It’s still early in the NFL offseason, but teams are beginning to unveil their plans by making a few early moves. For the Jacksonville Jaguars, the name of the game has been saving salary cap space and keeping their AFC South championship roster in place.
The Jaguars have already re-signed C.J. Beathard and JaMycal Hasty, and extended the contract of defensive tackle Roy Robertson-Harris.
While free agency will reveal plenty more about the positions that teams will need to target in the 2023 NFL Draft, here’s a first-round mock based off the tinkering teams have done before the NFL Scouting Combine:
Trade - 1. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Conventional thought at this point is that the Bears will probably trade the No. 1 pick rather than draft Justin Fields’ replacement at the top of the class.
The problem for Chicago is that there are four quarterbacks battling to be top 10 draft picks and none is that far ahead of his peers. It’ll be tough to convince teams to sell off tons of draft capital when they could sit back and nab the third or fourth passer off the board.
A likelier scenario is that the Texans give up just a little — a second-round pick and change, perhaps — to move up one spot and box out the Colts for Young.
2. Chicago Bears (via Texans): Will Anderson Jr, EDGE, Alabama
If the Bears stay ahead of the Cardinals in the draft order, they’ll have a tough call between Will Anderson Jr. and Jalen Carter.
There’s no wrong answer, but Anderson gets the edge here (no pun intended) because of positional value. It’s just a little more important to have a scary pass rusher off the edge than a destroyer on the interior.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
There’s not much thinking for the Cardinals to do here. Now that Anderson is off the board they get the easy choice: a 6’3 rock golem who has a history of tossing collegiate offensive lineman aside like they’re kickers.
4. Indianapolis Colts: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
The Colts will likely make a pass at trading for the top pick in the draft, but they’re in good shape if a deal doesn’t come to fruition. Stroud is a fine consolation prize, who may have the most accurate arm of the class.
5. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos): Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah actually had Wilson as the top edge rusher in the class, ahead of Anderson, in his most recent most draft. I’m not willing to go that far, but Wilson still comes off the board early with the Seahawks in need of a pass rushing boost.
6. Detroit Lions (via Raiders): Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
With two edge rushers off the board in the top five of the draft, the Lions have to strike now at the position while the iron’s hot.
Murphy is similar in a lot ways to the Jaguars’ Travon Walker and can pair with Aidan Hutchinson on the other side of the Lions’ rebuilt defensive line.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Anthony Richardson Jr, QB, Florida
It’s a swing for the fences, but Richardson may be the quarterback with the most upside. He has a natural feel for the pocket, and he has the arm and physical talent to be a star.
An offense that has Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams would allow Richardson to hit the ground running.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
A defensive lineman would be ideal for Atlanta, but after the top four (Anderson, Carter, Wilson, and Murphy) there’s a drop off. Perhaps Clemson’s Bryan Bresee would make sense, but his injury history makes the top 10 a little rich.
Instead, taking the top cornerback of the draft class could be the more prudent way to get started on fixing the 25th best pass defense.
9. Carolina Panthers: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Panthers may be tempted to jump up the draft board to secure their choice of passer. In this scenario, they get the fourth off the board, which really isn’t that bad.
Levis has a lot of prototypical NFL quarterback traits and battled against some tough defenses in the SEC.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The Eagles will likely be in the market for a cornerback with James Bradberry expected to test free agency in March.
Witherspoon has a strong argument as the top cornerback in the class and would be able to start right away in the Philadelphia secondary.
11. Tennessee Titans: Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
The Taylor Lewan era is over in Tennessee and the team will have to find a better option than Dennis Daley on the left side of their offensive line. There’s a chance the Titans hunt for one in free agency, but they’re also in decent position to get a stellar one with the 11th overall pick.
Johnson played one season at left tackle at Ohio State and didn’t allow a single sack.
12. Houston Texans (via Browns): Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Texans will probably take a quarterback early, and it’d make sense to pair that player with a top receiver. In this scenario, it’s Young and their pick of any pass catcher in the class. Addison, a former Biletnikoff Award winner, would do the trick.
13. New York Jets: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
The Jets may be inclined to focus their energy on the offensive side of the ball — particularly along the line — but safety was a bit of a liability for an otherwise great defense.
Branch is a versatile defensive back who could shore up the deep middle of the field or come up and play slot cornerback too.
14. New England Patriots: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Skoronski just sounds like the name of a Patriots player, doesn’t it?
He could also be the perfect replacement for the very disappointing former first-round pick Isaiah Wynn, who appears headed for free agency.
15. Green Bay Packers: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Whether it’s Jordan Love or Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are in desperate need of some wide receiver talent. Allen Lazard is no Davante Adams, and even Lazard appears headed out of Green Bay.
Johnston is a 6’4 field stretcher who could make a significant impact right away and pair with Christian Watson to make a formidable duo.
16. Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr, CB, Penn State
Kendall Fuller is a more than reliable cornerback on one side of the Commanders defense, but 2021 third-round pick Benjamin St-Juste hasn’t been cutting it on the other side. Porter is a 6’2 press cornerback who would make the Commanders defense a scarier unit in 2023.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Steelers have to prioritize protecting Kenny Pickett if they hope to get the most out of their 2022 first-round pick. Left tackle Dan Moore was credited with allowing 34 pressures this season by PFF, sixth most in the NFL.
Jones, a First Team All-SEC selection in 2022, would provide a long-term upgrade on Pickett’s blindside.
18. Detroit Lions: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
After adding a pass rusher earlier in the round, the Lions can bolster the back end of a Detroit defense that was dead last in yards allowed in 2022. Ringo is a well-built 6’2 cornerback with tons of big game experience.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
While the Buccaneers finished with 45 sacks in 2022, seventh most in the NFL, no player on the team reached seven sacks on the year. Defensive tackle Vita Vea led the way with 6.5.
Shaquill Barrett is the most accomplished edge rusher on the team, but suffered a torn Achilles in October. Van Ness could give the team a high upside talent at the position.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
The Seahawks can get started on their defensive rebuild by picking a top pass rusher in the top five. With their second pick, Smith could pair with Tariq Woolen and give Seattle a formidable cornerback duo.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
There’s a chance the cash-strapped Chargers part with Keenan Allen this offseason to clear cap space. Even if they don’t the Los Angeles pass offense could use an influx of speed at wide receiver.
Smith-Njigba’s nagging hamstring injury limited him to only a few catches this season, but he showed in 2021 that he has the polish and skills to be a star in the NFL.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
The Ravens have done well to provide Lamar Jackson with quality tight end play, but it’s been a long time since the team had dangerous wide receivers.
Flowers is a smooth route runner who could finally give Jackson some easy windows to hit.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah
The Vikings have some promising talent in the cornerback room with 2022 draft picks Andrew Booth and Akayleb Evans, but there’s no way the team can roll with that duo, Cameron Dantzler, and 33-year-old Patrick Peterson. In Phillips, Minnesota would add a unanimous All-American to that group.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
A first-round pick on a Georgia pass rusher. It sort of seems like the Groundhog Day selection for the Jaguars, but Smith is not at all like Travon Walker.
Walker is a 275-pound tank of an outside linebacker who did well against the run as a rookie, but needs to grow as a pass rusher. Smith is a 235-pound rusher with speed to win off the edge in a hurry.
Regardless of the decision the Jaguars make in regards to Josh Allen’s rookie contract nearing its conclusion, the team needs to continue to stockpile pass rushers on defense.
25. New York Giants: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
The Giants need some offensive upgrades after spending most of the 2022 season leaning on Saquon Barkley. While four wide receivers are already off the board, New York has a chance here to take the first tight end.
Michael Mayer is the more traditional tight end, but Kincaid is a receiver/tight end hybrid who can stretch the field despite weighing in at 240 pounds.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
Bresee has the skills and physical talent to be a dangerous interior pass rusher, but he suffered a torn ACL in 2021 and still didn’t quite look right in 2022. That skillset could mean Bresee lands in the top 10, but the injury history could result in a draft day freefall.
The bottom of the first round seems like a good place for a team to take a risk and the Cowboys are a team that can afford to take that swing.
27. Buffalo Bills: O'Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
Dion Dawkins is a very reliable left tackle, but the Bills interior offensive line needs work. Landing Torrence, the consensus top guard of the class, would be a dream come true for the Bills.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
The Bengals relied on Hayden Hurst at tight end during the 2022 season, but he’s set to become a free agent after playing out his one-year deal. If Cincinnati chooses not to re-sign Hurst, tight end would be a significant need for the team in April.
29. New Orleans Saints (via 49ers): Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor
Quarterback is the biggest issue for the Saints in the 2023 offseason, but the first round is a little early for Hendon Hooker or Tanner McKee.
Instead, a 358-pound nose tackle eating space in the middle of the defense would be a good investment.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
There aren’t many holes in the Eagles roster. After replacing James Bradberry with Christian Gonzalez earlier in the first round, Philadelphia could go any direction with the 30th overall selection.
That makes the Eagles the rare team that can afford the luxury pick of a running back. Robinson is a tackle breaking machine who would be a perfect complement to Miles Sanders.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
The defending Super Bowl champions don’t have many glaring needs, but it wouldn’t hurt to add more edge rushers. Defensive tackle Chris Jones had 9.5 more sacks than any other player on the roster.
McDonald set school records at Iowa State and was a terror during Senior Bowl practices.
