We’ve reached the final lap of draft season.
If that sentence doesn’t give you a sense of excitement, then check your pulse. While the pre-draft process can be fun, it tends to overstay its welcome by late April. Between the number of mock drafts and discussions revolving around prospects, there comes a time when the process becomes a little tiring.
As a result, let’s take a minor step back from your typical NFL Mock Drafts. Instead of predicting how teams will pick, this mock is who I, the author, would select at each spot.
As a note, this mock still includes trades but does not involve potential compensation. Predicting the running rate for a pick in this year’s draft seems like a near-impossible challenge, especially with the number of quarterbacks who could go in the top 10.
Without further ado, here’s your “what I would do” NFL Mock Draft.
1. Carolina Panthers: Ohio State QB CJ Stroud
There’s been increased discussion around C.J. Stroud’s perceived ceiling in the NFL, but I want to use this space to say to disagree with that notion. Stroud doesn’t have the most potential out of any quarterback in this class, but he also doesn’t need to because his floor is already so high. Stroud enters the NFL as an immediate impact player at the most valuable position on the field, and that should matter.
For whatever skills Stroud might lack, he makes up for it with his ability to play the position. Whenever Stroud was presented with a problem, he often had an answer that helped his team win games. Sure, he didn’t test well in the S2 test, but I don’t care. His film speaks for itself.
2. Houston Texans: Alabama QB Bryce Young
The Houston Texans could choose an edge rusher (Will Anderson, Jr.?) here, but quarterback makes too much sense. After letting the Davis Mills experiment run its course, the Texans can usher in the Demeco Ryans era with a franchise quarterback — it’s really a no-brainer.
Bryce Young’s frame is a limitation you can’t fix, and he realizes that. Instead of trying to play as a pocket passer, Young is at his best out of the pocket, especially when plays break down. That’s mostly a testament to his calm demeanor and ability to read the entire field, which can both translate to the NFL. There’s a chance that Young flames out, but NFL general managers should be willing to bet on their offensive masterminds finding a solution to his height concerns.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Alabama EDGE Will Anderson Jr.
If the Arizona Cardinals can swap first-round picks with the Indianapolis Colts, trading down would be beneficial. Otherwise, the Cardinals would benefit from staying put and selecting a potential superstar in Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr.
While the Cardinals would benefit from more picks, their current roster is void of high-end talent, and selecting in the top 5 is a perfect time to solve that problem. Like Young, Anderson has some size deficiencies, but his traits and production make him the closest thing to a surefire prospect in this year’s draft.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Florida QB Anthony Richardson
Florida’s Anthony Richardson is far from a finished product, but the workings of a unique talent at quarterback are there. There were plenty of moments on tape where Richardson’s arm talent and athleticism showed, and there were other times when the lack of experience and accuracy reared its ugly head. The question for Richardson isn’t if he can be a good quarterback but if he will be a good quarterback.
Heading to Indianapolis is a perfect place for Richardson to try and reach his ceiling. The Colts have a good running back (Jonathan Taylor) and wide receiver (Michael Pittman), and new head coach Shane Steichen comes from Philadelphia, where he helped develop Jalen Hurts. Betting on a talent like Richardson isn’t difficult, but helping him hone his craft will be the decider.
5. Seattle Seahawks: Georgia DL Jalen Carter
Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter has some off-the-field questions that need to be answered — including a reckless driving and racing charge related to a Jan. 15 accident that resulted in the death of Georgia offensive tackle Devin Willard and staffer Chandler LeRoy — but Carter’s talents on-the-field are undeniable.
There have been very few interior defensive linemen who can impact the game like Carter does, and those that have are among the best players in the league. Carter’s talents landing in Seattle might be the perfect thing for his career as well because head coach Pete Carroll has built a culture that allows players to thrive. If his concerns off the field can be solved, Carter could be an elite pass rusher from the defensive tackle position.
6. Detroit Lions: Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez
The Detroit Lions spent free agency addressing the cornerback position, but their secondary isn’t a finished product. Emmanuel Moseley and Cameron Sutton are fine players, but neither is good enough to prevent you from taking a potential lockdown cornerback.
Christian Gonzalez is an intriguing cornerback talent because players with his ability to mirror wide receivers in man coverage while still being impactful in zone coverage can be hard to find. Gonzalez has great ball skills, but his strength can be challenged by physical wide receivers, which will have to be figured out in the NFL. Still, Gonzalez is an immediate starter at cornerback, and the Lions desperately need that.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon
The Las Vegas Raiders desperately need cornerback help, especially if the plan is to start Duke Shelley and David Long, Jr. on the boundary. While the Raiders could help solve this by re-signing Rock Ya-Sin, it’s about time they get younger (and better).
Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon and Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez are CB1-A and CB1-B, so landing either is a massive boost to the Raiders’ defensive room. Witherspoon isn’t a perfect prospect, and his limitations could hinder his overall growth, but taking a bet on Witherspoon’s feisty playstyle is a calculated risk worth taking.
8. Minnesota Vikings (via Atlanta): Kentucky QB Will Levis
Let’s get weird, shall we? As the de-facto general manager of both the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons in this experiment, I think a trade between the two makes a lot of sense.
The Falcons have been big spenders during the offseason and have at least partially addressed most of their needs. They could use another cornerback, but Jeff Okudah still has a ceiling that could be discovered. EDGE rusher is a need, but Bud Dupree and Calais Campbell are suitable half-measures. With a quarterback still on the board, trading down allows the Falcons to get draft picks to help fill the remaining holes on their roster.
While plenty of teams can move up the board, the Minnesota Vikings are still searching for their Kirk Cousins successor, and Kentucky’s Will Levis makes sense. Levis is a perfect scheme fit in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, playing in a similar system under Liam Coen at Kentucky. Levis has his problems, but he could be maximized in the NFL with consistent coaching and great weapons, and the Vikings have both of them. They’re also one of the few teams who can allow Levis to “redshirt” for his rookie season, as the Vikings still have Cousins under contract.
9. Chicago Bears: Ohio State OT Paris Johnson, Jr.
Stop me if you’ve heard these words before, but the Chicago Bears need to protect Justin Fields. While the Bears have made steps to improve their offense, including the trade down from No. 1 that included wide receiver DJ Moore, their offensive line is incomplete. Teven Jenkins is listed as the starter at right tackle, but he’s a better fit to play guard in the NFL. Braxton Jones, a second-year player, had his moments in run blocking last year, but there’s still room for improvement.
If the Bears are serious about maximizing Fields’ ability, drafting an offensive lineman with positional versatility is critical. In a way, the Bears are in a situation where they need to find their five best offensive linemen and might include an extra tackle. Ohio State’s Paris Johnson. Jr. has played both tackle positions, and his upside as a player is clear. Taking him might require some patience, but he has the athletic tools to be a reliable starting tackle in the NFL.
10. Philadelphia Eagles: Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith
Nolan Smith stole the show at the NFL Scouting Combine by running a burning fast 40-yard dash and seemingly jumping out of the gym. His 9.23 Relative Athletic Score (RAS) beings to paint a picture of how gifted an athlete he is, but his film is the color that adds meaning.
Smith wins with his athleticism on the field and has shown some moments where his bend off the edge is incredible. Smith needs some time to develop all his skills, but the Philadelphia Eagles can afford him time to hone his craft. The Eagles will likely limit Smith’s snaps early on, but that’s fine because NFL teams shouldn’t be selecting Smith for one season of impactful football.
11. Tennessee Titans: Northwestern OT Peter Skoronski
A quarterback makes sense for the Tennessee Titans, but trading up for a quarterback with their current offensive line is allowing someone to fail. It’s about time the Titans focus on building up their core for their franchise quarterback, and that has to start with the offensive line. The Titans currently have no long-term anchors along the offensive line, and relying on a tackle combination of Nicholas Petit-Friere and Andre Dillard is a… choice.
Peter Skoronski has question marks as a tackle due to his short arms, but he could develop nicely as an offensive guard in the NFL. Regardless of where Skoronski plays, selecting him is a no-brainer for the Titans and their current situation.
12. Houston Texans: Texas Tech EDGE Tyree Wilson
This year’s edge rusher class can fall in different directions depending on what teams value. While Will Anderson is the top dog, the list can get a little jumbled up outside of it. Some may like Nolan Smith’s freaky athleticism, while others might value Tyree Wilson’s upside. That’s why determining where they go is an exercise rooted in luck.
Tyree Wilson has one of the highest ceilings at the position, but he needs to continue to grow as a pass rusher to meet that potential. Dropping to No. 12 might seem like a surprise, but Wilson makes out better in the end because Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is the perfect person to help maximize his talent. Wilson can become the best edge rusher in this class, provided he continues to develop his game.
13. New York Jets: Georgia OT Broderick Jones
As we wait for the conclusion to the Aaron Rodgers saga, the New York Jets still need to build a football team. Assuming Rodges is a Jet, the logical next step is to focus on the offensive line.
Mekhi Becton has had his moments in the NFL, but his health problems are concerning. Max Mitchell and Duane Brown are their other two tackles, but Mitchell is still an unfinished product, and Brown is nearing the end of his career. With a pick in the top 15, the Jets should take an offensive tackle they can trust to stay on the field and play well, and that’s Georgia’s Broderick Jones.
14. New England Patriots: Clemson EDGE Myles Murphy
After the Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, and Nolan Smith group, the edge rusher position gets even more unclear. Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness has stolen the hearts of some for his upside, while Clemson’s Myles Murphy may have the better floor and college tape. Both are athletic and can carve out roles in the league, but Murphy enters with a better pass-rush plan than Van Ness.
That’s why he goes above Van Ness in this mock draft. Both are great fits in Bill Belichick’s defense, but Murphy can be a versatile pass rusher who can kick inside and succeed. There still needs to be some honing from Murphy, but seeing the vision in the NFL is not hard to come by.
15. Green Bay Packers: Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The Green Bay Packers are ushering in a new era at quarterback by finally giving the keys to Jordan Love. Still, letting Love run the offense won’t help the problems with the roster’s construction.
Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have potential, but neither can be relied on as a team’s primary target and are probably best served as complementary pieces. With none of the wide receivers off the board, selecting Jaxon Smith-Njigba can solve that problem. Smith-Njigba is a slot wide receiver who gets open as well as anyone in this class. He’ll likely never blossom as an elite deep threat, but he’ll provide a reliable target for Love, and that has just as much value for the Packers.
16. Washington Commanders: Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr.
If Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez weren’t in this draft, Joey Porter, Jr. would be drafted higher. However, having both of them in this class means that teams later in the round can get bargains. Porter, Jr. is an instant starter in Washington and fills one of their biggest needs. Although Porter has some limitations, his traits give him CB1 potential in the right situation, which Washington can offer.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Clemson iDL Bryan Bresee
Cornerback is still the pressing need for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the value isn’t there after Joey Porter, Jr. comes off the board. While they could slightly reach for another cornerback, there’s an opportunity for the Steelers to prepare for life after Cam Heyward.
Heyward is nearing 34 years old, and Father Time is bound to catch up with him at some point. When that happens, it would be wise for the Steelers to have his replacement brewing, and Clemson’s Bryan Bresee could be that. Bresee’s tape was rough last season, but no player had a worse time off the field than he did. If you rewind to his freshman tape, you see what Bresee can be as a run defender and disrupter.
18. Detroit Lions: Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer
This pick veers from consensus, but it’s worth a conversation given their current roster. After trading TJ Hockenson to the Vikings last season, the Detroit Lions have yet to replace him, and there should be a conversation about doing so. While Michael Mayer is not a like-for-like replacement, he’s a reliable receiving blanket who can also provide run-blocking value.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers recently signed veteran right tackle Matt Feiler to a one-year contract, but he’s nothing more than a reliable stopgap. While the Feiler signing could allow the Buccaneers to look in a different direction, Darnell Wright’s ceiling is worth taking, especially in the later half of the first round. Wright has some positional versatility, including offensive guard, but his physicality is worth keeping him at right tackle.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Alabama S Brian Branch
Finding out what the Seattle Seahawks will do with this pick is difficult, but taking a player like Alabama’s Brian Branch is a worthwhile investment. Although the Seahawks already have two safeties, Branch fits in nicely as the Seahawks’ slot cornerback and could carve a full-time role at that position. Taking a slot cornerback in the first round might be a little rich, but Branch’s ability makes him one of those “draft and figure it out later” players.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: USC WR Jordan Addison
The Los Angeles Chargers are in a unique position because there are still a few avenues that they can pursue. Following Austin Ekeler’s trade request, Bijan Robinson feels like a potential option in the first round, but the Chargers would benefit from prioritizing a larger impact initially. That leaves edge rusher as a possible pick, but the value after Murphy goes off the board is still a little murky.
Instead, a wide receiver makes sense as a combination of value and impact. Yes, the Chargers still have two good wide receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but both have battled their fair share of injuries. If the goal is to maximize Justin Herbert’s otherworldly talent, then giving him an additional weapon to throw should be a priority. While Quentin Johnston is a better talent, his playstyle is similar to Williams, meaning Johnston might struggle to find his way onto the field.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Maryland CB Deonte Banks
After playing college football just down the road at Maryland, Deonte Banks returns to Baltimore and gets to play in a city that he’s all too familiar with. Banks was born in Baltimore and played high school football in the area. Now, he’ll be trading in those high school fields for the big lights of M&T Bank Stadium.
Banks is a nice fit in the Baltimore Ravens’ defense too. The Ravens desperately need another cornerback after not re-signing Marcus Peters during free agency. While they could choose to return to Peters (he’s currently unsigned), getting younger is never a bad idea. Banks would offer lockdown potential for the Ravens and provide them with a versatile cornerback that can play in different coverages.
23. Atlanta Falcons (via Minnesota): Texas RB Bijan Robinson
Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith knows a little about game-changing running backs. While in Tennessee, Smith built an offense around one of the best running backs in football, Derrick Henry. The Titans made multiple playoff appearances during Smith’s time, as he allowed Henry’s game-breaking talents to take over.
While Bijan Robinson is not Henry, he’s a versatile and impactful running back that doesn’t come around often. Regardless of what you think about taking running backs in the first round, Robinson’s talent speaks for itself, and there’s no reason why he should still be on the board come Friday. While second-year running back Tyler Allegier had his moments in Atlanta, Robinson’s talent is too much to pass up, especially for an offense with a younger quarterback.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Iowa EDGE Lukas Van Ness
The Jacksonville Jaguars are building a formidable pass rush with Travon Walker and Josh Allen, but they could still use some quality depth across the board. While selecting depth in the first round might be a reach, the Jaguars have built a roster that can afford to reach for players that can impact the game in critical situations, like third down.
Lukas Van Ness is far from a finished product, but it’s not hard to like the physical gifts he comes in with. At 6-foot-5 and 275 pounds, Van Ness comes in as a physical monster capable of impacting the game in pass-rush situations, even if he still feels raw. Van Ness will need time to hone his craft and pass rush plan, but his versatility will allow him to find the field early for Jacksonville.
25. New York Giants: TCU WR Quentin Johnston
A rare blend of size and speed, Quentin Johnston is a player that simply pops on film. He towers above most wide receivers like a scary figure in movies, and when he gets the ball, he hits home runs like he’s Barry Bonds. The only reason he’s still on the board this late in the first round is that someone will have to fall. Until you do a mock draft, it’s hard to quantify the uniqueness within this year’s receiver class. Teams need pass catchers, but most teams desperately need other positions across the field.
Still, one man’s misfortunes are another team’s treasure. The New York Giants will benefit a ton from a player with Johnston’s skillset, and he should have no trouble impacting the game as a rookie. When the Giants go vertical, Johnston’s frame will do wonders for quarterback Daniel Jones and the offense. In a similar sense, he should be able to be a reliable intermediate target who can turn any catch into a big play.
26. Dallas Cowboys: TCU iOL Steve Avila
A tight end seems like a no-brainer for the Dallas Cowboys, but this tight end class could see some players fall into the second round. The same can’t always be said about the interior offensive line position, which has a higher level of variance in value. There’s a chance that Steve Avila is available on Friday, but the Cowboys desperately need a plug-and-play left guard that it shouldn’t matter.
Selecting Avila would allow versatile offensive lineman Tyler Smith to kick outside to left tackle, a position that likely fits him better, and give the Cowboys a formidable offensive line that doesn’t have many holes.
27. Buffalo Bills: Boston College WR Zay Flowers
The Buffalo Bills haven’t fully addressed the wide receiver position in free agency, and without a first-round running back available, that seems like the best place for them to go. Even with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, adding another element into that room benefits the entire offense.
Zay Flowers is one of the fastest wide receivers in the draft, playing more like The Flash than Zay Flowers. His speed would fit in nicely alongside the talents that Diggs and Davis offer, and Flowers could be able to carve out different roles inside the offense. It wouldn’t be the final step in improving their offense, but it would be a massive step in the right direction.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Mississippi State CB Emmanuel Forbes
There’s one major problem with Emmanuel Forbes that will determine his entire draft stock: his size. Forbes weighed in at 166 pounds, making him incredibly light for the position. Uniquely, though, Forbes came in at 6-foot-1, creating a weird frame for a prospect.
Selecting a player like Forbes could add a different element to the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense, especially if they can add a little weight to his frame. Forbes was one of the best ballhawks in college football, finishing with 14 career interceptions and six touchdowns. His aggressiveness might be a blessing and a curse, but he’s someone who can come in and make an immediate impact on defense.
29. New Orleans Saints: Northwestern EDGE Adetomiwa Adebawore
Outside of Cam Jordan, the New Orleans Saints don’t have much help across the defensive line. While trading down is an intriguing scenario for the Saints, it’s hard to envision what a team would trade up for at this point in the draft. As a result, the Saints likely need to stay at this pick and select a defensive lineman that can impact the game on day one.
Northwestern defensive lineman Adetomiwa Adebawore has risen up draft boards after an impressive pre-draft process and will likely hear his name called early in the draft. He might be too slim to play as an interior defensive lineman all the time, but his positional versatility should help him find different ways to impact the game. Adebawore is a modern-day chess piece along the defensive line and should find a way onto the field for most downs.
30. Houston Texans (via Philadelphia): North Carolina WR Josh Downs
The Houston Texans might not need to move back into the first round for Josh Downs, but with the extra picks they have at their disposal, it may be a worthwhile investment. There’s certainly a situation where the Kansas City Chiefs or Pittsburgh Steelers take a receiver, which would leave the Texans looking in other directions.
With Bryce Young and Tyree Wilson selected before this pick, getting a wide receiver is the next part of the plan, and Josh Downs is the next best receiver. Downs is a dynamic athlete that can play different roles, but his best fit will likely be in the slot. Drafting Downs gives the Texans a reliable pass-catching option without uncertainty, which is a blessing given their current offensive situation.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: LSU EDGE BJ Ojulari
I think I’m higher than the consensus on BJ Ojulari, and that’s okay. There are certainly concerns with Ojulari’s film, but his bend and quickness should help him carve out a role in the NFL. The problem is that Ojulari is likely limited to third downs early on because he’s not a positive player against the run.
Still, the Kansas City Chiefs are in a position where they can let a player like Ojulari play in certain situations early on while they coach him up as a pass rusher. This is a project pick for the Chiefs, and that’s okay. After all, they did win the Super Bowl last season.
