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USA Today Sports Media Group

Sport

Pete Fiutak

2021 NFL Draft: Justin Fields Will Be Fine, and 3 Other Massive Draft Day Predictions

2021 NFL Draft: It’s going to be all about the quarterbacks in the first round. Here are four big draft day predictions and how the passers will dominate Round 1

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews | @PeteFiutak

It’s finally here.

It’s the 2021 NFL Draft, and we do love it so – and even more this year with all the big things happening at the most important position in all of sports. Here are your four big draft day predictions, and it’s all about the quarterbacks.

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2021 NFL Draft Wacky Call No. 4: The quarterback panic is real, and it’ll cause some teams to lose their minds

Last year at this time we knew Trevor Lawrence would be the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and we knew Justin Fields would be close, and Trey Lance would be in the early mix somewhere.

We didn’t know Zach Wilson would be the No. 2 pick and that a team would sell out to move up to the three to take – most likely – Mac Jones.

But that’s every year. Whether it’s Daniel Jones, or Mitchell Trubisky, or even Joe Burrow, there are always going to be quarterbacks who rise up and become first round must-haves.

Next year, though, is looking very, very thin.

There isn’t a Trevor Lawrence in the 2022 draft. In fact, as we project out way too soon, North Carolina’s Sam Howell, Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler and Texas Tech’s Tyler Shough are all fine, but … meh.

DJ Uiagalelei to be eligible for the 2023 NFL Draft. That’s the guy, but not yet.

So get ready for the panic.

Teams – especially ones with old quarterbacks – are going to look ahead and assume that there isn’t the sure-thing franchise guy out there. The 2021 draft will go QB-QB-QB with Lawrence, Wilson and Jones going as expected, someone will take Lance a wee bit early, and then all hell will break loose as teams look to move up and grab Fields. OR, Fields goes somewhere in the top seven and someone makes a run at Lance.

No matter what, the run on quarterbacks is going to be massive with teams wanting the cheap contract instead of looking ahead to the hamstrung free agent idea.

As you’re reading this, some team is trying to figure out just how much it’s willing to give up to get a guy to get the fan base excited.

Wacky 2021 NFL Draft prediction that just might be right: There will be a whole lot of jockeying for position for six, not five, quarterbacks in the first round. More on that in a moment.

And that begs the question …

NEXT: What’s the 2021 NFL Draft version of Jordan Love-to-Green Bay going to be?

2021 NFL Draft Wacky Call No. 3: What’s the 2021 NFL Draft Jordan Love-to-Green Bay pick going to be?

Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers with the 24th pick in the first round of the 2005 NFL Draft because he was a ridiculous value get, and grooming him behind Brett Favre – who never, ever missed a game – seemed like a good idea and good drafting. That worked out okay.

So it was hard to blame the Packers last year when they looked for lightning to strike again by taking Utah State QB Jordan Love with the 26th overall pick. Rodgers won the MVP, but he also turned 37. Now there’s rumbling that taking Mr. Love might have been a mistake, but there was that chatter about Rodgers early on, too.

It’s about to happen again, but not at Green Bay. Some other team that has legitimate Super Bowl aspirations – and could use another piece of the puzzle – will take a quarterback when it doesn’t really need to.

Ryan Tannehill will turn 33 this year. Tennessee might think about a quarterback to work with at the 22.

Pittsburgh definitely needs to address its quarterback situation and has the 24th pick, New Orleans could take a flier at the 28, and Tampa Bay could get greedy and go with one at the 32 to sit on a for a few years before TB12 decides to go live the life of being TB12.

Las Vegas has a decent quarterback in Derek Carr, but now that the franchise is full-force in Las Vegas, it could use a new look at the 17.

Minnesota has a crippling cap hit coming with Kirk Cousins, and it needs an offensive tackle at the 14, but a quarterback there would energize the base – at least the part that doesn’t want better blocking.

And then there are the New York Giants. They went weird with the Daniel Jones call at the 6 in the 2019 NFL Draft, but his main claim to fame is that Washington face-planted harder taking Dwayne Haskins at the 15.

Okay, so Jones isn’t that bad …

Wacky 2021 NFL Draft prediction that just might be right: It’ll be Chicago or Washington that makes the big move for a quarterback.

If everyone stays put, the call is that Chicago puts together a package to move up from the 20 to get one of the sliding quarterbacks among the big five. There’s too much smoke coming from a few low Chicago media people in high places to ignore the possibility.

Andy Dalton as the Chicago starting quarterback and Nomadland – what are two things no one really wants to watch for $400.

However, Washington taking a quarterback at the 19 is the more likely pick.

The Football Team isn’t going to dive into the future with Ryan Fitzpatrick – and once again, Fitzpatrick will say he’s disappointed when the team goes with the more promising and talented rookie.

And that starting quarterback will be… ? That’s the No. 1 prediction here, but first …

NEXT: Justin Fields will be just fine

2021 NFL Draft Wacky Call No. 2: Justin Fields won’t drop too far

It’s the No. 1 2021 NFL Draft question I’ve been asked over the last two months.

Why don’t people like Justin Fields?

He seemed like a mortal lock to be the No. 2 pick last year at this time, and now he’s dropping like a rock in various mocks – DO NOT READ ANYTHING INTO MOCKS, though – with the idea thrown out there that he might even fall out of the first round.

Whatever. He’s fine. He might drop a bit, but it won’t matter and it might even be the motivational positive it seems to have been for Aaron Rodgers.

So what’s everyone’s problem?

1. I honestly think scouts got freaked out by the Indiana game. That gets brought up way too much, with the focus more on the three bad picks and strange all-around performance than the 300-yard passing day with two touchdowns along with 78 rushing yards and a score … and the win.

2. College guy talking here – I think he’s being misscouted – if I can make up a word. What some see as a problem reading coverages I saw as a guy who always tried to make a big play because he could, and because it worked.

No, he’s not tight enough with his reads, but that’s because he worked behind a phenomenal line and had Ohio State receivers to throw to against a whole slew of mediocre Big Ten secondaries. Things didn’t go too poorly against Clemson in this year’s College Football Playoff.

He played too much hero ball, partly because the big play would develop down the field if he could buy himself a wee bit more time, and … boom.

The guy averaged over nine yards per throw and hit 70% of his throws last season partly because he could wait for his primary guy to get open. The negatives can be tweaked. And then there’s …

3. The Dwayne Haskins factor. It’s unfair, it’s not right, and no NFL type is willing to admit it – because it’s Bad Scouting 101 – but Fields is being lumped into the Buckeye quarterback bucket.

Terrelle Pryor and Braxton Miller were turned into receivers. Troy Smith – despite being No. 1 in an early 2007 mock draft – didn’t have the NFL tools, and the Haskins fiasco scared the bloody hell out of everyone.

But that has nothing to do with Fields as a potential NFL player.

Wacky 2021 NFL Draft prediction that just might be right: Fields will be the fifth of the big five quarterbacks taken, but he’ll go in the top 15 and he’ll be a terrific pro.

If it’s not Denver at the nine it could be Minnesota at the 14 or New England at the 15 – or someone will trade up to get him.

Yeah, his slide will be a story, but he’ll also be a phenomenal value considering the pressure will be on the four guys taken ahead of him.

Now, if I was REALLY throwing something against the wall – which I was all set to do a few days ago, but wussed out over the last 24 hours …

NEXT: Davis Mills will go in the first round, and …

2021 NFL Draft Wacky Call No. 1: Davis Mills will go in the first round, and …

I can’t do it.

I so want to put it out there and make the call that Mills will be drafted ahead of Justin Fields, but I that’s too much of a stretch.

You can’t make a draft pick happen, you can only predict it.

There are way too many concerns about Mills – never healthy, almost no experience, needs a ton of reps before he’s polished, will take at least a year of lumps to see things faster – but it’s all there.

As we speak, some scout is filibustering his general manager with the 16ish to 25ish pick that this is the steal of the draft. This is the one who, with time and seasoning, can be the special player who makes everyone else second guess their life choices.

All arm, perfect size, athletic, Stanford smart – he’s Andrew Luck lite.

Fine, so that’s a gigantic stretch, but if you’re taking Mills in the first round and he’s the sixth quarterback off the board, that’s an interesting combination of being a big-time call along with no big whoop pressure.

If it doesn’t work, you took a shot for the stars with a relatively decent flier after all the other top quarterbacks went. And when you take him, all five general managers who took Trevor, Zach, Mac, Trey and Justin, respectively, will take a moment and think, “yeah … maybe.”

Wacky 2021 NFL Draft prediction that just might be right: Chicago wants him at the 20, but Washington will take him at the 19, and they both might have to trade up past New England at the 15 to get him.

Okay, okay, okay, I get it. This never quite works like it’s supposed to, and I’m more than willing to eat it if Mills is this year’s Mason Rudolph.

I honestly thought Jacob Eason might slide into the first round last year, and he didn’t go until the fourth round to Indianapolis. I thought the same with Rudolph in 2018, and he went in the third.

I once had a scout swear to me that Ryan Nassib was the best quarterback in the 2013 NFL Draft – and, technically, he wasn’t terribly far off – and could go in the first round, but the Syracuse passer went in the fourth.

It all ties together.

Teams are going to freak out over quarterbacks, someone you don’t think will take a QB will take a QB, and Fields won’t fall as far as many might think.

The drop-off from Mills the Kyle Trask and Jamie Newman is enormous, and someone in the top 20 will make the call.

Davis Mills, no matter what.

Happy 2021 NFL Draft weekend, everyone.

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