The 2023 NFL regular season is over. The games that actually count are finally upon us.
This year’s 14-team playoff bracket features a heady brew of postseason standbys and new contenders we may not have expected to make it to a 19th week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams each shook off the idea of rebuilds in order to rise to the top of a disheveled NFC. The Green Bay Packers, led by an occasionally great, occasionally anonymous Jordan Love, joined them.
The AFC saw all four teams in the North finish the year with winning records. And while Jake Browning couldn’t get the Cincinnati Bengals to the playoffs, Joe Flacco and Mason Rudolph emerged from the ether to get the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively, within striking distance of Super Bowl 58.
So what does the playoff bracket look like? And what are the best games and biggest upset possibilities of the Wild Card round? Read on to find out.
The AFC bracket
Top seed: Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
Wild Card matchups:
- (5) Cleveland Browns at (4) Houston Texans: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
- (6) Miami Dolphins at (3) Kansas City Chiefs: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (Peacock)
- (7) Pittsburgh Steelers at (2) Buffalo Bills: Sunday, Noon ET (CBS)
Best game: Dolphins at Chiefs
OK, “best” is subjective here. This is a game with a potential “feels like” temperature in the negative teens. It’s going to be bitterly cold in Kansas City, turning deep throws into rapidly descending cannon balls and every hit, no matter how minor, into a symphony of pain with accompaniment from ground that’s long since frozen into a densely packed solid.
That means the level of play is going to be gross, and the Dolphins and Chiefs are both sorta built for that. Kansas City won the AFC West, partially because the division was a mess but partially because it was able to overcome a certain level of slop produced by bad play from the team’s wideouts and questionable decisions from its MVP quarterback. Miami made it to the playoffs and inspired zero confidence along the way, beating exactly one team with a winning record. But the Dolphins can put up points in a hurry, and one busted coverage could be all it takes for Tyreek Hill or De’Von Achane to rip off a game-changing play and put their team in front.
This game will almost certainly be ugly, But at a certain point, there’s a beauty in that grossness. Dolphins-Chiefs in subzero temperatures will invite us to revel in the slop, waiting for the fleeting moments of bliss that resemble the fireworks we’d otherwise expect from Hill’s return to western Missouri.
Best chance for an upset: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Speaking of ugly! It’s impossible to know which version of the Bills will show up any given week, seeing as this team went from 14 percent playoff odds to an AFC East title over the course of a five-game win streak to wrap the 2023 season.
Pittsburgh managed to win 10 games with Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky behind center. We know they can thrive despite chaos. We know that defense can capitalize if the Allen that came out in the first half against the Dolphins missing throws and tossing more interceptions (two) than touchdowns) emerges again. It won’t be easy in Buffalo, but the Steelers won’t be put off by the cold and would be happy to grind this game down to a rock fight.
The NFC bracket
Top seed: San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Wild Card matchups:
- (7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Dallas Cowboys: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
- (6) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Detroit Lions: Sunday, 7:00 p.m. ET (NBC)
- (5) Philadelphia Eagles at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET (ABC)
Best game: Rams at Lions
This is the Jared Goff revenge game. And Matthew Stafford’s chance to crush the hopes of the franchise that drafted him and cut his paychecks for 12 years. The Lions are celebrating their first division title since the first Bush administration but showcased some key deficiencies in their secondary in a Week 18 win over the Minnesota Vikings. Their reward is facing Stafford and his lineup of big time playmakers at Ford Field after Los Angeles shrugged off the idea of a rebuild behind a cache of young, unheralded prospects who made an immediate impact.
Best chance for an upset: Packers at Cowboys
The Cowboys have been great at home, but they’ll be up against a Green Bay team whose 17-9 win over the Chicago Bears in Week 18 fails to capture their dominance. Dramatic playoff victories over Dallas were high points in the Aaron Rodgers era, and now Jordan Love will attempt to step into that inheritance like he did his mentor’s ownership of the Bears. With a deep young core of receivers on which to rely, Green Bay could turn Sunday’s game into a shootout — and put Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy’s famously inept clock management to the test.
