As college basketball fans gear up for conference tournaments and March Madness, NBA scouts are busier than ever in their evaluation process.
Prospects are beginning to separate themselves as lottery picks and first-round talents, while others are fighting and clawing their way up big boards to find themselves in a draftable range.
While we can expect a ton of movement after the tournament is over, it is always helpful to take a barometer read of where things stood before all of the March Madness chaos.
Some of the players who were excluded from these projections were not listed because we project they will go back to school. We will have a much clearer picture of who is actually declaring for the draft after the early entry deadline on April 13.
Our draft order is from Tankathon and is accurate as of March 3. We will have an official draft order after the lottery on May 16. It is one of the most anticipated lotteries in recent memory as the winner will, in all likelihood, select Victor Wembanyama. But what comes next?
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1
Houston Rockets: Victor Wembanyama
Metropolitans 92, International, 7-3
FROM: France
DRAFT AGE: 19.5
STATS: 22.5 ppg (28.7 3p%, 65.2 2p%), 9.8 rpg, 2.2 apg, 2.2 stl%, 15.3 blk%
By now, even the most casual basketball fans have heard about Victor Wembanyama. Out of curiosity, I asked Magic Johnson what he thought about the highly-touted prospect. Here is what the three-time MVP said:
“This guy is going to change his franchise forever. The hype is real. He will probably make an impact like LeBron did when he first came into the league. This young man is special. I can tell how great he was when I met his parents in France. Now I see why he is such a special young man on the court and off. His parents are very involved.”
While the bar is incredibly high for Wembanyama, he said his goal is to exceed all expectations. He has done as much this year, leading the French league in points, rebounds, and blocks per game.
It doesn’t matter if it’s the Rockets or any other franchise. Whoever gets the No. 1 overall pick is sprinting to the podium to select Wembanyama.
2
Detroit Pistons: Scoot Henderson
Ignite, G League, 6-2
FROM: Marietta, Georgia
DRAFT AGE: 19.5
STATS: 16.8 ppg (28.9 3p%, 49.1 2p%), 5.1 rpg, 6.5 apg, 1.9 stl%, 1.7 blk%
Scoot Henderson is the caliber of prospect that you take no matter who else is on your roster. Although the Pistons already have a loaded young backcourt with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, Henderson recently said he would actually love to play alongside other star guards.
3
San Antonio Spurs: Amen Thompson
Elite, Overtime, 6-6
FROM: Oakland, CA
DRAFT AGE: 20.4
STATS: 16.4 ppg (25.0 3p%, 66.2 2p%), 5.9 rpg, 5.9 apg, 2.3 spg, 0.9 bpg
Amen Thompson is one of the most thrilling passers and playmakers in recent memory, and his acrobatic and athletic finishing makes him the closest thing to a human highlight reel. Thompson averaged 2.9 dunks per 40 minutes during the regular season and he recently hit an improbable game-winning shot in Game 2 of the Overtime Elite Finals.
4
Charlotte Hornets: Brandon Miller
Alabama Crimson Tide, Freshman. 6-8
FROM: Antioch, TN
DRAFT AGE: 20.6
STATS: 19.6 ppg (41.7 3p%, 52.4 2p%), 8.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.5 stl%, 2.6 blk%
There are a lot of questions about Alabama’s Brandon Miller following his alleged involvement in the death of 23-year-old Jamea Jonae Harris. Miller, however, is unlikely to get charged. As one scout told me: If he “doesn’t get arrested” then he’s still going to be a “top-5” pick.
Miller, who continues to play despite the controversy, is integral to the success of this team. Alabama has outscored opponents by 22.8 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court, per Pivot Analysis. That number drops to just 0.2 per 100 when he is off.
5
Orlando Magic: Cam Whitmore
Villanova Wildcats, Freshman, 6-6
FROM: Odenton, MD
DRAFT AGE: 19.0
STATS: 12.6 ppg (34.7 3p%, 55.7 2p%), 5.1 rpg, 0.7 apg, 3.3 stl%, 1.8 blk%
Villanova has not enjoyed the same level of success fans have expected to see from this program, but their promising freshman wing Cam Whitmore has still displayed elite flashes on the court.
Although he had an injury setback to start the season, he still has jaw-dropping athleticism. Prospects like Whitmore who have wild vertical pop and can shoot beyond the arc are almost always selected in the first half of the lottery.
It’s a swing worth taking for the Magic, a franchise that is still looking for an answer at the shooting guard position.
6
Indiana Pacers: Ausar Thompson
Elite, Overtime, 6-6
FROM: Oakland, CA
DRAFT AGE: 20.4
STATS: 16.3 ppg (29.8 3p%, 56.2 2p%), 7.1 rpg, 6.1 apg, 2.4 spg, 1.1 bpg
Ausar Thompson, like his twin brother Amen, is one of the most physically gifted prospects of the past few seasons. He was named Most Valuable Player of the Overtime Elite regular season and he had two games with at least five steals. His shooting from beyond the arc has improved during the playoffs.
7
Oklahoma City Thunder: Anthony Black
Arkansas Razorbacks, Freshman. 6-7
FROM: Duncanville, TX
DRAFT AGE: 19.4
STATS: 12.7 ppg (32.1 3p%, 52.8 2p%), 5.0 rpg, 4.2 apg, 3.3 stl%, 1.5 blk%
He needs a more consistent jumper to become the fully realized version of what he can accomplish on a basketball court. But there is something there with Black, who has advanced skills as a passer for someone his height while also bragging impactful skills as a defender.
According to Bart Torvik, Black is one of just four high-major freshmen 6-foot-7 or taller to ever record an assist percentage above 20.0 percent and a steal percentage above 3.0 percent. The other three are Scottie Barnes, Ben Simmons, and Kyle Anderson.
The Thunder will take a long look at Black if he is around in their range.
8
Orlando Magic (via CHI): Nick Smith Jr.
Arkansas Razorbacks, Freshman, 6-4
FROM: Jacksonville, ARK
DRAFT AGE: 19.2
STATS: 13.8 ppg (34.0 3p%, 41.8 2p%), 1.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.1 stl%, 0.7 blk%
After years of building a defensive core through the NBA draft, the Magic prioritized their offense last season by selecting Paolo Banchero with the first pick.
They could look to do the same by adding another potentially elite scorer in Nick Smith Jr., who recorded 25 points and 6 assists against Kentucky on March 4. While injuries have limited his playing time, he has still had a few excellent single-game scoring performances.
9
Portland Trail Blazers: Jarace Walker
Houston Cougars, Freshman, 6-8
FROM: New Freedom, PA
DRAFT AGE: 19.8
STATS: 11.1 ppg (36.1 3p%, 52.4 2p%), 6.6 rpg, 1.8 apg 2.2 stl%, 5.1 blk%
Portland has the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA and the worst among non-tanking teams. They would greatly benefit from drafting a player like Jarace Walker, one of the more promising defensive prospects of the past few seasons.
As of March 4, per Synergy, opponents were shooting just 2-for-24 on jumpers off the dribble when Walker was credited as the nearest defender. That was the best among those who have defended as many opportunities on these possessions.
10
Washington Wizards: Keyonte George
Baylor Bears, Freshman, 6-4
FROM: Lewisville, TX
DRAFT AGE: 19.2
STATS: 16.3 ppg (35.6 3p%, 43.3 2p%), 4.3 rpg, 2.9 apg, 2.2 stl%, 0.7 blk%
As the Wizards look for their long-term starting point guard to pair in the backcourt alongside Bradley Beal, Baylor’s Keyonte George should be near the top of their priority list. He is a confident, explosive scorer and he has an efficient jumper off the dribble, ranking as one of the leaders in unassisted 3-pointers per 100 possessions.
11
New Orleans Pelicans (via LAL): Cason Wallace
Kentucky Wildcats, Freshman, 6-4
FROM: Dallas, TX
DRAFT AGE: 19.6
STATS: 11.7 ppg (35.6 3p%, 51.2 2p%), 3.5 rpg, 4.2 apg, 3.7 stl%, 1.8 blk%
Every franchise could use a player like Jrue Holiday, who the Pelicans traded in 2020. Kentucky’s Cason Wallace models his game after Holiday (via On3):
“That’s a good comparison, I think, for me,” Wallace explained. “He plays on both ends of the floor, he knows how to create his own, he gets his teammates involved, he knows how to play defense and be active on both ends.”
Wallace has recently missed some time due to a lower leg injury. But he is a good playmaker, a plus defender, and a willing shooter. He is not undersized and he plays against top-tier competition at Kentucky.
When you put all of those elements together, it usually combines fairly well.
12
Utah Jazz: Gradey Dick
Kansas Jayhawks, Freshman, 6-6
FROM: Wichita, KS
DRAFT AGE: 19.6
STATS: 14.5 ppg (40.6 3p%, 48.4 2p%), 5.0 rpg, 1.7 apg, 2.6 stl%, 0.9 blk%
Even though he is in the midst of a bit of a slump, it is easy to get excited about Gradey Dick, one of the country’s most efficient players. In fact, per CBB Analytics, he ranks as one of the most accurate in the nation on non-corner 3-pointers.
He shoots well coming off the screen and off the bounce and he can even handle the rock a bit in the pick-and-roll.
13
Los Angeles Lakers (via NOP): Brice Sensabaugh
Ohio State Buckeyes, Freshman, 6-5
FROM: Orlando, FL
DRAFT AGE: 19.7
STATS: 16.4 ppg (41.2 3p%, 52.1 2p%), 5.2 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.4 stl%, 1.7 blk%
Ohio State freshman Brice Sensabaugh is a player I would prioritize.
Sensabaugh is truly a three-level scorer who has connected on 40 shots at the rim, 40 shots from midrange, and 40 shots from beyond the arc. He is doing this while carrying a true shooting percentage above 55.0 percent.
Last season, only two high-major freshmen accomplished as much: Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith. They were two of the first three players selected in the 2022 NBA Draft.
14
Toronto Raptors: Gregory "GG" Jackson
South Carolina Gamecocks, Freshman, 6-8
FROM: Columbia, SC
DRAFT AGE: 18.5
STATS: 15.3 ppg (32.5 3p%, 44.4 2p%), 6.0 rpg, 0.9 apg, 1.5 stl%, 2.7 blk%
South Carolina’s GG Jackson is one of the toughest players for me to evaluate.
He is the youngest prospect in this class and his flashes of athletic brilliance are hard to ignore. But he struggles with efficiency and South Carolina’s defense is considerably worse when he is on the court relative to when he is not.
Still, with his developmental upside, Jackson projects as a top-20 pick.
15
Atlanta Hawks: Jalen Hood-Schifino
Indiana Hoosiers, Freshman, 6-5
FROM: Pittsburgh, PA
DRAFT AGE: 20.0
STATS: 13.4 ppg (35.6 3p%, 44.4 2p%), 4.1 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.6 stl%, 0.4 blk%
Jalen Hood-Schifino has recently become one of the hottest names in scouting circles, especially after the freshman exploded for 35 points against Purdue on Feb. 25.
He needs to improve his shot selection and get better at finishing near the rim, but it’s hard to ignore a point guard with a high-feel for the game in the pick-and-roll.
16
Utah Jazz (via MIN): Jordan Hawkins
Connecticut Huskies, Sophomore, 6-5
FROM: Gaithersburg, MD
DRAFT AGE: 21.2
STATS: 16.1 ppg (38.4 3p%, 44.3 2p%), 3.9 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.6 stl%, 2.1 blk%
UCONN is 7-1 since Jan. 31, and Hawkins had five games with at least 20 points during that stretch. No D-I player has scored more points per game than Hawkins (4.6) when shooting after off-ball screens, per Synergy.
Additionally, per CBB Analytics, no high-major player has drawn more fouls on 3-pointers than Hawkins.
17
Dallas Mavericks (via NYK): Taylor Hendricks
UCF Knights, Freshman, 6-9
FROM: Fort Lauderdale, FL
DRAFT AGE: 19.6
STATS: 15.3 ppg (41.2 3p%, 52.7 2p%), 6.6 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.6 stl%, 5.9 blk%
UCF’s Taylor Hendricks is currently the only high-major freshman to connect on at least 30 dunks and 30 shots from beyond the arc so far this season, per Bart Torvik. Hendricks has also maintained the lowest turnover percentage of anyone else on record to meet those same qualifications.
Outside of Alabama’s Miller, according to Bart Torvik, he has been the best freshman in college basketball this season.
18
Houston Rockets (via LAC): Leonard Miller
Ignite, G League, 6-10
FROM: Canada
DRAFT AGE: 19.6
STATS: 16.2 ppg (25.0 3p%, 58.0 29%), 10.1 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.7 stl%, 1.8 blk%
While he was one of the most exciting prospects last season when he was more of a mystery box, Leonard Miller has since performed well for the G League Ignite.
He mostly scores the ball in the open court while in a transition offense and he still needs to work on his jumper, but he offers a very unique skill set at the next level. Miller finished with 30 points and 12 rebounds on March 3.
19
Golden State Warriors: Colby Jones
Xavier Musketeers, Junior, 6-6
FROM: Birmingham, AL
DRAFT AGE: 21.1
STATS: 15.2 ppg (40.6 3p%, 56.9 2p%), 5.2 rpg, 4.6 apg, 2.3 stl%, 1.7 blk%
Xavier’s Colby Jones is one of the most well-rounded, versatile prospects in this draft class. During a recent victory over Providence, he finished with 29 points while missing just one field goal attempt from the floor. Jones had zero turnovers in the game as well. Every team in the league could use a guy like this.
20
Miami Heat: Dereck Lively II
Duke Blue Devils, Freshman, 7-2
FROM: Philadelphia, PA
DRAFT AGE: 19.4
5.2 ppg (8.3 3p%, 70.5 2p%), 5.0 rpg, 1.0 apg, 1.6 stl%, 12.9 blk%
After a slow start to the season, Duke’s Dereck Lively has been one of the biggest risers in draft circles. On the defensive end of the floor, he is able to completely neutralize his opponent. Opponents shoot just 32.0 percent from the paint when he is on the court, per CBB Analytics. His improvements are notable.
21
Brooklyn Nets (via PHX): Kris Murray
Iowa Hawkeyes, Junior, 6-8
FROM: Cedar Rapids, IA
DRAFT AGE: 22.9
STATS: 20.5 ppg (35.2 3p%, 59.4 2p%), 8.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.7 stl%, 3.4 blk%
Although he is a bit older than most of the other first-round candidates, Kris Murray is someone who checks almost all of the boxes you could want from a prospect. He already has four separate games with at least 30 points so far this season and he projects as a solid value pick.
22
Brooklyn Nets: Terquavion Smith
North Carolina State Wolfpack, Sophomore, 6-4
FROM: Greenville, NC
DRAFT AGE: 20.5
STATS: 17.3 ppg (33.2 3p%, 40.8 2p%), 3.5 rpg, 4.4 apg, 2.6 stl%, 1.2 blk%
NC State’s Terquavian Smith was arguably the most surprising player to withdraw from the 2022 NBA Draft and return to school. He now ranks second-best among high-major players in total unassisted 3-pointers, per CBB Analytics.
During his second year playing college basketball, he has made strides as a playmaker. But his scoring efficiency has dropped, unfortunately, which he will need to fix at the next level.
23
Portland Trail Blazers (via NYK): DaRon Holmes II
Dayton Flyers, Sophomore, 6-10
FROM: Goodyear, AZ
DRAFT AGE: 20.9
STATS: 18.2 ppg (31.2 3p%, 60.9 2p%), 7.9 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.3 stl%, 5.9 blk%
Dayton’s DaRon Holmes is, without a doubt, an NBA-caliber big man.
He currently leads all college basketball players in dunks and he made all but two of his attempts when rolling to the basket after ball screens, per Synergy.
Holmes already has three games in which he has notched at least 30 points, and he is one of the best mid-major players in the country.
24
Sacramento Kings: Maxwell Lewis
Pepperdine Waves, Sophomore, 6-7
FROM: Las Vegas, NV
DRAFT AGE: 20.9
STATS: 17.1 ppg (32.5 3p%, 51.0 2p%), 5.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.4 stl%, 2.6 blk%
Pepperdine’s Maxwell Lewis has slowed down after a hot start to the season, but he still projects with a first-round grade. Even though he remains a bit too turnover-prone with the ball in his hands, scouts will remember his dominant 20-5-5 performance against Gonzaga when they are evaluating Lewis.
25
Indiana Pacers (via CLE): Brandin Podziemski
Santa Clara Broncos, Sophomore, 6-5
FROM: Greenfield, WI
DRAFT AGE: 20.3
STATS: 19.9 ppg (45.5 3p%, 51.4 2p%), 8.8 rpg, 3.4 apg, 2.8 stl%, 2.5 blk%
Santa Clara’s Brandin Podziemski has been one of the most positively impactful transfers in college basketball, exceeding expectations on both sides of the ball.
He is having a breakout season that included a 23-point, 18-rebound performance against Pepperdine and four 30-point performances.
26
Memphis Grizzlies: Sidy Cissoko
Ignite, G League, 6-7
FROM: France
DRAFT AGE: 19.2
STATS: 13.2 ppg (36.8 3p%, 59.5 2p%), 2.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.3 stl%, 2.6 blk%
Sidy Cissoko is one of the youngest prospects in this draft class, so he should be flying up draft boards after a recent hot streak.
Cissoko has scored at least 20 points in five consecutive games, also adding 5 assists and 4 steals during a recent win for the Ignite over the Iowa Wolves on Feb. 28. His jumper is starting to connect more, too, shooting 5-for-9 from beyond the arc against the Memphis Hustle on Feb. 23.
27
Utah Jazz (via PHI): Marcus Sasser
Houston Cougars, Senior, 6-2
FROM: Dallas, TX
DRAFT AGE: 22.8
STATS: 17.0 ppg (38.2 3p%, 50.0 2p%), 2.8 rpg, 3.3 apg, 3.4 stl%, 0.8 blk%
Houston’s Marcus Sasser finished the regular season on a hot streak, scoring 20 points in six consecutive victories before breaking the streak on March 5. He can create his shot out of the pick-and-roll or shoot efficiently on catch-and-shoot opportunities and is ready to play at the NBA level.
28
Charlotte Hornets (via DEN): Jett Howard
Michigan Wolverines, Freshman, 6-7
FROM: Miami, FL
DRAFT AGE: 19.8
STATS: 14.4 ppg (36.9 3p%, 50.0 2p%), 2.7 rpg, 2.1 apg, 0.8 stl%, 2.3 blk%
Michigan’s Jett Howard is an enticing shooter who can score with the best of them. He dropped 34 points (14-22 FG, 7-13 3P) against Iowa in January, which solidified his case as a one-and-done candidate.
Howard, who is dealing with an ankle injury, has struggled on the defensive end of the floor. This may be why Michigan has generally performed better when he sits relative to when he plays.
29
Indiana Pacers (via BOS): Julian Strawther
Gonzaga Bulldogs, Junior, 6-7
FROM: Las Vegas, NV
DRAFT AGE: 21.2
STATS: 15.4 ppg (42.2 3p%, 53.9 2p%), 6.2 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.4 stl%, 1.3 blk%
Gonzaga’s Julian Strawther is nearly automatic when shooting off the catch. Additionally, Strawther has one of the most accurate and prolific floaters in the NCAA. He may have defensive limitations but it is easy to imagine him getting minutes in the NBA.
30
L.A. Clippers (via MIL): Jaime Jaquez Jr.
UCLA Bruins, Senior, 6-7
FROM: Camarillo, CA
DRAFT AGE: 22.4
STATS: 17.0 ppg (33.3 3p%, 52.6 2p%), 8.0 rpg, 2.5 apg, 2.8 stl%, 2.6 blk%
UCLA’s Jaime Jaquez Jr., who is among the leader in the KenPom Player of the Year standings, feels like one of those guys who will find a way to stick around in the NBA. He has some of the most impressive footwork you will see from a prospect and winning seems to follow him.
31
SECOND ROUND
31. IND (via HOU): Kyle Filipowski (Duke Blue Devils, Freshman, 6-11)
32. DET: Dariq Whitehead (Duke Blue Devils, Freshman, 6-6)
33. SAS: Rayan Rupert (SKYCITY New Zealand Breakers, International, 6-6)
34. CHA: Adem Bona (UCLA Bruins, Freshman, 6-9)
35. ORL: Bilal Coulibaly (Metropolitans 92, International, 6-6)
36 SAC (via IND): Jalen Wilson (Kansas Jayhawks, Junior, 6-8)
37. OKC: James Nnaji (FC Barcelona, International, 6-10)
38. WAS (via CHI): Ricky Council IV (Arkansas Razorbacks, Junior, 6-6)
39. BOS (via POR): Coleman Hawkins (Illinois Fighting Illini, Junior, 6-10)
40. DEN (via WAS): Emoni Bates (Eastern Michigan Eagles, Sophomore, 6-9)
41 LAL: Terrence Shannon Jr (Illinois Fighting Illini, Senior, 6-6)
42. SAS (via TOR): Arthur Kaluma (Creighton Bluejays, Sophomore, 6-7)
43. NOP: Kel’el Ware (Oregon Ducks, Freshman, 7-0)
44. CHA (via UTA): Malcolm Cazalon (Mega Soccerbet, International, 6-6)
45. MEM (via MIN): Azuolas Tubelis (Arizona Wildcats, Junior, 6-11)
46. POR (via ATL): Reece Beekman (Virginia Cavaliers, Junior, 6-2)
47. DEN (via DAL): Kobe Bufkin (Michigan Wolverines, Sophomore, 6-4)
48. LAC: Jaylen Clark (UCLA Bruins, Junior, 6-5)
49. CLE (via GSW): Oscar Tshiebwe (Kentucky Wildcats, Senior, 6-9)
50. BOS (via MIA): Oso Ighodaro (Marquette Golden Eagles, Junior, 6-11)
51. PHX: Tristan Vukcevic (Partizan NiS Beograd, International, 6-10)
52. BKN: Nikola Đurišić (Mega Soccerbet, International, 6-8)
53. MIN (via NYK): Kevin McCullar Jr. (Kansas Jayhawks, Senior, 6-6)
54. SAC: Drew Timme (Gonzaga Bulldogs, Senior, 6-10)
55. IND (via CLE): Trey Alexander (Creighton Bluejays, Sophomore, 6-4)
56. MEM: Jalen Slawson (Furman Paladins, Senior, 6-7)
57. WAS (via BOS): Bryce Hopkins (Providence Friars, Sophomore, 6-6)
58. MIL: Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana Hoosiers, Junior, 6-9)
