The Minnesota Vikings offseason is going to be quite a fascinating one.
Over the next few weeks, the franchise is going to have to make some potentially altering decisions. Kirk Cousins is a free agent this March and a potential extension is going to be difficult to parse out for many reasons.
They also have to look at multiple edge rushers who are free agents in Danielle Hunter, Marcus Davenport and D.J. Wonnum. There are a lot of fascinating ways the Vikings can rebuild this roster and the defense.
There is one major elephant in the room. Will the Vikings trade up to get the quarterback of the future? Sitting at 11th overall, the Vikings have some room to make a trade. What could a trade up look like to go get the quarterback of the future? How much would the Vikings have to give up to get one of Drake Maye, Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels?
In order to answer that question, we need to take a look at historical examples over the last 10+ years.
2023: Carolina Panthers
Panthers get: First overall pick
Bears get: 9th overall pick, 61st overall pick, 2024 first-round pick, 2025 second-round pick, WR D.J. Moore
The Panthers traded up to get Bryce Young.
2023: Houston Texans
Texans get: Third overall pick, 105th overall pick
Cardinals get: 12th overall pick, 33rd overall pick, 2024 first-round pick, 2024 third-round pick
After selecting C.J. Stroud at second overall, the Texans moved back up to third overall to select Will Anderson.
2021: San Francisco 49ers
49ers get: Third overall pick
Dolphins get: 12th overall pick, 2022 first-round pick, 2022 third-round pick, 2023 first-round pick
The 49ers moved up to select one of three quarterbacks and ended up taking Trey Lance.
2021: Miami Dolphins
Dolphins get: Sixth overall pick, 156th overall pick
Eagles get: 12th overall pick, 123rd overall pick, 2022 first-round pick
The Dolphins traded up to get wide receiver Jaylen Waddle after trading back from three to 12 with the 49ers minutes before.
2021: Chicago Bears
Chicago gets: 11th overall pick
New York Giants get: 20th overall pick, 164th overall pick, 2022 first-round pick, 2022 fourth-round pick
The Bears traded up to select quarterback Justin Fields.
2018: New York Jets
Jets get: Third overall pick
Colts get: Sixth overall pick, 37th overall pick, 49th overall pick, 2019 second-round pick
The Jets traded up to get one of five quarterbacks and guaranteed themselves one of three quarterbacks and selected Sam Darnold.
2018: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo gets: Seventh overall pick, 255th overall pick
Tampa Bay gets: 12th overall, 53rd overall pick, 56th overall pick
The Bills initially traded up from 22 to 12 by sending left tackle Cordy Glenn to the Cincinnati Bengals so they had ammunition to go and get quarterback Josh Allen.
2016: St. Louis Rams
Rams get: First overall pick, 113th overall pick, 177th overall pick
Titans get: 15th overall pick, 43rd overall pick, 45th overall pick, 76th overall pick, 2017 first-round pick, 2017 third-round pick
The Rams made the biggest trade-up to get the first overall pick in NFL history to select quarterback Jared Goff.
2016: Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles get: Second overall pick, 2017 fourth-round pick
Browns get: Eighth overall pick, 77th overall pick, 100th overall pick, 2017 first-round pick, 2018 second-round pick
The Eagles ended up trading Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso to the Dolphins to move up from 13 to 8 so they could move up for Carson Wentz.
2014: Buffalo Bills
Bills get: Fourth overall pick
Browns get: Ninth overall pick, 2015 first-round pick, 2015 fourth-round pick
The Bills paid a lot to move up five spots to select wide receiver Sammy Watkins.
2013: Miami Dolphins
Dolphins get: Third overall pick
Raiders get: 12th overall pick, 42nd overall pick
The Dolphins paid a small price to move up nine spots for edge rusher Dion Jordan. It ended up being one of the weakest draft classes in recent memory.
2012: Washington Commanders
Washington gets: Second overall pick
St. Louis gets: Sixth overall pick, 39th overall pick, 2013 first-round pick, 2014 first-round pick
The Commanders traded the farm to move up for Robert Griffin III.
What would it cost to trade up?
In order to properly gauge what it might cost, you have to look at what each draft pick is valued at. The best way to do that is to use a trade value chart and the Rich Hill trade chart is one that is based on historical precedent.
The Vikings are currently slated to select at the following picks with picks after the third round not numbered because compensatory selections have not been awarded.
- 11th
- 42nd
- Two fourth-round picks
- Two fifth-round picks
- Two sixth-round picks
- One seventh-round pick
The 11th pick has a value of 358 points and the 42nd pick has a value of 142 points. For the picks on day three, we will be valuing them in the middle of the round to make things easier.
- Fourth round: 25
- Fifth round: 12
- Sixth round: 5
- Seventh round: 2
To move up to each spot, it will be costly, especially with the potential quarterback tax that teams will require to make the move. The Commanders paid that heavily in 2012 and the 49ers in 2021. Here is what it would cost to move up to each spot. Keep in mind that when you trade a pick from a future year, it is valued in the middle of the round below it (ex: 2025 first round pick would be valued at 121 points, the value of pick 48 in the second round)
- Pick 10 (369): 11 and a fifth-round pick (370)
- Pick 9 (387): 11 and a fourth-round pick (383)
- Pick 8 (406): 11 and two fourth round picks (408)
- Pick 7 (426): 11, fourth round pick, 2025 second round pick (440)
- Pick 6 (446): 11, 2025 first round pick (482)
- Pick 5 (468): 11, 42, 2025 first round pick (596)
- Pick 4 (491): 11, 42, fourth-round pick, 2025 first-round pick (621)
- Pick 3 (514): 11, 2025 first-round pick, 2026 first-round pick (539)
- Pick 2 (717): 11, 42, 2025 first-round pick, 2026 first-round pick (681)
- Pick 1 (1,000): 11, 42, two fourth-round picks, 2025 first-round pick, 2025 second-round pick, 2025 third-round pick, 2026 first-round pick, 2026 second-round pick (838)
When you take a look at the values, they don’t all match up evenly and you can see with trading up to first overall, they are still 162 points away from actually getting to equal value. That isn’t likely to happen, but moving up to second overall based on what the chart says is very plausible.
The reason why we looked at all of the noteworthy trades in the top 10 is to not only show precedent on what trades look like, but also to compare them to the historical value trade chart.
The likely comparison that will continue coming up is the 2021 49ers who sent two additional first-round picks and a future third-round pick. Last season with a quarterback on the board, the Texans paid a first and third from 2024 while sending picks 12 and 33 plus getting 105 back in return.
The key here is going to be how a trade gets inflated due to the quarterback tax. How much extra will a team want the Vikings to pay to come up from 11th overall? That remains to be seen but the standard is going to be those Texans and 49ers trades.
We know that Adofo-Mensah tried to move up last year for Anthony Richardson and he would likely want to to that again if he found the right player to target.
