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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
David Dorey

2022 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Quarterbacks

The Huddle created the fantasy football schedule strength by positions back in 1997 and has continuously tweaked and refined it. This provides an early expectation for your fantasy players by applying the averages allowed by defenses last year to current schedules.

The analysis also considers the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, which creates 64  individual “defensive matchups” depending on the game location.

See also:
2022 fantasy football schedule strength – Quarterbacks
2022 fantasy football schedule strength – Running Backs
2022 fantasy football schedule strength – Receivers

The scoring was a point for every 20 passing yards and four -point touchdowns. Rushing is a point for every ten yards and six-point scores. The average passing fantasy points allowed by defenses to quarterbacks are at the bottom of this page for reference.

Total Points

For fantasy contests and some leagues, only total points matter. Below are the total points for each passing offense according to their schedule using the averages allowed in 2021 by those defenses.

PHI WAS BUF CIN JAC IND HOU SF DET CHI LAC
401 400 396 394 391 390 389 388 387 385 384
DEN NYG TB ATL NO SEA GB DAL CAR TEN
383 383 382 382 382 379 378 378 378 377
MIN MIA KC NE BAL LAR CLE ARI LV PIT NYJ
377 375 374 373 370 369 367 365 362 362 356

The Eagles fare the best – nice timing with an upgraded set of receivers. The poor Jets catch no break with the toughest overall schedule fantasy point-wise for quarterbacks. The addition of Davante Adams in Las Vegas comes at an opportune time for David Carr since he and Kyler Murray face a more daunting overall schedule.

Weekly Play

Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft by considering the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22. Bye weeks were also considered as “bad”.

 

Notable schedules

Carson Wentz (WAS) –  He’s been below-average for the last couple of seasons, but Wentz lands in an opportune spot with Terry McLaurin and the rookie Jahan Dotson as starting wideouts and the lightest schedule of any quarterback. He opens the year with nine favorable matchups against just one bad game over the first 12 weeks before ending the season with a less advantageous stretch. For those who like to stream quarterbacks, Wentz should be a consideration.

Josh Allen (BUF) – He’s the consensus No. 1 fantasy quarterback again this year, so he doesn’t need any help. But Allen only faces an opening schedule at the Rams and at the Dolphins in the first three weeks, then the two matchups versus the Patriots are the only bad matchups the rest of the way.

Jalen Hurts (PHI) – When the Eagles acquired A.J. Brown, Hurts fantasy stock already took a bump up. Add that to second-year DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert and Hurts should see better stats opening up with just one bad matchup over his first 13 games while facing nine of the more advantageous defensive venues. His playoff stretch is much less appealing with a string of road games when fantasy leagues are ending.

Trevor Lawrence (JAC) – Last season’s 1.01 draft pick, Lawrence suffered through a nightmarish rookie campaign complete with losing layers of offensive starters and arguably the worst coaching situation in recent history. The receivers were upgraded with Evan Engram and Christian Kirk, and Travis Etienne gets his mulligan from a lost rookie year. Add that to a more fortunate slate of games that opens lightly without a bad matchup until the Broncos in Week 8 and four of the final six weeks versus the weaker secondaries of last year.

Joe Burrow (CIN) – Like Josh Allen, Joe Burrow is already better than any schedule, but he still lands one of the better opening stretches in the league with soft matchups in each of his first seven games. He’ll be more challenged to finish up fantasy playoffs with road venues in Tampa Bay and New England, and then hosting the Bills in Week 17.

Zach Wilson (NYJ) – The Jets have retooled and should see more success on offense in head coach Robert Saleh’s second season. But Zach Wilson will be fighting the worst schedule of any NFL quarterback. Starting in Week 2, he enjoys only one of the lighter defensive matchups while going against the better secondaries in almost every game until, mercifully, facing the visiting Jaguars in Week 16.

Kyler Murray (ARI) – The schedule is a new complication for Kyler Murray. The Cardinals open against the visiting Chiefs and never again face a defensive venue in the Bottom-20 from last year. Neutral games against the Buccaneers and Falcons end the fantasy season, but there’s no advantage to this schedule along the way.

2022 weekly schedule strength by team

ARI ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE
1 KC NO @NYJ @LAR CLE SF PIT @CAR
2 @LV @LAR MIA TEN @NYG @GB @DAL NYJ
3 LAR @SEA @NE @MIA NO HOU @NYJ PIT
4 @CAR CLE BUF @BAL ARI @NYG MIA @ATL
5 PHI @TB CIN PIT SF @MIN @BAL LAC
6 @SEA SF @NYG @KC @LAR WAS @NO NE
7 NO @CIN CLE bye TB @NE ATL @BAL
8 @MIN CAR @TB GB @ATL @DAL @CLE CIN
9 SEA LAC @NO @NYJ @CIN MIA CAR bye
10 @LAR @CAR bye MIN ATL DET bye @MIA
11 SF CHI CAR CLE @BAL @ATL @PIT @BUF
12 LAC @WAS @JAC @DET DEN @NYJ @TEN TB
13 bye PIT DEN @NE bye GB KC @HOU
14 NE bye @PIT NYJ @SEA bye CLE @CIN
15 @DEN @NO @CLE MIA PIT PHI @TB BAL
16 TB @BAL ATL @CHI DET BUF @NE NO
17 @ATL ARI PIT @CIN @TB @DET BUF @WAS
18 @SF TB @CIN NE @NO MIN BAL @PIT
DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC
1 TB @SEA PHI @MIN IND @HOU @WAS @ARI
2 CIN HOU WAS CHI @DEN @JAC IND LAC
3 @NYG SF @MIN @TB @CHI KC @LAC @IND
4 WAS @LV SEA NE LAC TEN @PHI @TB
5 @LAR IND @NE NYG @JAC @DEN HOU LV
6 @PHI @LAC bye NYJ bye JAC @IND BUF
7 DET NYJ @DAL @WAS @LV @TEN NYG @SF
8 CHI @JAC MIA @BUF TEN WAS DEN bye
9 bye bye GB @DET PHI @NE LV TEN
10 @GB @TEN @CHI DAL @NYG @LV @KC JAC
11 @MIN LV @NYG TEN WAS PHI bye @LAC
12 NYG @CAR BUF @PHI @MIA PIT BAL LAR
13 IND @BAL JAC @CHI CLE @DAL @DET @CIN
14 HOU KC MIN bye @DAL bye @TEN @DEN
15 @JAC ARI @NYJ LAR KC @MIN DAL @HOU
16 PHI @LAR @CAR @MIA @TEN LAC @NYJ SEA
17 @TEN @KC CHI MIN JAC @NYG @HOU DEN
18 @WAS LAC @GB DET @IND HOU TEN @LV
LAC LAR LV MIA MIN NE NO NYG
1 LV BUF @LAC NE GB @MIA @ATL @TEN
2 @KC ATL ARI @BAL @PHI @PIT TB CAR
3 JAC @ARI @TEN BUF DET BAL @CAR DAL
4 @HOU @SF DEN @CIN @NO @GB MIN CHI
5 @CLE DAL @KC @NYJ CHI DET SEA @GB
6 DEN CAR bye MIN @MIA @CLE CIN BAL
7 SEA bye HOU PIT bye CHI @ARI @JAC
8 bye SF @NO @DET ARI @NYJ LV @SEA
9 @ATL @TB @JAC @CHI @WAS IND BAL bye
10 @SF ARI IND CLE @BUF bye @PIT HOU
11 KC @NO @DEN bye DAL NYJ LAR DET
12 @ARI @KC @SEA HOU NE @MIN @SF @DAL
13 @LV SEA LAC @SF NYJ BUF @TB WAS
14 MIA LV @LAR @LAC @DET @ARI bye PHI
15 TEN @GB NE @BUF IND @LV ATL @WAS
16 @IND DEN @PIT GB NYG CIN @CLE @MIN
17 LAR @LAC SF @NE @GB MIA @PHI IND
18 @DEN @SEA KC NYJ @CHI @BUF CAR @PHI
NYJ PHI PIT SEA SF TB TEN WAS
1 BAL @DET @CIN DEN @CHI @DAL NYG JAC
2 @CLE MIN NE @SF SEA @NO @BUF @DET
3 CIN @WAS @CLE ATL @DEN GB LV PHI
4 @PIT JAC NYJ @DET LAR KC @IND @DAL
5 MIA @ARI @BUF @NO @CAR ATL @WAS TEN
6 @GB DAL TB ARI @ATL @PIT bye @CHI
7 @DEN bye @MIA @LAC KC @CAR IND GB
8 NE PIT @PHI NYG @LAR BAL @HOU @IND
9 BUF @HOU bye @ARI bye LAR @KC MIN
10 bye WAS NO @TB LAC SEA DEN @PHI
11 @NE @IND CIN bye @ARI bye @GB @HOU
12 CHI GB @IND LV NO @CLE CIN ATL
13 @MIN TEN @ATL @LAR MIA NO @PHI @NYG
14 @BUF @NYG BAL CAR TB @SF JAC bye
15 DET @CHI @CAR SF @SEA CIN @LAC NYG
16 JAC @DAL LV @KC WAS @ARI HOU @SF
17 @SEA NO @BAL NYJ @LV CAR DAL CLE
18 @MIA NYG CLE LAR ARI @ATL @JAC DAL

Fantasy points per venue allowed to quarterbacks

These are the values applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for quarterbacks.

KC 29.7 @TB 23.6 @DEN 21.5
WAS 29.6 @CIN 23.6 @SEA 21.5
@PHI 27.4 @IND 23.5 DET 21.4
ATL 26.1 SF 23.3 @NE 21.4
@DAL 26.1 TB 23.1 @CAR 21.3
MIN 26.1 CHI 23.1 DAL 21.2
CLE 25.9 @ARI 23.0 @PIT 20.8
MIA 25.6 @LVR 23.0 LVR 20.8
GB 25.1 @ATL 22.8 CIN 20.5
BAL 25.0 HOU 22.8 @SF 20.3
JAC 24.9 @LAC 22.4 @JAC 20.2
@WAS 24.8 @CHI 22.4 @LAR 20.0
TEN 24.8 LAR 22.3 CAR 19.8
@DET 24.7 @GB 22.3 NO 19.5
@BAL 24.6 ARI 22.2 DEN 19.1
@NO 24.4 @MIN 22.1 BUF 18.6
NYJ 24.3 @TEN 22.1 @NYG 18.6
NYG 24.2 @KC 21.9 @MIA 18.5
IND 24.2 SEA 21.9 @CLE 18.2
@NYJ 24.1 LAC 21.8 PHI 17.8
PIT 24.0 NE 15.2
@HOU 23.9 @BUF 15.1

 

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