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David Dorey

2022 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Running Backs

Schedule strength for running backs considers both rushing and receiving yards as today’s players rarely rely on just running production anymore. The analysis also considers the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, which creates 64 “different defensive matchups” depending on where the game is played.

See also:
2022 fantasy football schedule strength – Quarterbacks
2022 fantasy football schedule strength – Running Backs
2022 fantasy football schedule strength – Receivers

The scoring was a point for every ten yards rushing or receiving, six-point touchdowns, and a point per reception. The average fantasy points allowed to running backs are at the bottom of this page for reference.

Total Points

Below are the total points for each backfield according to their schedule, using the averages allowed in 2021 by those defenses.

BUF DET CHI SEA MIA NE BAL CAR LAC WAS IND
422 412 412 411 411 410 410 409 407 406 406
KC DEN NYJ SF DAL NO JAC CLE TEN ARI
405 403 402 401 401 400 398 397 396 395
CIN PHI LAR GB MIN PIT ATL NYG HOU TB LV
394 393 393 393 392 392 389 388 385 381 381

The differences do not appear dramatic. And the Bills and Lions are primarily passing teams with committee backfields. David Montgomery is nicely situated but will be in a new offense.  The Seahawks, Dolphins, Patriots, and Ravens are the next best, but all also rely on a combination of several running backs.

Weekly Play

Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft by considering the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games against a Top-22 venue from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the Bottom-22. Bye weeks were also considered as “bad”.

Notable schedules

Antonio Gibson / J.D. McKissic (WAS) – The Commanders’ schedule is very advantageous for their running backs. As it works out, they battle three bad matchups by Week 6 but then the only remaining negative is a Week 14 bye. Better yet, six of their final nine weeks contain weaker defenses and Weeks 15 and 17 are at home versus the Giants and Browns. The workload looks to be more distributed this year, and there is the specter of Brian Robinson Jr. cutting into the workload. By midseason, the schedule looks profitable for the backfield.

Ravens Backfield (BAL) – One of the murkier backfields gets a lighter slate of games. Both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards return from injury, Mike Davis was added and Tyler Baddie was drafted. The best part of this schedule is Weeks 1 to 8 which contain five soft matchups and no bad ones. The second half of the season is much less favorable, but at least they end up with home games against the Falcons and Steelers during fantasy playoffs.

D’Andre Swift / Jamaal Williams (DET) –  The Lions face one of the better schedules for running backs with a nice opening to the season with three of five matchups favorable and ending with only one tough venue in the final seven games of the fantasy season. D’Andre Swift already enters 2022 with promise, and his schedule will work with him if he can stay healthy.

Rashaad Penny / Kenneth Walker (SEA) – The respective roles are up for grabs in the Seattle backfield, but an intention to run more and a kind schedule should help. After Week 6, the only negatives are the bye and Week 14 versus the 49ers. Overall, this could let the rookie Kenneth Walker shine if Rashaad Penny continues to have injury issues. Fantasy championships at home versus the Jets sound like a winner.

Devin Singletary / James Cook (BUF) – Another backfield with less clarity after the Bills made James Cook as the third running back taken in the NFL draft. Devin Singletary likely remains the primary back but faces a tough opening with three bad matchups over the initial four games. It clears up the rest of the way with only a bye and Week 16 at the Bears, but otherwise, they enjoy seven favorable matchups between Weeks 5 to 14.

Dalvin Cook (MIN) – The Vikings’ stud running back has already fallen in fantasy drafts this year and that’s likely compounded with a glance at his schedule.  Cook battles a brutal stretch between Weeks 4 and 12, with every matchup in a tough venue other than hosting the Bears in Week 5 as a neutral pairing. It lightens over the final five games but still plays the Colts and at the Packers during fantasy playoffs.

Najee Harris (PIT) – The top rookie rusher last year, Najee Harris was a fantasy goldmine but he’ll have a tougher time repeating with a new quarterback and a schedule that contains just three favorable venues against eight top defenses plus a bye week. Even his fantasy playoffs holds road trips to the Panthers and Ravens.

Josh Jacobs / Kenyan Drake (LV) – There’s a chance that even the rookie Zamir White could also limit what Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake accomplish this year. Jacobs star isn’t as bright, and Drake returns from a broken ankle. Worse yet, after opening at the Chargers, the Raiders don’t have a favorable matchup until Week 12. And when you need them the most, this backfield faces the 49ers, Patriots and Steelers during fantasy playoffs.

2022 weekly grid

Week ARI ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE
1 KC NO @NYJ @LAR CLE SF PIT @CAR
2 @LV @LAR MIA TEN @NYG @GB @DAL NYJ
3 LAR @SEA @NE @MIA NO HOU @NYJ PIT
4 @CAR CLE BUF @BAL ARI @NYG MIA @ATL
5 PHI @TB CIN PIT SF @MIN @BAL LAC
6 @SEA SF @NYG @KC @LAR WAS @NO NE
7 NO @CIN CLE bye TB @NE ATL @BAL
8 @MIN CAR @TB GB @ATL @DAL @CLE CIN
9 SEA LAC @NO @NYJ @CIN MIA CAR bye
10 @LAR @CAR bye MIN ATL DET bye @MIA
11 SF CHI CAR CLE @BAL @ATL @PIT @BUF
12 LAC @WAS @JAC @DET DEN @NYJ @TEN TB
13 bye PIT DEN @NE bye GB KC @HOU
14 NE bye @PIT NYJ @SEA bye CLE @CIN
15 @DEN @NO @CLE MIA PIT PHI @TB BAL
16 TB @BAL ATL @CHI DET BUF @NE NO
17 @ATL ARI PIT @CIN @TB @DET BUF @WAS
18 @SF TB @CIN NE @NO MIN BAL @PIT
DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC
1 TB @SEA PHI @MIN IND @HOU @WAS @ARI
2 CIN HOU WAS CHI @DEN @JAC IND LAC
3 @NYG SF @MIN @TB @CHI KC @LAC @IND
4 WAS @LV SEA NE LAC TEN @PHI @TB
5 @LAR IND @NE NYG @JAC @DEN HOU LV
6 @PHI @LAC bye NYJ bye JAC @IND BUF
7 DET NYJ @DAL @WAS @LV @TEN NYG @SF
8 CHI @JAC MIA @BUF TEN WAS DEN bye
9 bye bye GB @DET PHI @NE LV TEN
10 @GB @TEN @CHI DAL @NYG @LV @KC JAC
11 @MIN LV @NYG TEN WAS PHI bye @LAC
12 NYG @CAR BUF @PHI @MIA PIT BAL LAR
13 IND @BAL JAC @CHI CLE @DAL @DET @CIN
14 HOU KC MIN bye @DAL bye @TEN @DEN
15 @JAC ARI @NYJ LAR KC @MIN DAL @HOU
16 PHI @LAR @CAR @MIA @TEN LAC @NYJ SEA
17 @TEN @KC CHI MIN JAC @NYG @HOU DEN
18 @WAS LAC @GB DET @IND HOU TEN @LV
LAC LAR LV MIA MIN NE NO NYG
1 LV BUF @LAC NE GB @MIA @ATL @TEN
2 @KC ATL ARI @BAL @PHI @PIT TB CAR
3 JAC @ARI @TEN BUF DET BAL @CAR DAL
4 @HOU @SF DEN @CIN @NO @GB MIN CHI
5 @CLE DAL @KC @NYJ CHI DET SEA @GB
6 DEN CAR bye MIN @MIA @CLE CIN BAL
7 SEA bye HOU PIT bye CHI @ARI @JAC
8 bye SF @NO @DET ARI @NYJ LV @SEA
9 @ATL @TB @JAC @CHI @WAS IND BAL bye
10 @SF ARI IND CLE @BUF bye @PIT HOU
11 KC @NO @DEN bye DAL NYJ LAR DET
12 @ARI @KC @SEA HOU NE @MIN @SF @DAL
13 @LV SEA LAC @SF NYJ BUF @TB WAS
14 MIA LV @LAR @LAC @DET @ARI bye PHI
15 TEN @GB NE @BUF IND @LV ATL @WAS
16 @IND DEN @PIT GB NYG CIN @CLE @MIN
17 LAR @LAC SF @NE @GB MIA @PHI IND
18 @DEN @SEA KC NYJ @CHI @BUF CAR @PHI
NYJ PHI PIT SEA SF TB TEN WAS
1 BAL @DET @CIN DEN @CHI @DAL NYG JAC
2 @CLE MIN NE @SF SEA @NO @BUF @DET
3 CIN @WAS @CLE ATL @DEN GB LV PHI
4 @PIT JAC NYJ @DET LAR KC @IND @DAL
5 MIA @ARI @BUF @NO @CAR ATL @WAS TEN
6 @GB DAL TB ARI @ATL @PIT bye @CHI
7 @DEN bye @MIA @LAC KC @CAR IND GB
8 NE PIT @PHI NYG @LAR BAL @HOU @IND
9 BUF @HOU bye @ARI bye LAR @KC MIN
10 bye WAS NO @TB LAC SEA DEN @PHI
11 @NE @IND CIN bye @ARI bye @GB @HOU
12 CHI GB @IND LV NO @CLE CIN ATL
13 @MIN TEN @ATL @LAR MIA NO @PHI @NYG
14 @BUF @NYG BAL CAR TB @SF JAC bye
15 DET @CHI @CAR SF @SEA CIN @LAC NYG
16 JAC @DAL LV @KC WAS @ARI HOU @SF
17 @SEA NO @BAL NYJ @LV CAR DAL CLE
18 @MIA NYG CLE LAR ARI @ATL @JAC DAL

 

Fantasy points allowed per game to running backs

These are the values applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for running backs.

NYJ 36.1 @SF 24.7 @BUF 21.5
DET 31.1 @PHI 24.7 @DEN 21.5
@SEA 30.8 @ATL 24.6 TB 21.3
SEA 30.7 @KC 24.6 NE 21.2
PIT 29.7 HOU 24.6 @NO 20.9
@NYJ 29.6 MIA 24.5 @CHI 20.8
@NYG 27.1 @CIN 24.3 @CLE 20.6
@LVR 26.9 @MIN 24.2 @PIT 20.6
LVR 26.4 @TB 24.1 TEN 20.5
CIN 26.1 KC 23.6 DAL 20.5
@LAC 26.0 @IND 23.5 @DAL 20.3
@NE 25.9 GB 23.4 @CAR 20.3
WAS 25.8 PHI 23.3 @BAL 20.2
@HOU 25.6 CHI 23.0 @MIA 20.2
CLE 25.5 @ARI 22.9 @GB 20.1
ATL 25.3 BAL 22.5 @WAS 20.1
NYG 25.2 DEN 22.2 ARI 19.6
@LAR 25.2 @JAC 22.2 SF 19.3
LAC 25.1 CAR 21.9 LAR 18.9
MIN 25.0 BUF 21.9 IND 18.0
JAC 24.9 @TEN 17.4
@DET 24.9 NO 16.8

 

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