Bettors have the opportunity to lay some money on the Atlanta Braves in the World Series for the first time this millennium. Unfortunately for them, their action pales in comparison to the Houston Astros on their home turf.
The Braves are +1.5 run underdogs in Game 1, but have only garnered 25 percent of the pregame action in the run up to the series opener, per Tipico Sportsbook. Perhaps that’s because taking Atlanta and the spread will only net you a -180 payout. Betting Houston to win by two runs or more will get you a +145 return.
Those same gamblers are putting their trust in the batters’ box Tuesday night, A 71 percent majority of bets lean toward the over at 8.5 runs (-102). If recent returns hold true, that bet could dissolve into the night air in Texas.
The Braves have only allowed 3.3 runs per game in former Astro Charlie Morton’s three postseason games so far. Houston counters with Framber Valdez, a trusted piece of the rotation the past two seasons and a player who was most recently seen holding the Boston Red Sox to three earned runs across two ALCS starts. The Astros have given up just three runs per game in his postseason appearances.
Those numbers suggest a pitchers’ duel at Minute Maid Park, but there’s still value to be found in Tuesday night’s batters. Yordan Alvarez had at least one hit in each game of the six game series win over the Red Sox, but will still pay out +175 if he can keep that streak going against Atlanta. Dansby Swanson is in the midst of a five-game hitting streak and has hits in eight of his 10 postseason games this autumn, but returns +250 value if he can poke a single into the outfield in Game 1.
Is the public overvaluing a 95-win Astros team at home? Is the minority foolishly backing Atlanta because it faces the biggest villains in baseball? Or are Morton and the Braves destined to come through in their first World Series appearance of the 2000s? We’ll know more tonight.
