From earthquakes to sham elections, the assassination of a president, or the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, Latin American and Caribbean countries faced economic and political setbacks in 2021 that could significantly affect their populations for years to come.
The pandemic hit the region hardest, with Brazil, Mexico and Peru topping the world charts of COVID-related deaths. Brazil alone reported more than 22 million cases, and Cuba, with just under a million, had the highest number of cases in the Caribbean. Many countries in the Caribbean are still lagging in vaccinating the population, as the availability of shots has become a significant hurdle.
Increased poverty and instability have sent thousands of migrants to the U.S. southern border and the trend is unlikely to change next year. The rise of authoritarianism and populist governments in the hemisphere will continue challenging a U.S. administration that regards democracy and the fight against corruption as central pillars of its foreign policy.
Here’s an outlook after some of the most consequential events in the Caribbean region this year:
— Cuba: Widespread shortages of food and medicines, an unpopular currency reform, the mismanagement of the COVID-19 crisis and increased government repression all led to the demonstrations in 2021, in which social media played a central role. More than 1,000 people were detained, and some are still in jail, facing yearslong sentences. The crackdown against protests has further isolated the government and overshadowed some minor economic openings in the private sector. Next year’s economic forecasts are not optimistic, as delayed reforms, skyrocketing inflation and a slow tourism recovery have cut growth projections. In 2022, look for Cuban authorities to again use migration as a pressure release valve, setting up the conditions for a new Cuban exodus to the U.S.
— Puerto Rico: It remains to be seen how the island, which the Federal Reserve Bank of New York says has seen a rise in employment compared with pre-pandemic levels, will fare with the latest COVID-19 surge. Next year also marks the five-year anniversary of Hurricanes Irma and Maria, a time when many will take stock of the progress of the government’s natural disaster recovery and infrastructure rebuilding. Puerto Rico is also expected to resolve its yearslong bankruptcy in 2022, should a debt restructuring plan be approved in federal court. The performance of LUMA Energy, which runs the public power utility’s transmission and distribution lines and pledged to modernize the fragile electric grid, will also be scrutinized by island residents and officials. Local organizations will be watching whether the governor’s emergency declaration over violence against women has reduced the island’s staggering femicide rates.
— Haiti: 2021 was a year of crises, from the shocking middle-of-the-night assassination of the president to a devastating earthquake to a migration crisis along the U.S. southern border and the kidnapping of American and Canadian missionaries east of Port-au-Prince. Next year is expected to be just as challenging as Haitians mark Feb. 7, which, according to the U.S. and others, is the end of President Jovenel Moïse’s five-year-presidential mandate with no elected president, no functioning parliament and pressure to either enter a transition to elections in two years or schedule elections right away. Either way, Haiti continues to face a deteriorating environment of violent gang clashes, kidnapping and economic collapse.
— Dominican Republic: In 2022, economic growth in the age of COVID-19 and its variants will continue to be a priority for the Dominican Republic, which despite the epidemic has kept its borders open to tourists.
— Caribbean Community: In 2022, the 15-member regional bloc known as Caricom will welcome new leadership at its helm, Caribbean nations will continue to fight for access to affordable financing to try to revive their economies, and will demand closer relations with the U.S., as the Biden administration tries to figure out how to impede China’s growing influence. Vaccine inequity will continue to be a problem in the region, where tourism-dependent economies have been decimated by COVID-19.
— Central America: Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador were excluded from President Joe Biden’s Summit for Democracy in December, raising alarms and questions about U.S. foreign policy in the face of a continuing migration crisis at the U.S. southern border. While all three nations have had worrying domestic policies and their leaders have been denounced for fueling corruption and an erosion of democratic values, 2022 will continue to pose challenges in their relations with the U.S., especially with a planned Summit of the Americas. The year will also present opportunities for improved U.S.-Honduras relations following the election of leftist leader Xiomara Castro de Zelaya as Honduras’ next president. Prior to her November win, she spoke of tackling corruption, the root causes of migration and to promote jobs and income in the country.
— Venezuela: Political opponents of ruler Nicolas Maduro continue to lose ground in their efforts to topple the regime amid growing fractures within their coalition. The group had concentrated their hopes on trying to obtain a transition road map at the negotiation table, but the talks have been suspended by the Maduro regime. It is unlikely that a strengthened Maduro, feeling elated after surviving sanctions from the former Trump administration, will be willing to cede power voluntarily anytime soon.
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