In Chicago, the snow was falling. The Bears were rallying. The crowd was roaring. It felt like playoff football in every way, signaling a new phase of the NFL season.
People around the league will tell you things don’t truly heat up until Thanksgiving, when the pretenders and contenders separate and the battle for seeding comes into focus. But in Week 10, we saw plenty of teams make significant moves, including the Rams and Seahawks, who both earned divisional victories.
In the AFC, we watched the Colts outlast the Falcons in overtime, while the Patriots pulled off an upset victory over the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Meanwhile in Miami, the Dolphins engineered the shocker of the day, beating the Bills, 30–13, to drop Buffalo 1.5 games behind New England in the AFC East.
Let’s take a look at where the playoff picture stands, starting with Indianapolis and its continuing magic carpet ride.
AFC: Who’s In
No. 1: Indianapolis Colts
Record: 8–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 98%
Indianapolis had to play in Berlin on Sunday against a gritty Falcons team that forced Daniel Jones into two turnovers while sacking him six times. Still, the Colts found a way to win with Jonathan Taylor rushing for 244 yards and three touchdowns. Now, Indy gets a bye week before visiting the Chiefs.
No. 2: Denver Broncos
Record: 8–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 92%
Denver played one of the ugliest offensive games you’ll see on Thursday, but beat the Raiders to get to 8–2 while riding a seven-game winning streak. Next Sunday, the Broncos host the Chiefs in the biggest game they’ve played in a decade.
No. 3: New England Patriots
Record: 8–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 1
Playoff probability: 99%
The Patriots have primarily feasted on an easy schedule, but beating the Buccaneers on Sunday in Tampa Bay should raise eyebrows. Drake Maye had another great day outside of an end-zone interception, throwing for 270 yards and two touchdowns on 8.7 yards per attempt.
No. 4: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 5–4
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 44%
Pittsburgh has seen its lead in the AFC North shrink to only one game over the Ravens, who have won three straight. The Steelers still control their own destiny, but also play Baltimore twice in the last five weeks. For Pittsburgh, it’s imperative it wins next week against the Bengals before hitting the tough part of its slate.
No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 7–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 79%
The Chargers hosted the Steelers on Sunday Night Football and took care of business, 25–10. Despite Justin Herbert being sacked five times, Los Angeles racked up 25 points while holding Pittsburgh to just 156 total yards before a garbage-time, 65-yard touchdown march.
No. 6: Buffalo Bills
Record: 6–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 92%
No team had a more shocking loss this weekend than the Bills. After beating the Chiefs in Week 9, Buffalo went to Miami and completely fell apart, losing 30–13 while Josh Allen suffered a pair of turnovers. As alarming as the Dolphins’ average of 7.0 yards per play was, they moved against Buffalo’s defense at will.
No. 7: Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 5–4
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 39%
Jacksonville remains in the playoff picture after losing to the Texans, but its playoff chances took a massive hit in the meltdown at Houston. The Jaguars led 29–10 in the fourth quarter, only to get smoked in the final 15 minutes, allowing 26 unanswered points to fall to 5–4. Going forward, Jacksonville hosts the Chargers before must-win games against the Titans and Cardinals.
NFC: Who’s In
No. 1: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 7–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 91%
Seattle continues to look dominant, jumping out to a 38–7 first-half lead over the Cardinals before improving its record to 7–2. The Seahawks got two defensive scores to help bury Arizona, and now prepare to travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams in what could be the biggest game of their season.
No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 6–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 98%
Philadelphia takes on Green Bay on Monday Night Football before hosting the Lions in another huge conference matchup.
No. 3: Green Bay Packers
Record: 5–2–1
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 88%
Green Bay hosts Philadelphia on Monday night at Lambeau Field, with the Packers then visiting the Giants on a short week.
No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 6–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Playoff probability: 93%
Tampa Bay had a chance to come off its bye and earn a quality win at home against the Patriots. Instead, the defense was gashed for 435 yards in a 28–23 defeat. Baker Mayfield threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns but it wasn’t enough. Tampa Bay goes on the road next week to Buffalo.
No. 5: Los Angeles Rams
Record: 7–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 94%
Los Angeles might be the best team in football when not beating itself. Heck, if the Rams could kick a field goal, they’d be 9–0. Still, Sean McVay’s team is coming off a 42–26 win over the Niners and now gears up for a home date with the NFC-best Seahawks.
No. 6: Detroit Lions
Record: 6–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 77%
The Lions hammered the Commanders on Sunday, winning 44–22 behind 320 passing yards and three touchdown passes from Jared Goff. Detroit plays the Eagles next weekend in a game that could go a long way toward determining home-field advantage in the NFC.
No. 7: Chicago Bears
Record: 6–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 6
Playoff probability: 32%
Chicago has flirted with disaster the past two weekends, going into the final two minutes trailing both the Bengals and Giants. Yet the Bears have rallied both times, running their record to 6–3 and finding themselves in the playoff picture. The schedule isn’t easy, though, with games against the Eagles, 49ers, Lions and Packers twice remaining on the docket.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 10: Who’s In and Who’s Out.
