunday night. Up next? A date with the Cowboys at Jerry World.
No. 2: Los Angeles Rams
Record: 8–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 99%
Los Angeles has key wins over San Francisco and Seattle in consecutive weeks and looks like the team to beat in the NFC alongside the Eagles. The Rams are clearly in the driver’s seat for the NFC West title, leading the Niners by a game with no games remaining between the two.
No. 3: Chicago Bears
Record: 7–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 6
Playoff probability: 44%
Chicago has pulled out magical wins over the Bengals, Giants and Vikings in the final minutes over the past three weeks. That said, Chicago looks like a strong bet for the playoffs, and could see Mason Rudolph next week when the Steelers visit.
No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 6–4
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Playoff probability: 84%
The Buccaneers need to start playing better. Tampa Bay has won only once in its past four games. While the NFC South doesn’t appear to be in any danger, the Buccaneers haven’t been able to keep pace for a top seed.
No. 5: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 7–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 93%
With a chance to jump over the Rams by a full game in the NFC West, Seattle lost 21–19 as Sam Darnold threw four interceptions. The Seahawks remain in a good position and will see Los Angeles later in the year, but fall into the wild-card category.
No. 6: Green Bay Packers
Record: 6–3–1
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 76%
Green Bay is without Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed and Elgton Jenkins, among others, due to injuries. Still, the Packers found a way on Sunday, winning 27–20 in New York to stay in the playoff picture.
No. 7: San Francisco 49ers
Record: 7–4
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 86%
After winning against the Cardinals and seeing the Lions lose to the Eagles, San Francisco has the seventh and final seed, sitting a half-game ahead of Detroit for the final spot.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 11: Who’s In and Who’s Out.
