The biggest question during this draft season will be how teams judge the top prospects who chose to opt out due to COVID-19.
I currently have six of those players in my top 20.
Will they be docked because the most recent tape a scout can watch comes from 2019?
If two players are considered similar, does tie go to the player who played this season? Or will teams favor those who are fresher with less wear and tear on their bodies?
In the past, we'd get most of these answers at the NFL combine in Indianapolis, but it remains to be seen if we'll even have a combine during this process.
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THE PREAMBLE
The NFL draft has become a nice appetizer before our main course in September. A mock version of said draft is meant to educate, and even entertain. At very least, it helps you pass the time.
This is an early attempt at identifying the best players available in this season's draft class, and which teams they match up well with considering the updated draft order (according to NFL.com).
The closer we get to draft day, the more I attempt to match what teams will actually do with their draft picks as opposed to what I believe they should do.
Last season, I was the fourth most accurate (out of 109) NFL draft prognosticator according to The Huddle Report (most accurate in print). I'm seventh over the past five years.
Follow me on Twitter @UTEddieBrown so we can continue the conversation.
Here's my updated 2021 NFL mock draft:
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FIRST ROUND
1. N.Y. Jets (0-13) — Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson, Jr.
How good is Lawrence? Vegas opened the Tigers at 7.5 point favorites in the rematch with Notre Dame in the ACC Championship this weekend. The Irish won the first matchup 47-40 in double overtime with the star quarterback sidelined due to COVID. The betting market believed that wasn't enough and the line has since moved to 10.5. This would be the first time the Jets selected a quarterback No. 1 overall since 1965. Some guy named Joe Namath. Top needs: QB, Edge, DB
2. Jacksonville (1-12) — Justin Fields, QB, Ohio St., Jr.
Fields was recently named a semifinalist for both the Maxwell Award (best player in college football) and the Davey O'Brien Award (nation's top quarterback). Could Urban Meyer be his new coach in the pros? Meyer resigned at Ohio State before Fields transferred from Georgia. I'm sure Buckeyes fans have imagined what the pair would have been like together in Columbus. Top needs: QB, OT, CB
3. Cincinnati (2-10-1) — Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon, Jr.
Owner/GM Mike Brown better write on the chalkboard repeatedly like Bart Simpson, "We must protect Joe Burrow!" after his offensive line has allowed 46 sacks so far this season — the second-most in the NFL. Burrow could miss a few early games in 2021 after suffering an ACL and MCL tear against Washington. Drafting the 2019 Outland Trophy winner — he opted out of this season due to the threat of COVID-19 — would be a start. Sewell didn't allow a pressure, hurry or hit in nine of 14 games as a sophomore. Top needs: OT, CB, Edge
4. L.A. Chargers (4-9) — Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami, So.
Preference 1A would be Sewell, but odds are against them to finish with a worse record then the Bengals. Preference 1B is a dynamic defensive player and there really isn't a consensus on who the top option is at this point. A trade with a quarterback-needy team should be on the table for those who already have their guy, but I give them a talented pass rusher who is only scratching the surface of his immense potential. It's been almost two decades since a Hurricane defensive end was taken in the first round (Jerome McDougle in 2003). Rousseau finished with 15.5 sacks in 13 games as a redshirt freshman, but opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns. Melvin Ingram is in the final year of his contract and I doubt he returns. Top needs: OL, TE, Edge
5. Atlanta (4-9) — Mac Jones, QB, Alabama, Jr.
I imagine the new General Manager will want to target Matt Ryan's heir apparent if the Falcons end up drafting this high. Jones benefits from a great supporting cast in Tuscaloosa, but he's an accurate, decisive passer who has a QBR of 96.0 (first in the nation) and will likely win the Heisman Trophy. Top needs: Edge, S, RB
6. Carolina (4-9) — Zach Wilson, QB, BYU, Jr.
Teddy Bridgewater is a solid option to be a bridge quarterback, but to whom? Imagine Wilson in the system that made Joe Burrow a star. The competition level hasn't been the strongest, but his performance has been impressive — he's passed for 3,267 yards (fifth in the nation) and 30 touchdowns (tied for second in the nation) against only three interceptions. The Davey O'Brien semifinalist's arm talent and improvisation skills are equally impressive. Top needs: OT, LB, CB
7. Dallas (4-9) — Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan, Sr.
A once up-and-coming defense has been horrifically bad this season — dead last in points allowed. Paye is an upside pick who hadn't produced at an elite level before (he only had 9.5 sacks in his first three seasons in Ann Arbor), but there's athletic indicators he will continue to improve as a pass rusher. According to Pro Football Focus, Paye has a 27 percent pass-rush win rate — tops in the Big Ten and significantly better than the next-best player — which is typically defined as how often a player beats his blocker within 2.5 seconds. He's already an impressive run defender against the spread offense, which is becoming increasingly important in the NFL. Top needs: Edge, DB, OL
8. Miami from Houston (4-9) — Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU, Jr.
The Dolphins are desperate for wide receivers who can get open. The 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner is another potential top-10 selection who opted out this season because of COVID. Top needs: WR, OL, LB
9. Philadelphia (4-8-1) — Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama, Jr.
Former All-Pro Darius Slay has been inconsistent at best during his first season in Philly and Nickell Robey-Coleman is headed for free agency. Surtain, a former five-star recruit, has NFL DNA (father was an All-Pro corner who played 11 seasons) and prototypical traits. He was recently named a semifinalist for the Chuck Bednarik, Bronko Nagurski and Jim Thorpe awards. Top needs: OL, DB, LB
10. N.Y. Giants (5-8) — Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech, Sr.
If you draft a franchise quarterback, you better be able to protect him — just ask the Bengals. Darrisaw could find his way into the top 15 if he tests as well as I believe he will during the draft process (assuming we are able to have a combine or pro days). Top needs: OT, Edge, LB
11. Detroit (5-8) — Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama, Jr.
Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola are all unrestricted free agents. I don't suspect Waddle's broken ankle will impact his draft stock much (a recent report has him potentially returning for the College Football Playoffs). He was off to an incredible start — 25 receptions, 557 yards and four touchdowns in four games — after showing promise as a sophomore. Top needs: WR, LB, DT
12. San Francisco (5-8) — Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina, Jr.
Yes, the NFC champs have dealt with an obscene amount of injuries this season (and the adversity of having to play some of their home games in a different state because of COVID), but they also failed to address two glaring needs this past offseason: the interior offensive line and cornerback. The 49ers currently don't have a corner under contract after this season. Adding Horn — his father Joe was a Pro Bowl wide receiver — would give Richard Sherman someone to mentor if he returns (it seems unlikely at this point) or secure the future Hall of Famer's replacement. He's a very talented press corner with elite speed, good size (6-foot-1, 205 pounds) and can make plays in run support. And there's clearly a pipeline between the Bay Area and South Carolina (See: Deebo Samuel and Javon Kinlaw). Top needs: OL, DB, Edge
13. Denver (5-8) — Micah Parsons, LB, Penn St., Jr.
Vic Fangio's best defenses have historically featured the inside linebacker. Parsons is another elite prospect who opted out of the 2020 season, citing "the potential risk to the health and well-being" of his young son. Top needs: OT, DB, Edge
14. Minnesota (6-7) — Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio St., Jr.
Rookie Ezra Cleveland has thrived at right guard (a position he was forced into due to injuries) and drafting Davis would free Cleveland up to return to tackle. Davis is a system-proof, plug-and-play starter at the next level and a potential All-Pro. Top needs: DL, FS, OL
15. Chicago (6-7) — Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota St., So.
The old saying goes if you have two quarterbacks, you really have no quarterback. A showcase game against Central Arkansas didn't really do Lance's draft stock any favors, but there's too much arm talent and playmaking ability to deny here. Top needs: QB, WR, OL
16. New England (6-7) — Kyle Trask, QB, Florida, Sr.
Cam Newton only has five touchdown passes against 10 interceptions. Trask has legit pocket presence and a surprising touch for such a strong arm. He has 40 touchdown passes (first in the nation) against only five interceptions, 3,717 passing yards (first in the nation) and a QBR of 90.3 (fourth in the nation). Top needs: QB, WR, LB
17. Las Vegas (7-6) — Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame, Sr.
For as much draft capital as the Raiders have spent recently on their defense, you'd expect better results by now. There have been flashes, but nothing concrete yet. They actually attempted to upgrade their linebacker corps through free agency last offseason, but to no avail. Owusu-Koramoah is an explosive athlete who can make plays from sideline-to-sideline. He was recently named a finalist for the Butkus Award (nation's top linebacker) and a semifinalist for the Bednarik Award (defensive player of the year). Top needs: DL, OG, DB
18. Baltimore (8-5) — Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern, Sr.
Matt Skura is an unrestricted free agent, but Slater would be an upgrade regardless. Slater handled Chase Young as a junior while playing left tackle and didn't allow a single sack the entire season. He's versatile and talented enough to play all five offensive line positions. He opted out of this season due to COVID. Top needs: Edge, OL, S
19. Washington (6-7) — DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama, Sr.
All the potential first-round quarterbacks have been selected. Smith would pair nicely with Terry McLaurin. He actually had a better statistical season than 2020 first-round picks Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy last year, leading the Crimson Tide with 1,256 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. He has taken his game to another level since Waddle was sidelined — he has 771 yards on 38 receptions and 11 touchdowns his last five games and has forced his way into the Heisman conversation. Top needs: OL, WR, QB
20. Arizona (7-6) — Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech, Jr.
Patrick Peterson, Dre Kirkpatrick and Johnathan Joseph will all be free agents after this season. Farley is a physical press corner with elite athleticism and size (6-foot-2, 197 pounds) who also opted out due to COVID. Top needs: CB, OL, Edge
21. Miami (8-5) — Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa, Jr.
The Dolphins are only a few players away from fielding a potentially elite defense. Collins has the size (6-4, 260), athleticism and positional flexibility that will cause most defensive coordinators to drool. In seven games, he has four sacks, four interceptions (two pick-sixes), two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. He was also chosen the first unanimous American Athletic Conference defensive player of the year. Top needs: WR, OL, LB
22. Tampa Bay (8-5) — Rashad Weaver, DL, Pittsburgh, Sr.
Ndamukong Suh, Rakeem Nunez-Roches and Steve McLendon will all be free agents. Weaver has harassed quarterbacks all season long while producing 7.5 sacks (tied for 14th in the nation) with three forced fumbles (tied for fifth in the nation). He's expected to sit for the remainder of the season and has signed with an agent to shift his focus to NFL draft preparation. Top needs: Edge, WR, DT
23. N.Y. Jets from Seattle (9-4) — Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson, Sr.
Landing the top quarterback and running back in the 2021 draft would go a long ways in rebuilding a floundering offense. I was shocked when Etienne decided to return for his senior season. He was recently named a semifinalist for the Doak Walker Award (best running back) for the third straight season. Top needs: QB, Edge, DB
24. Indianapolis (9-4) — Carlos Basham Jr., Edge, Wake Forest, Sr.
Justin Houston, Al-Quadin Muhammad and Denico Autry are due to become free agents. Basham is a strong, athletic, productive pass rusher who can disrupt an offense. He had 11 sacks and 18 tackles for loss as a first-team All-ACC selection in 2019 and opened 2020 with a sack in each of his first five games. Top needs: QB, Edge, CB
25. Cleveland (9-4) — Joseph Ossai, Edge, Texas, Jr.
The Browns need to upgrade their pass rush outside of Myles Garrett, but they also need to improve their linebacker corps. Ossai is the best of both worlds. He's a relentless pass rusher, but is also capable of being impactful against the run and in pass coverage. Top needs: Edge, LB, S
26. Tennessee (9-4) — Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida, Jr.
Jonnu Smith's breakout season came just in time. He should find a healthy market during free agency. Pitts is definitely more receiver than complete tight end, but he's a matchup nightmare either way — his 17.8 yards per reception and 11 touchdowns in only seven games are indicative of that. He was recently named a semifinalist for the Biletnikoff Award (nation's best receiver), the Mackey Award (nation's top tight end) and the Maxwell Award. Top needs: OT, WR, Edge
27. Jacksonville from L.A. Rams (9-4) — Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama, Sr.
Cam Robinson is a free agent and Leatherwood is likely an upgrade anyways. The former five-star recruit has shown he can be equally dominant at right guard or left tackle and was recently named a semifinalist for the Outland Trophy (best interior lineman). Top needs: QB, OT, CB
28. Green Bay (10-3) — Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri, Jr.
The Packers run defense has not improved by much and remains a significant weakness — they're tied for 22nd in the NFL allowing 4.6 yards per carry. A converted safety, Bolton is a thumper in the middle who is equally adept in coverage and was just named a finalist for the Butkus Award. Top needs: OL, LB, CB
29. New Orleans (10-3) — Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota, Jr.
The verdict is still out on if Drew Brees' successor is currently on the roster with Taysom Hill showing his upside against Atlanta, but regressing against Denver and losing to Philadelphia. But there aren't any quarterbacks available worth taking here. Bateman is a big receiver (6-2, 210) with excellent hands who was eighth in the country with 20.3 yards per catch in 2019. The Gophers haven't had a first-round pick since 2006 when running back Laurence Maroney went No. 21 overall to New England. Top needs: QB, DL, CB
30. Buffalo (10-3) — Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia, Jr.
Finding a viable option across from All-Pro cornerback Tre'Davious White will be a priority in the offseason. Stokes is built thin, but remains an impressive athlete who maintains his physicality and is currently playing better than anyone at the position in the entire nation. Top needs: CB, OT, LB
31. Pittsburgh (11-2) — Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame, Sr.
The Steelers could lose multiple starters on the offensive line in free agency. Eichenberg has been a dominant force at left tackle for the nation's best offensive line against some of the best pass rushers the country has to offer (Pitt's Patrick Jones II, Duke's Chris Rumph and the barrage Clemson throws at you). He has only allowed one hit on the quarterback this season, according to Pro Football Focus. He hasn't allowed a sack since September of 2018 — 31 straight games. Top needs: OT, Edge, QB
32. Kansas City (12-1) — Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC, Jr.
Both Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson will be free agents after this season. St. Brown is probably better suited for the slot, but he has the size, speed and athleticism to impact the game in a variety of ways. Top needs: WR, OL, Edge
