In less than a week, the entire NFL and the whole of the 2023 draft class will converge upon Indianapolis for the scouting combine — an opportunity for NFL talent evaluators, scouts, and coaches to get a much better idea of the quality of this class both in on-field drills, and meetings with those prospects.
With that in mind, it’s time to expand our mock draft projections here at Touchdown Wire to the first three rounds, and the first 102 picks, in the 2023 NFL draft. There will be more trades in future mock drafts, but outside of the deal that gives the Indianapolis Colts the first overall pick, and the Chicago Bears with multiple picks in the next two years in return, we’re staying put in this one.
Here’s one version of how the first three round of the 2023 draft might just go.
(Note: The Miami Dolphins, who would have had the 21st pick in the first round, forfeited that pick as punishment from the NFL for tampering).
1. Indianapolis Colts (from Chicago Bears): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The Colts have been quarterback-light (to put it kindly) since Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement. That led to the unfortunate end of Frank Reich’s tenure as head coach, and the weird Jeff Saturday experiment, and then, the hire of former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen as the new head coach/offensive shot-caller. There’s only so much Steichen can do without a legit franchise guy, and unless Young measures 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds at the scouting combine, he’s got everything on the ball to become just that kind of NFL player.
I could explain the fit further, but a friend who has a lot of experience and familiarity with the passing game Steichen ran in Philly, as well as what Young was asked to do at Alabama, sums it up perfectly here. If the Colts trade up to secure Young’s services, it should be a franchise-defining decision in all the right ways.
On top of Pure Progressions and Progression + Alert reads, Young executed all manner of “pick a side” reads, including 1-High/2-High, MOFO/MOFC and Man/Zone reads. The RPOs spanned from Mike read, Edge read, leverage read, and more. It’s rare to get such a complete sample.
— Honest NFL (@TheHonestNFL) February 22, 2023
2. Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
There have been two C.J. Strouds through his time at Ohio State — there was the player who had all the tools in the pocket and reminded me of a young Philip Rivers, and there was the guy who went off outside the pocket against Georgia in the College Football Semifinal, and completely revised my opinion of him as a second-reaction quarterback. I suspect I’m not alone in that regard. With that in mind, the Texans should run their card up to take him with the second overall pick.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
The Cardinals have all kinds of needs to fill before they’re going to push their way back to true competitiveness, but as Carter is the best overall prospect in this class, and new head coach Jonathan Gannon naturally leans toward defense as the Eagles’ former defensive coordinator, this is an easy match. Carter is projected as a defensive tackle, but when you watch him on the edge, you think he might be able to get 10 sacks outside the tackles. That’s abnormal behavior for a 6-foot-3, 300-pound man.
4. Chicago Bears (from Indianapolis Colts): Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
The Bears had the fewest sacks (20) and the fewest total pressures (85) in the NFL last season, so the need for edge pressure is obvious. While Chicago has the money in free agency to take care of some of that, we assume that head coach Matt Eberflus would love to take Anderson’s explosiveness to the pocket and snap it right in his fronts.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The Seahawks got a total steal in the fifth round of the 2022 draft with cornerback Tariq Woolen, but through the Pete Carroll era, Seattle’s never really had bookend cornerbacks with elite ball skills. It’s time to change that by giving Carroll the best cornerback in this class with the first of many picks gleaned from the Russell Wilson trade. Witherspoon is a one-off in that he has all the aggressive erasing traits you love in a 6-foot-0, 180-pound defender, but he also has the foot quickness and anticipation abilities you expect from smaller cornerbacks. He’s a plug-and-play force for a defense that needs improvement on all three levels.
6. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams); Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Lions do not have needs at all three levels of their defense, but their cornerbacks allowed 16 touchdowns and had just three interceptions in 2022, which is sub-optimal. Gonzalez, the favorite cornerback of many in this class, would be a perfect fit in Aaron Glenn’s defense. He’s a big, aggressive cornerback who can erase receivers all the way up the boundary, and his movement skills are outstanding.
7 Las Vegas Raiders: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
It’s time for the Raiders to find a match on the other side of the edges for Maxx Crosby and his All-Pro production. Wilson is a bit of a raw prospect, but he brings insane athleticism for his 6-foot-6, 275-pound frame, and he put up eight sacks and 50 total pressures in 2022. Moreover, you can move him along the front, making him even more potentially destructive to opposing NFL offenses.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
New Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen did a lot of great work over the years as the Saints’ defensive line coach and co-defensive coordinator. His first order of business will be to fortify a line that had just 21 sacks and 88 total pressures in 2022, the NFL’s second-worst in both categories behind the aforementioned Bears. Murphy would help a great deal — he’s a power-pusher off the edge with outstanding speed to the pocket.
9. Carolina Panthers: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
New Panthers head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Thomas Brown have a clean slate at quarterback, which might remind Reich of his undefined time with the position during his time with the Colts. Maybe it’s a good idea to have a veteran stopgap at the position while developing a rookie with amazing traits, and Richardson would certainly qualify. At 6-foot-4 and 232 pounds, he’s built like a linebacker, runs like a safety, and he has the kind of arm most quarterbacks can only envy. Richardson also showed a lot of development over his first season as a starter for the Gators — under Reich and his staff, you could expect that to continue.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans Saints): Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
The Eagles still have the NFL’s most completed roster, but they’ve got a ton of potential free agent losses on the defensive side of the ball, and cornerback James Bradberry is one of them. If Bradberry moves on, perhaps general manager Howie Roseman and his staff would do well to select a cornerback with the same kinds of traits as featured by No. 1 corner Darius Slay. Porter would fit well as a big, aggressive, natural press defender who can get lost a bit in certain zone concepts, but is likely a few NFL coaching pointers away from figuring it all out.
11. Tennessee Titans: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
New Titans general manager Ran Carthon came in cutting heads out of necessity — in recent days, Tennessee has released several veterans to find a good place with their salary cap situation. One of those cuts was tackle Taylor Lewan, which points to the possibility of a new left tackle in the first round of this draft class. If that’s the case, the Titans couldn’t do any better than Johnson, who gave up just two sacks and 12 total pressures in 2022, and projects just as well in the run game — always a necessity when you’re talking about this particular offense.
12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns): Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
It may surprise some if new Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans focuses on offense with his first two picks, but the former Houston linebacker and 49ers defensive coordinator is no fool — he knows where the most pressing needs lie. Now that Houston has its new franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud, how about the addition of Johnston, the TCU star who needs a bit of refinement regarding the full route tree, but can spam enemy defenses at any level with his size (6-foot-4, 215 pounds), straight-line speed, and freaky after-catch ability.
13. New York Jets: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
To be clear, this is not the decision I would make. But some team is going to be flummoxed by Levis’ raw traits and gritty/gutty/gamer thing, and overdraft him in the first round. The Jets, who are one good quarterback away from contention, may or may not get that good quarterback over time in the form of Levis, whose skill set is offset by all kinds of weird on-field decisions. Some compare Levis to Josh Allen, but I would counter with the notion that Allen’s developmental curve was truly rare, and Levis could just as easily be a Carson Wentz… or a name even more troubling.
14 New England Patriots: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Skoronski is one of the most complete offensive line prospects in recent years — he does everything well when it’s asked of him, and though there may be size and arm length concerns for the next level, it’s also true that the Patriots don’t just have needs at left tackle — they need to firm things up all over the place. Whether Skoronski fits best at left tackle, right tackle, or guard, his technique-perfect profile would make Bill Belichick quite happy.
15. Green Bay Packers: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Whither David Bakhtiari? There’s no question that when the Packers’ left tackle is healthy, he’s one of the best in the business — but “when healthy” is doing a lot of work these days. Jones is both a high-level pass-protector and a complete mauler in the run game on the left side, and if Bakhtiari manages a full season for the first time since 2019, Jones has enough positional versatility to project him perfectly to a staff that has appreciated such things in recent years.
16. Washington Commanders: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
The legitimate excitement about the addition of new Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and all the skill players Bieniemy has to work with tends to obstruct the fact that Washington’s defense was a bit of a hot mess last season, and cornerback help is desperately needed. Last season, Smith allowed just 18 catches on 38 targets for 211 yards, 81 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, one interception, and an opponent passer rating of 71.3 He’d be an outstanding fit for whatever it is Jack Del Rio is running at any given time.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Steelers’ 2022 offense was less than effective for the most part, and with offensive coordinator Matt Canada returning for the 2023 season (much to the dismay of most Pittsburgh football fans), it’s time to give now second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett some more help. Throwing more to George Pickens would be a nice first step. The addition of Addison, a quick, flashy, route-complete receiver, would also be nice.
18. Detroit Lions: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Yes, I can feel the esteemed heads of the analytics community exploding as one over this selection. A running back at the top of the second half of the first round? No, I am not Captain Caveman. I do know, however, that Robinson forced over 100 tackles in his 2022 season ( I got that from Pro Football Focus, an analytics site, so there). That preposterous number tells you a lot of what you need to know about Robinson’s power, wiggle, and speed, and how he’d complete a Lions offense that was already on the rise in 2022.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
The Buccaneers’ obvious need is at quarterback, since that Tom Brady guy retired again — at least for now. Head coach Todd Bowles has other issues to address, like a cornerback group that mostly underwhelmed last season, and could be in real trouble if impending free agent Jamel Dean decides to go elsewhere. Ringo has a lot of up and down in his tape, and he needs to work on the transitive properties of the position, as he can get lost in space at times, but he fits the Bowles archetype as a bigger, athletic defender who isn’t afraid to go out and give receivers all kinds of love taps.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Keion White, DL, Georgia Tech
When it comes to the Seahawks and the draft… well, we’ll just smile and laugh if you say that you think you know what’s coming. Here’s what we do know: Pete Carroll and John Schneider aren’t afraid of athletic projects, at times to their own detriment, and they’re well aware that much help is required along the defensive front. White, a 6-foot-5, 286-pound every-gap pass-rushing monster who used to be a tight end at Old Dominion, has a unique athletic profile, and the potential to terrorize quarterbacks all over the front as Michael Bennett once did for the Legion of Boom.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
Second verse, same as the first: In Brandon Staley’s two seasons as the Chargers’ head coach, his proclivity for interesting coverages and light boxes have relegated his defense to the bottom of the league when it comes to stopping the run. Bresee can hold up double teams from nose tackle alignments, he can rush the passer outside the guards, and he’s got some edge potential as well. He’d at least start to stop that particular damage; a recovery project that will likely come more from personnel than scheme.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Brian Branch, DB, Alabama
In their first season under Mike Macdonald, the Ravens’ pass defense took a step back, so it might be time to attune Baltimore’s defense to Macdonald’s preference for positional versatility in the secondary. Branch would fit that like a proverbial glove, as he was the latest in a long line to annoy receivers from just about every possible position from box to slot to free. Wherever he lined up, Branch allowed 36 catches on 59 targets for 240 yards, 136 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 69.3.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah
There is no NFL defense more cornerback-light than Minnesota’s, and while the addition of new defensive coordinator Brian Flores will prove to be a massive improvement over Ed Donatell’s “Party like it’s 1999” schemes, Flores will need some erasers in the secondary who work well with his eagerness for man coverage and Cover-0 blitzes. Phillips is an underrated, sticky cornerback who can follow just about any receiver through just about any route, and he’d thrive in the kinds of stuff Flores likes to throw at opposing offenses.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
The Jaguars have some interesting young pieces at cornerback, but they’re still putting it all together. When you rank 30th in pass defense DVOA, maybe it’s time for a bit more assistance. Forbes of one of a long line of bigger, more aggressive cornerbacks in this class, and his 2022 metrics speak to his potential — 31 catches allowed on 58 targets for 284 yards, 105 yards after the catch, three touchdowns, six interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 44.7.
25. New York Giants: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Brian Daboll did an unbelievable job in his first season as Big Blue’s head coach and offensive mastermind with a quarterback in Daniel Jones who hadn’t done much of anything before his tenure, and a receiver group that really didn’t scare anybody. As a reward for all that fine work, let’s give Daboll a true No. 1 target. Smith-Njigba got lost a bit in 2022 as he missed time due to injury, but if you go back to his 2021 season, when he caught 95 passes for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns, you’ll see alpha characteristics in full — he can beat defenses with outstanding route nuance, effective quickness in and out of his breaks, and the ability to create after the catch.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M
Johnson is a tough evaluation, as you have to separate his individual performance from the schematic weirdness and iffy efficiency of the Aggies’ defense. What we do know about Johnson is that he’s a 6-foot-3, 195-pound headbanger who can wreck offenses everywhere the defensive line to free safety. Dan Quinn, who stuck around to stay as the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator, would seem to love a new chess piece with this much effective versatility.
27. Buffalo Bills: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Far too often in 2022, the Bills’ offense developed into whatever Josh Allen could do, and there was no Option B. It’s time for that to change under second-year offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who did not impress at the same level that Brian Daboll, his predecessor, did. In fairness to Dorsey, it’s tough to design an offense in which the run game is an afterthought at best. Gibbs would be an ideal fit in this offense because be brings Alvin Kamara to mind as a back who can break through tackles, create explosives runs, and add a ton in the passing game. This is not a team that is going to build everything around the run game, the Bills need a complementary force who can amplify everything around him. Gibbs is such a player.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Is it unfair to give Joe Burrow yet another target? Perhaps, but nobody ever said that the NFL was fair. The Bengals already have the league’s best receiver trio in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Adding Mayer would not only give Burrow a reliable target in the quick game (think Zach Ertz), but would also add a blocking expert who could help with Cincinnati’s ongoing protection issues.
29. New Orleans Saints (from Denver Broncos): Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
The Saints could use help at both linebacker and edge, so why not both? Simpson is the latest in an increasingly valuable strain of player who can line up just about everywhere on the field — literally from defensive line to one snap at outside cornerback — and has the athleticism to get things done at all levels.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame
We’ve already talked about the possible drain in the Eagles’ cornerback group due to free agency; there’s also the fact that (deep breath) Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Linval Joseph, Ndamukong Suh, Brandon Graham, and Robert Quinn are potential free agents along that defensive line. So, edge-rusher might be a priority in the draft, and with 12 sacks and 33 total pressures in 2022, Foskey might make an impact both on the edge and occasionally inside in Philly’s five-man fronts.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
The Chiefs managed to transcend the loss of Tyreek Hill via trade in the 2022 season, so as a reward to Andy Reid’s crew, how about the addition of Hyatt, perhaps the best pure speed receiver in this draft class? That should make defenses stand up and take notice. There are legitimate questions regarding Hyatt’s completeness as a total receiver, but he caught 14 passes of 20 or more air yards for the Vols last season on 24 targets for 677 yards, and eight touchdowns. That’s 48.4 yards per deep reception, and adding another fireball of a deep threat to this offense, given all it’s done to progress in Hill’s absence, would be thoroughly ridiculous.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Chicago Bears): O'Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida
33. Houston Texans: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
34. Arizona Cardinals: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
35. Chicago Bears: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
36. Los Angeles Rams: Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
37. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon
38. Las Vegas Raiders: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
39. Carolina Panthers: Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma
40. New Orleans Saints: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
41. Tennessee Titans: Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa
42. Cleveland Browns: Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor
43. New York Jets: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
44. Atlanta Falcons: John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota
45. Green Bay Packers: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
46. New England Patriots: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee
47. Washington Commanders: Henry To'oTo'o, LB, Alabama
48. Detroit Lions: Christopher Smith, S, Georgia
49. Pittsburgh Steelers: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
50. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA
51. Miami Dolphins: Cody Mauch, OL, North Dakota State
52. Seattle Seahawks: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
53. Chicago Bears (from Baltimore Ravens): Jarrett Patterson, OG, Notre Dame
54. Los Angeles Chargers: Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
55. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota Vikings): Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
56. Jacksonville Jaguars: Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida
57. New York Giants: BJ Ojulari, EDGE, LSU
58. Dallas Cowboys: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
59. Buffalo Bills: Steve Avila, OG, TCU
60. Cincinnati Bengals: Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State
61. Carolina Panthers (from San Francisco 49ers): Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State
62. Philadelphia Eagles: Tuli Tuipulotu, DL, USC
63. Kansas City Chiefs: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland
64. Chicago Bears: Calijah Kancey, DL, Pitt
65. Houston Texans: Derick Hall, EDGE, Auburn
66. Arizona Cardinals: JL Skinner, S, Boise State
67. Denver Broncos (from Indianapolis Colts): Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
68. Denver Broncos: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M
69. Los Angeles Rams: Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami (FL)
70. Las Vegas Raiders: Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama
71. New Orleans Saints: Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State
72. Tennessee Titans: Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
73. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns): Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
74. New York Jets: Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn
75. Atlanta Falcons: Owen Pappoe, LB, Auburn
76. New England Patriots (from Carolina Panthers): Andre Carter II, EDGE, Army
77. Miami Dolphins (from New England Patriots): Kyu Blu Kelly, CB, Stanford
78. Green Bay Packers: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern
79. Indianapolis Colts (from Washington Commanders): Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
80. Pittsburgh Steelers: Zach Evans, RB, Ole Miss
81. Detroit Lions: Jordan Battle, S, Alabama
82. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ivan Pace Jr., LB, Cincinnati
83. Seattle Seahawks: Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin
84. Miami Dolphins: Sydney Brown, S, Illinois
85. Los Angeles Chargers: Brandon Joseph, S, Notre Dame
86. Baltimore Ravens: Jaylon Jones, CB, Texas A&M
87. Minnesota Vikings: Kendre Miller, RB, TCU
88. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jammie Robinson, S, Florida State
89. New York Giants: DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Texas
90. Dallas Cowboys: Trey Palmer, WR, Nebraska
91. Buffalo Bills: Blake Freeland, OT, BYU
92. Cincinnati Bengals: Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse
93. Carolina Panthers (from San Francisco 49ers): Ji'Ayir Brown, S, Penn State
94. Philadelphia Eagles: Israel Abanikanda, RB, Pitt
95. Kansas City Chiefs: Warren McClendon, OT, Georgia
96. Arizona Cardinals: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane
97. Washington Commanders: Byron Young, DT, Alabama
98. Cleveland Browns: Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State
99. San Francisco 49ers: Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin
100. San Francisco 49ers: A.T. Perry, WR, Wake Forest
101. San Francisco 49ers: DJ Turner, CB, Michigan
102. New York Giants: Sean Tucker, RB, Syracuse
