The first half of the 2025 season has come and gone. We sit here at the midpoint with many questions answered over the first nine weeks and many more remaining.
After a busy trade deadline reshaped a few rosters, we’ve sorted out the winners and losers, and dished out midseason report cards to every team in the AFC and NFC. Now let’s take another look at some of the more interesting stories across the league.
Our nine writers and editors will each list a first-half surprise, an intriguing second-half storyline and an updated Super Bowl prediction at the bottom.
Here’s who we have participating below:
Albert Breer, senior NFL reporter
Conor Orr, senior writer
Gilberto Manzano, staff writer
Matt Verderame, staff writer
Greg Bishop, senior writer
Michael Rosenberg, senior writer
John Pluym, managing editor
Mitch Goldich, senior editor
Clare Brennan, associate editor
First-half surprises
Albert Breer: The Titans’ firing of Brian Callahan
At some point, you’d figure all the change had to stop. The Titans came into this season having changed general managers in 2023, changed coaches in 2024 and changed GMs again earlier this year. In January, the triumvirate of Callahan, president of football ops Chad Brinker and new GM Mike Borgonzi was sold as the leadership to guide Tennessee out of the NFL wilderness, and the benefit of a lot of thinking and rethinking over how owner Amy Adams Strunk should set up her football infrastructure. It lasted six games, after a start so rough that it seemed inevitable the Titans would make a change, be it during the season or after.
As a result, Cam Ward became the fourth consecutive quarterback drafted with the No. 1 pick to have his coach fired during his rookie season. The move only puts more pressure on Strunk, Brinker and Borgonzi to get the next hire right.
Conor Orr: Special teams have had a massive impact
I think the biggest first-half surprise was just how outsized an impact special teams and special teams coordinators have had on the NFL. They are becoming as close to a legitimate third of the game as we’ve ever seen, and I think it’s had an amazing impact on staffing, roster building and spotlighting organizations that actually know how to win.
It’s so clear now, right? Which coaches had the foresight to sign knuckleball kickers, to expose certain vulnerabilities in the field-goal-blocking game and to plan and predict some of the oddities that have come out of a new kickoff rule.
While many special teams coordinators insist that there is not an increase in blocks, merely a larger occurrence in more isolated games, we’re on pace for the most blocked kicks ever, we’ve already had the longest field goal in NFL history and I would not be surprised if special teams has a gigantic impact on the outdoor winter playoff games, where coaches predict harder turf and more intense winds affecting the trajectory of kickoffs and punts.
Gilberto Manzano: The Micah Parsons trade forced the Cowboys to scramble in many ways
Technically, the Cowboys traded Micah Parsons to Green Bay before the season, but the shocking trade was so close to the opener that it affected the team’s game plan for Week 1 against the Eagles and, in reality, every game in the first two months of the year. First-year Dallas defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus had to adjust his scheme on the fly and still hasn’t found a formidable pass-rushing rotation, leaving the suspect secondary to fend for itself.
But Jerry Jones made another shocking trade to close out the first half of the season, sending one of his first-round picks to the Jets in exchange for star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. He also acquired linebacker Logan Wilson from the Bengals to aid a Cowboys defense that’s just as bad as Wilson’s former unit.
Not much has worked defensively, to the point that rookie head coach Brian Schottenheimer has had to answer questions about potential changes to his defensive staff. But to Schottenheimer’s credit, he quickly produced a productive offensive scheme for Dak Prescott & Co., one of the benefits of Jones promoting the former offensive coordinator who’s been with the team since 2022.
The recent trades should help the defense and possibly put less stress on the offense. Still, that’s not enough for Jones to get a pass for trading Parsons a week before the season opener. To summarize, the Parsons trade was shocking, the defense is surprisingly worse and the offense has been unexpectedly very good. All this to say that the Cowboys will probably finish with eight or nine wins even with the trades for Williams and Wilson, which sounds about right for this franchise that has gotten nothing but mediocre results this century despite constantly being in the news.
Matt Verderame: The Colts becoming a contender
In the summer, the first stop on my training camp tour was with the Colts in Westfield, Ind. At the time, Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson were rotating days with the starters. It didn’t appear either was ready to lead Indianapolis to glory.
Fast-forward three months, and the Colts are 7–2 and not only leading the AFC South by 1.5 games, but are also tied atop the conference with the Patriots and Broncos.
Of course, the massive surprise is the play of Jones, who even after a disastrous Week 9 loss to the Steelers that saw him lose five turnovers (three interceptions, two fumbles) has been great. Jones has thrown for a league-leading 2,404 yards and 14 touchdowns, while Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL both with his 895 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. First-round rookie Tyler Warren has also been excellent, registering 518 yards to lead all NFL tight ends.
If there’s any question about the Colts’ credentials, it’s about the quality of their schedule to this point. Indianapolis’s only quality wins have come against the Broncos and Chargers. Its other five wins have come against the Dolphins, Raiders, Cardinals and Titans twice. Those teams have a combined 8–35 record.
With the playoff races heating up, the Colts are primed for a deep run. They just have to keep up their torrid, shocking pace.
Greg Bishop: The Patriots are cleansing good
More than halfway through this 2025 NFL season, New England sits in a once-familiar position—atop the AFC East, the same division the Patriots conquered every year from 2003 through ’07 and from 2009 through ’19. In every subsequent year, as Buffalo built a Super Bowl contender, the Bills won the division. At the outset of this season, Buffalo ranked among the top-top favorites. Many expected improvement in New England. What happened was beyond that.
It’s surprising—though it shouldn’t be that surprising at all. Yes, second-year quarterback Drake Maye has played like an MVP candidate. But the signs—elite processing speed, amid far less talent; command; plays or drives or quarters that projected something like this—were evident in his rookie season. Add in a new head coach in Mike Vrabel, his established tenets—discipline, focus, distraction-free—and his education in both the Patriot Way and his own established coaching philosophy.
Throw in free-agent additions: Milton Williams, the centerpiece of the Vrabel’s now formidable defensive line; Stefon Diggs, who’s resembling a No. 1 receiver again; right tackle Morgan Moses, who has played 97.9% of the Pats’ offensive snaps; and Carlton Davis III, who has played 94.7% of the defensive snaps, while starting at CB.
In the draft, New England selected its left tackle for the next decade-plus in Will Campbell (No. 4 pick) and a shifty/versatile running back in TreVeyon Henderson (No. 38). Both have registered large, immediate impacts. Which is why the Patriots can realistically challenge the Colts for the biggest surprise of the first half-plus of the 2025 season. But which is also why anyone armed with this information in the preseason could have seen some version of this coming, too. Which has had an unintended impact, allowing Pats Nation to finally, mercifully, move forward from that other era, the one that seemed impossible to move on from.
Michael Rosenberg: Sam Darnold is underpaid
I was a Darnold skeptic before it was cool: I didn’t believe in him after he threw 22 interceptions in 27 games at USC. I thought his 2024 performance with the Vikings was a Kevin O’Connell creation and the Seahawks bought high on a mediocre player. (Darnold’s contract: three years, $100.5 million, $55 million guaranteed.) But Darnold has played even better for Seattle, which looks like a well-rounded team that can go deep into the playoffs. Meanwhile, Geno Smith went off to the Raiders’ black hole and nobody has seen him since.
In a league where too many owners and execs are scared of their own shadow, let’s give credit to Seattle owner Jody Allen and (especially) general manager John Schneider. First, Schneider dealt his franchise quarterback (Russell Wilson) to Denver, at exactly the moment when Wilson stopped being a franchise quarterback, or even a serviceable one. Then, Schneider traded Wilson’s successor, Smith, to a team led by former Seahawks coach Pete Carroll and signed Darnold—a combination move that was just begging to be second-guessed. The Seahawks are perhaps the best current example in the NFL of trusting what you see and doing what you think is right, public opinion be damned.
John Pluym: The Vikings have been a flop after passing on Sam Darnold, and Daniel Jones
Here’s what I wrote before the season: In the NFC, it’s all about the defending Super Bowl champions. Nick Sirianni and his crew will want to put to rest any thoughts that the Commanders are the rising team in the conference under Jayden Daniels. I’m expecting Jalen Hurts to have a big year and become a more complete passer. The Eagles will earn their trip to the championship game by taking down Kevin O’Connell and J.J. McCarthy in the championship game. Minnesota will become more of a running team this season, but won’t have enough firepower to dethrone the Eagles.
I’ll take a victory lap on my Philly prediction. But the Vikings? I couldn’t have been more wrong. Other than one outstanding quarter against the Bears in the opener and a pretty decent game against Detroit, J.J. McCarthy has been absent, as have Minnesota’s high-priced offensive and defensive lines. After signing one of the best free-agent classes in recent memory in 2024, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah swung big again this offseason, signing center Ryan Kelly, guard Will Fries, and defensive linemen Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. All have had little to no impact.
Coming off a 14-win season, I expected the Vikings to be a top contender in the NFC. They returned almost all their top players, but their most significant loss might have been Sam Darnold, who is playing like a legitimate MVP candidate in Seattle. I also expected O’Connell to get average production from McCarthy. However, it’s challenging to get production out of any NFL player when they’ve spent most of their first two seasons in the league out with injuries.
I couldn’t have been more wrong about this team.
Mitch Goldich: The dynamic kickoff has been great—and well received
I know Conor wrote about special teams above, but I want to zoom in on just the dynamic kickoff. The play was introduced to the NFL last season, but the big offseason change was to bring touchbacks out to the 35 instead of the 30. It’s amazing what a difference five yards of field position has made. Returns are way up and touchbacks are way down.
It can also be hard to fully measure public opinion, but it feels like things have been … mostly positive? There may have been some early grumbling about needing announcers to brief viewers every week about where the ball can and can’t land, but I think complaints have mostly subsided.
The new emphasis on returns has led to some interesting moments, like the Vikings’ Ty Chandler looking at Kevin O’Connell to see whether he should take a kick out of the end zone late in Week 1, the Seahawks recovering their own kickoff in the end zone for a touchdown in Week 2 and extra clock management questions around the two-minute warning. We’ve been introduced to strange loopholes like Steelers special teams coach Danny Smith knowing to kick out-of-bounds after a penalty improved field position. Greg Olsen said on our Jimmy Traina’s podcast that teams should stop kicking short field goals because they’ll only give the ball back to opponents with great field position. You can go on a game-winning drive in 30 seconds, and several teams have.
It’s been fun! I think the fact that it’s made the game more interesting and that some of the complexities have been well received is a bit of a welcome surprise in a world where people often hate complicated new things.
Clare Brennan: The Lions haven’t missed Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson
There was a lot of speculation heading into the season about how Dan Campbell and the Lions would fare without defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Both had moved on, taking head coaching positions—Glenn with the Jets and Johnson with the Bears—leaving many wondering where that left the Lions. While a flashy Week 9 win from Johnson and the Bears, coupled with a Detroit loss to Minnesota, may sting for Lions fans, the team has handled the staffing changes well overall.
New DC Kelvin Sheppard earned praise during a signature Monday-night game against the Buccaneers in Week 7, as his injury-laden defense held the Bucs to nine points. The offense has had its moments as well, with OC John Morton leading the Lions to 350.8 yards per game (11th in the league) and 29.9 points per game (third). There’s no doubt the team’s O-line has had its struggles, which have been compounded by injury, and Detroit’s offense looked to be sputtering in its Week 9 loss to the Vikings. Was it a one-game fluke or indicative of mounting issues? The success (or failure) of the Lions’ offense will be a storyline to watch in the second half of the season, as will Morton’s leadership at the helm of the unit.
Intriguing second-half storylines
Albert Breer: Can someone break the glass ceiling in the AFC?
The Bills and Chiefs have been perennial contenders. The Ravens and Bengals were right there with them, in spots. And it’s no coincidence: Over the first half of this decade (2020 to ’24), those four teams with the league’s consensus top four quarterbacks, have accounted for all 10 berths in the AFC title game, and accounted for three of four spots in the divisional round every year. They’ve had a chokehold on the conference.
Now, three teams lead the AFC at 7–2—the Colts, Patriots and Broncos—that have combined for just two playoff appearances, and no playoff wins, over that period.
Will those teams hold up over the second half of the year? Can they actually go toe-to-toe with the established big dogs of the conference? I can’t wait to find out.
Conor Orr: The Commanders are in jeopardy
I would like to know what’s going to happen to the Commanders. I took a lot of heat this offseason for suggesting the team was giving up too much valuable draft capital in order to expedite its rebuild and chase last season’s NFC championship game run. While the Jayden Daniels injury has made the team’s fortunes even bleaker, it was clear Washington was struggling in 2025 to rediscover the magic from last year even before Daniels went down.
The Commanders have six picks next year, but no second-round pick, and are one of the oldest rosters in the NFL. Will we see coaching changes, especially on defense? Will we see veterans cut or benched? What will the Commanders do to solidify a core around Daniels, whose best weapons (Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz) are 30, 29 and 35 years old, respectively? While the Robert Griffin III comp is not apt, there is undoubtedly pressure on the new regime to normalize a healthy and sustainable environment around its quarterback. Dan Quinn is a big part of that, but like any coaching staff, it will require some fine-tuning.
Gilberto Manzano: The AFC West and NFC West could each have three playoff teams
With California hosting Super Bowl LX, it would be fitting if the AFC West and NFC West face off in the big game on Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
Obviously, the Eagles, Bills and other contenders from different divisions will have something to say about that. But the numbers will likely be in favor of the AFC West and the NFC West, with both divisions well-positioned to have at least three playoff teams.
Currently, the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers are in the NFC playoff picture. The Broncos and Chargers are on the inside of the AFC’s playoff picture, while the three-time conference champion Chiefs are a half-game behind the Jaguars for the final wild-card spot. Given their impeccable track record, Kansas City will likely clinch a playoff spot. However, it won’t be easy for the AFC West to land three playoff spots because the AFC South and AFC East are much improved with the rise of the Colts and Patriots this year.
And don’t rule out the NFC North having three playoff teams for back-to-back seasons because it’s currently the only division with all four teams having a .500 record or better. But you could argue that the trio of the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers have played better than the top teams in the NFC North with how inconsistent the Packers and Lions have been the first two months.
Matt Verderame: Can the Ravens make a run?
The Ravens began the season 1–5, primarily because the defense was ranked toward the bottom in a litany of categories while Lamar Jackson missed time with a hamstring injury. In Week 8, Baltimore was once again without Jackson, but managed to beat the Bears, 30–16.
Now, with Jackson back and the Ravens at 3–5 after a blowout victory over the Dolphins, Baltimore appears to be on the way toward a run to the postseason.
While the Ravens still have a long road ahead, they also have many winnable games left, including dates with the Bengals twice, the Jets and the Browns. Baltimore also has two games against the AFC North–leading Steelers, including a Week 18 date in Pittsburgh, which could determine who hosts a playoff game and who ends up out of the postseason picture altogether.
Over the past few weeks, there’s been reason to think the Ravens are starting to turn things around beyond Jackson’s return. After allowing 33.8 points per game through the first five games, Baltimore has allowed only 13.0 points per game across the past three.
If the Ravens get into the playoffs, they’ll be one of the most dangerous teams, entering white-hot and with a two-time MVP quarterback. For Baltimore to make such a move, it’ll take near-perfect football over the final two months.
Greg Bishop: The kicker revolution will net a 70-yard field goal
America has caught on to the best trend in professional football, but not in full. Take Dallas, for example, where Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey should be lauded on the same level as quarterback Dak Prescott, who is playing the best football of his career. Aubrey is simply that good, especially from longer and longer distances, which makes his impact, at the forefront of this revolution without precedent, not as high but in the neighborhood. When’s the last time someone said that about a kicker? But here we are.
The Buccaneers’ Chase McLaughlin is 8-of-8 from 50-plus this season, with a long of 65. The 49ers’ Eddy Piñeiro is 6-of-6 from 50-plus with a long of 59. Aubrey is 5-of-6 from 50-plus (after a miss from 68 yards Monday night), with his attempts from that distance likely down, due to Prescott and the offense’s elite play. His long of 64 this season is shorter than the 65-yarder he made last year. He is 29-of-33 from 50-plus for his career, now slightly more than 2.5 NFL seasons long. Within that tally, he has made five field attempts from 60 yards or beyond. He is capable of more, and his head coach, Brian Schottenheimer, has said publicly, this season, that he considered and “would have tried” an attempt of “70-ish.”
Six NFL field goal booters have made at least one attempt from 60 yards or farther this season. The bet here is that someone in the second half—whether Aubrey, McLaughlin, Jacksonville’s Cam Little (who hit a record 68-yarder this week) or Minnesota’s Will Reichard; big, booming legs, all—will attempt a 70-yard field goal under ideal conditions and set NFL history, the unthought of kind, in motion.
Michael Rosenberg: Will Kansas City and Buffalo win their divisions?
K.C. is going for its 10th consecutive AFC West title, and Buffalo is looking for its sixth AFC East in a row, and right now, neither one is in first place. The Bills would appear to have an easier road to the division title: At 6–2, they are just a half game behind the 7–2 Patriots. But New England’s remaining schedule includes two games against the Jets, one at home against the Giants, one against the Joe Flacco Bengals, and a home game in January against a Miami team that hated bad weather even when it had something on the line. They also already beat the Bills and the rematch is in Foxborough. Kansas City has to jump over Denver and the Chargers, but the Chiefs will get the Broncos twice and L.A. at home. It’s very possible that neither Patrick Mahomes nor Josh Allen will play a postseason home game.
John Pluym: Can the Packers lock down the NFC’s top seed?
O.K., call me crazy. I know the Packers just lost to Carolina. However, Green Bay was looking pretty damn good, especially after acquiring Micah Parsons from the Cowboys. He’s been dominant since his arrival, and the Packers have been dominant at times, too. But now the jury is out after Sunday’s stunning loss at home. We will find out how good this team is on Nov. 10, when they host the Eagles on Monday Night Football.
The Packers will have to overcome the loss of tight end Tucker Kraft, who was on the verge of stardom before tearing his ACL on Sunday. Still, Green Bay has done an outstanding job of supplementing its roster through free agency and trades.
One player who has been consistent this season is running back Josh Jacobs. Signed in free agency in 2024, Jacobs has rushed for 534 yards on the season and already has 10 touchdowns. He’s also a valuable piece in the passing game, averaging 8.9 yards on 23 receptions. Parsons, meanwhile, has 6.5 sacks and will likely win Defensive Player of the Year (sorry, Myles Garrett). In my opinion, Parsons has a strong case to be the league’s MVP. He’s been Lawrence Tayler–esque this season.
But the one player Green Bay will need the most to lock down the top seed is Jordan Love. He’s completing 71% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He was outstanding against the Steelers in Week 8. And he plays for one of the best play-callers in the league, Matt LaFleur, who is due to get this team to the Super Bowl.
And here’s one more cool note: Bart Starr, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers all won championships for the Packers at age 27. Guess who just turned 27 on Nov. 2? Yep, Mr. Love.
Mitch Goldich: Will we finally see fresh blood deep in the playoffs?
Every year after the wild-card round, I write a piece ranking all 16 possible Super Bowl matchups. The past couple of years, the piece has gotten a little stale to put together because it feels like I’m writing about the same teams and the same hypothetical matchups over and over. While some of them haven’t made it to the Super Bowl during that stretch (Bills, Ravens), it’s still the same list of playoff stalwarts every year, even after we start eliminating teams.
The league feels more wide open this year than it’s been in a long time, and I’m interested to see if we’ll actually get some new blood on championship Sunday. Nothing against Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, who have given us plenty of playoff entertainment against each other. But I think I’m ready to see something fresh instead of more rematches.
What if the NFL’s final four gives us four quarterbacks who have never played in the Super Bowl? I think that would give us a ton of storylines and drama, and there are still enough really good teams to make it worth our while.
It is amusing that the teams atop the AFC (Colts, Patriots, Broncos) are not the ones that have dominated this current era, but are the exact ones that dominated the era before it. So maybe the AFC title game won’t exactly feel like the NFL’s version of Blue Jays–Mariners in the ALCS. But still, some fresh faces would make things interesting, and I wonder if this is the first year in a long time that makes us look at a partially filled-in playoff bracket and say, “Huh, that’s new.”
Clare Brennan: Can Matthew Stafford lead the Rams to the top of the mountain (again)?
Matthew Stafford is firmly in the MVP conversation, despite being 37 years old and in his 17th NFL season. He leads the league in touchdown passes (21) while throwing just two interceptions through eight games. In the Rams’ Week 9 thrashing of the Saints, Stafford threw for 281 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions, only adding to his case. Josh Allen may be the MVP betting favorite midway through the season, but Stafford is certainly giving the Bills’ signal-caller a run for his money.
Outside of individual accolades, Stafford has a chance to lead the Rams back atop the NFC West, with his team currently tied with the Seahawks for the top spot at 6–2. San Francisco isn’t far behind, with a 6–3 record heading into a crucial Week 10 matchup against the Rams. With back-to-back games against the 49ers and Seahawks, the coming weeks will tell us a lot about the Rams’ ceiling. The team’s two losses (to the Eagles and 49ers) have been narrow affairs, coming down to the wire. Should Los Angeles be able to pull out wins during a challenging stretch of the schedule, it could vault the Rams into the conversation as a Super Bowl contender and Stafford into MVP frontrunner status.
Super Bowl LX predictions
Albert Breer
- Preseason pick: Bills 34, Rams 27; Josh Allen MVP
- Midseason pick: Bills 34, Rams 27; Josh Allen MVP
… Because I’m never wrong? Well, that, and I think both teams have managed their rosters through the early parts of the year—the Bills through a mess of injuries, and the Rams in not leaning too hard on Matthew Stafford to win games, even when they could. My guess would be that these two talented, battle-tested outfits will be ready to roll, and operating at full throttle, when it counts.
And really, my reasons for picking this Super Bowl now, compared to two months ago, haven’t changed. The Bills are as balanced as they’ve been in a few years, and are young (so they should keep getting better as the year goes on). Meanwhile, Sean McVay has remade the Rams as a rugged, tough, physical team (in part as a response to how the Niners used to beat L.A.) that doesn’t need a zillion yards from the quarterback to win. These dynamics naturally put less on the quarterback, which should give Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen an even better shot to make it to Santa Clara, and put on a show when we get there.
Conor Orr
- Preseason pick: Bills 35, Eagles 32; Josh Allen MVP
- Midseason pick: Bills 37, Eagles 30; Josh Allen MVP
I’m sticking with my original prediction because nothing has really happened over the past few months to lead me to believe otherwise. Of the upward-trending NFL middle class, only the Seahawks and Colts seem to have the potential to cause legitimate trouble in the playoffs, but even they have shown moments of weakness. The Eagles and Bills are not even close to playing their best football right now—Philadelphia with a sputtering run game and the Bills, seemingly, with only a running game. That leads me to believe there’s an unseen ceiling as we get closer to January and February. These are probably the two most talented teams, top to bottom, and two of the better-coached teams in the NFL top to bottom. In situations like this, we’re playing the odds, and while I could see a team like Seattle entering the conversation, I probably would have said the same thing about the Bengals a few months ago or the Ravens before that. I just don’t view that many teams as truly elite enough to weather a playoff’s worth of chaos. So, we go chalky and we pick one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL as a possible Super Bowl MVP candidate.
Gilberto Manzano
- Preseason pick: Lions 34, Ravens 31; Amon-Ra St. Brown MVP
- Midseason pick: Lions 34, Ravens 24; Amon-Ra St. Brown MVP
After staring at the current AFC standings for a few minutes, I’m going to stick with the Ravens. While I like seeing new contenders, I’m just not ready to fully commit to the surprising Colts and Patriots. I worry about these two teams in potential meetings against the experienced contenders such as the Chiefs and Bills. But I also don’t trust Buffalo’s defense and at some point fatigue has to set in for Kansas City, which has made the Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons. And, no, I’m not a believer in Bo Nix and the Broncos. And the Chargers just lost left tackle Joe Alt to another ankle injury.
With that said, I’m going to gamble on the Ravens making a late surge to claim the winnable AFC North. Lamar Jackson is back and the defense has turned it around the past two games. The 3–5 Ravens are only two games behind the 5–3 Steelers, and the teams play each other twice down the stretch.
And sticking with the Lions to win it all can also be viewed as a gamble because they’re 1–2 in the NFC North. But I believe the high-powered offense will come alive when it matters most. This is a well-coached team on both sides of the ball, one that didn’t get enough attention in the offseason because former coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn left for head coaching jobs. It’s safe to say that Detroit will be perennial contenders for as long as coach Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes are around.
Matt Verderame
- Preseason pick: Chiefs 30, Rams 20; Patrick Mahomes MVP
- Midseason pick: Chiefs 30, Rams 27; Patrick Mahomes MVP
How good are the Chiefs? They’re 5–4, in third place in the AFC West and some books still have them as the Super Bowl favorites.
Ultimately, Kansas City is the proven commodity in what has become a wide-open race. The Chiefs have been to five of the past six Super Bowls, winning three. They’ve reached the AFC title game each of the past seven years. Patrick Mahomes has never lost an AFC playoff game in regulation, and never lost a road postseason affair.
As for the Rams, why not? Los Angeles has quarterback Matthew Stafford playing at an MVP level. He’s throwing to one of the league’s best receiver duos in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. The offensive line has also been terrific, leading to Stafford’s lowest pressure rate since coming to Los Angeles in 2021.
The Rams have stiff competition in the NFC with the Eagles, Packers, Lions, Buccaneers and Seahawks all playing like legitimate Super Bowl threats, but give me a quarterback and coach who have rings, and one of the best defensive lines in the business.
Greg Bishop
- Preseason pick: Ravens 31, Vikings 27; Lamar Jackson MVP
- Midseason pick: Eagles 35, Bills 14; Saquon Barkley MVP
You know, the prognostication game is a silly enterprise, a dartboard where the target moves and the movement is fluid, unpredictable, dictated, primarily, by injuries and roster depth. I’m not saying that because my pick here looks terrible, nor because it is … terrible. I’m saying that because I’ve done these in all manner of ways—deep research; by instinct; based on the best narratives; in the car, soliciting input from my crew on the way to Burning Man—and what I’ve found, based on no more than anecdotal evidence, is that less thought equals better results. Sometimes, that yielded a nearly perfect playoff bracket—one game off—and I don’t recall SI editors splashing my correct predictions atop new ones like we’ve done here.
With my initial picks, I did my bracket by instinct. It came out as a rematch of the last Super Bowl, Eagles vs. Chiefs. I’ve written tons about both teams and wondered if the selections appeared or could appear tied to a familiarity bias. I started over. I desired to pick one team that wasn’t in last year’s championship game. I landed on the Ravens, having given the pick very little thought. It looked even worse three weeks ago. It looks better now. Baltimore’s season is not over. Lamar Jackson should be back. Who knows? Apparently, not me! So … I like the Bills, and I still like the Eagles. And I look forward to you laughing at me in about three months.
Michael Rosenberg
- Preseason pick: Ravens 28, Lions 27; Derrick Henry MVP
- Midseason pick: Lions 31, Ravens 30; MVP Jahmyr Gibbs
Yes, I’m picking the Ravens again, even though they are 3–5. Am I stubborn and delusional? Perhaps! But also: The AFC feels pretty wide open, the North is winnable, and I think after failing to live up to expectations in January in the Lamar Jackson era, the Ravens might benefit from being written off. As for the Lions, that pick is pretty simple. I think top to bottom, they have the best team in the NFL. Injuries wrecked their dreams last year. If they can stay relatively healthy, I think that’s the team to beat.
John Pluym
- Preseason pick: Bills 28, Eagles 24; Josh Allen MVP
- Midseason pick: Packers 31, Chiefs 28; Jordan Love MVP
I still like the Eagles. I know they’re the defending Super Bowl champions. But there’s too much drama with Philly. I don’t think they’ll overcome all the distractions this season.
Meanwhile, if Green Bay locks down the top seed, good luck to the other NFC teams trying to win at Lambeau. Over in the AFC, the Chiefs seem to have found their groove now that Rashee Rice is back and Xavier Worthy is healthy, plus Isiah Pacheco should be back after the bye. As long as Patrick Mahomes is playing quarterback for Kansas City, it’s hard to bet against the Chiefs.
Mitch Goldich
- Preseason pick: Ravens 27, Lions 23; Lamar Jackson MVP
- Midseason pick: Bills 27, Lions 23; Josh Allen MVP
Allow me to jump off my preseason Ravens picks, though some of my brave (stubborn?) colleagues have stuck with them. I’ll still take credit if my original pick proves to be right. I’ll admit that at this time last week I probably would have talked myself into the Chiefs coming out of the AFC, going against my personal tenet not to pick teams to return to the Super Bowl in consecutive years (a personal belief Kansas City has made look foolish before). But seeing how the Bills beat them up on Sunday was enough for me to envision them doing that to every other AFC team in their way before they get to the Super Bowl.
In the NFC, I still think the Lions have the most talent up and down the roster across both sides of the ball. As long as they stay healthier than they did last year, I think this will be the year they finally get there. Bring on the fabled Super Bowl for the long sufferers.
In my second-half blurb above, I mentioned it would be fun to see four quarterbacks on championship Sunday who haven’t been to the Super Bowl. Jared Goff has, but doing it with the Lions would still qualify as new and interesting.
Clare Brennan
- Preseason pick: Lions 27, Ravens 24; Jared Goff MVP
- Midseason pick: Lions 31, Bills 28; Jahmyr Gibbs MVP
I am going to stand by my preseason prediction that the Lions will make it to the Super Bowl, but it won’t be the Ravens that they face. The Lake Erie Bowl is heading west, with Dan Campbell’s team taking on the Bills in Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara. Josh Allen will finally get over the postseason hump, improving on last year’s run to the AFC championship, and make it to the Big Game. And Jared Goff will make a triumphant return to his home state (and the home state of the team that unceremoniously dealt him to Detroit five years ago), leading the Lions to their first Super Bowl appearance. Both teams’ long-beleaguered fan bases will finally be rewarded with their day in the sun.
I’ll make another slight tweak to my preseason prediction and forecast Jahmyr Gibbs to win Super Bowl MVP rather than Goff, with the star running back cutting up a porous Bills run defense. Expect an explosive affair in this matchup, with Buffalo leading the league in yards per game (385.5), while the Lions and Bills are third and fourth in points per game, with 29.9 and 29.4, respectively.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 NFL Midseason: First-Half Surprises, Second-Half Storylines, New Super Bowl Picks.
