Who will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft? The odds are out from BetMGM, and here’s our ranking from best values to worst.
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We already know who the No. 1 overall pick is going to be in the 2021 NFL Draft, right? Sure we do … just like we knew last year at this time that fifth-round prospect Joe Burrow was going to turn into the must-have top pick overall.
Just like we knew that a quarterback smaller than your sister would end up being the top overall selection in 2019. And before Kyler Murray went to Arizona, it’s not like anyone had any idea that Baker Mayfield would somehow by the top overall pick for Cleveland in 2018.
This is hardly the slam dunk you might think it is.
BetMGM is out with its initial lines for the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Here’s our ranking from the worst value on up to the best of the bunch.
One quick note before we start. The Field isn’t an option. If it was, that would be the No. 1 choice here. And why? Again, Burrow, Murray, and Mayfield.
Here are all of the 30 prospects listed with the lines to be the top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
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30. WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
The hype will be huge coming off a fantastic 2019, but just getting close to the first round in a deep class of of wide receivers would be strong enough. BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
29. WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State
Wallace will be in for a huge season if he stays healthy. However, it’ll be a long shot to be the No. 1 receiver taken, much less the top overall draft pick. BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
28. CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State
He’s going to be among the next great Ohio State defensive backs, but great Ohio State defensive backs don’t go No. 1 overall.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +6600
27. QB Brock Purdy, Iowa State
He is a quarterback, and he is going to throw for a ton of yards, but this isn’t the class to be just a quarterback who’s going to throw for a ton of yards. BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
26. LB Micah Parsons, Penn State
I like his NFL game a lot more than most, but it would require something unreal for him to get into shouting distance of the top pick. At +2000, it’s not worth it as a flier.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +2000
25. RB Kylin Hill, Mississippi State
Not only is a running back for an okay team in the SEC West not going to get the yards, he’s really not going to get the yards in the Mike Leach offense. The position it too devalued. It is +20,000, but … nah.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +20,000
24. WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
It’s hard enough for a wide receiver to be a top pick, much less one who’ll have to share the wealth with so many other talented stars on his own team. Waddle is special, but notice how many other Alabama guys are on this list.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +5000
23. OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan
A rising star prospect who should work his way into the first round, there’s going to be too much traffic at the position – forgetting about the quarterback talents – to earn the top pick.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
22. WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU
His game will be more than fantastic for the NFL, but he’s not exactly the prototype wideout. We’re talking about the No. 1 overall pick in a draft with phenomenal quarterback prospects – +5000 isn’t enough to get interested. BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +5000
21. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC
The next-level talent is there for an offense that’s going to put up insane passing numbers, But he’s still a wide receiver.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
20. WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama
The +5000 value isn’t enough to bite. A wide receiver isn’t going first, but Smith might play his way into a top 15 pick.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +5000
19. WR Justyn Ross, Clemson
As outstanding as he is, and as good as the +10,000 might look, he doesn’t have No. 1 overall pick talent. He’ll likely go around the 20.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
18. WR Rondale Moore, Purdue
The blazing speed and all-around playmaking ability could make him the first receiver off the board – think Henry Ruggs – but even at +10,000, don’t worry about him at the top spot.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
17. CB Patrick Surtain, Alabama
All the NFL tools are there, but if Jeff Okudah couldn’t get higher than the No. 3 pick … it’s not going to happen for a corner in this draft.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +5000
16. RB Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State
Get ready for a theme here. There’s just no value at running back anymore. Even if there is – and Hubbard should be a great pro – it’s asking for way too much to make Hubbard No. 1 overall.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +8000
15. RB Travis Etienne, Clemson
+4000 isn’t enough to get excited about him as the No. 1 overall guy. He’ll have a fantastic season, and the speed is serious, but it’s a position problem – ask D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor about the value of being a great running back.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +4000
NEXT: 2021 NFL Draft: First Pick Overall Odds, Best Bet Value Top 15 Ranking
2021 NFL Draft: First Pick Overall Odds, Best Bet Value Top 15 Ranking
14. RB Najee Harris, Alabama
At +8000 he’s getting a better value than some of the other running backs, and he’s got the bulk to potentially be the first one off the board, but this isn’t the gong to be the draft to be a top back.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +8000
13. OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama
You’d like the value to be a bit higher than +4000, but throw Leatherwood into the mix of top offensive tackles with the belief that someone might want to beef up the O line with the top spot.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +4000
12. OT Sam Cosmi, Texas
At +8000, it’s not an insane shot for the stars. Okay, it is – he’s not a lock to be a first rounder – however, offensive tackles are going to be at a premium in the 2021 NFL Draft. You’re only thinking about this for the value.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +8000
11. QB D’Eriq King, Miami
There’s just no value at +1400. Way, way too many things would have to happen for King to have the massive season needed to be the No. 1 overall pick, and that would include something going wrong with Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +1400
10. QB Sam Ehlinger, Texas
Here’s the thing – if the season goes off as planned, and Ehlinger goes off at LSU and against Oklahoma, he might just push his way into the discussion. He’s more like a late Day Two quarterback pick at best, but he is a big-time starter on a big-name team for +8000.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +8000
9. QB Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
He’s a veteran starting quarterback at a program that’s way, way, way overdue to bust out and be in the mix for something important. At +10,000, it’s just enough of a moon shot to at least give it a thought.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
8. QB Kyle Trask, Florida
It’s not going to happen. There will not be another Joe Burrow story where a guy goes from the just-a-guy pile into all-time greatness, but … Trask sort of fits. He’s a veteran quarterback who should be in for a massive season. Florida won’t pull off a 2019 LSU, but at +10,000, going with a quarterback with NFL skills on a top team isn’t all that crazy.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
7. DE Gregory Rousseau, Miami
It’s been a while – Myles Garrett in 2017 – since a superstar pass rusher went No. 1 overall. Chase Young was the best player in this year’s draft, but it’s a quarterback world now. Rousseau is a bit tall and rangy for the top spot, but he’ll likely be the top pass rusher coming out.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +4000
6. QB Jamie Newman, Georgia
He’d be a whole lot higher than this if the value was any stronger than +4000. If he can be the one to lead Georgia to the national title – or close to it – the scouts are going to fall in love with his game. He’s got the size and the arm to look the part.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +4000
5. QB KJ Costello, Mississippi State
Just be warned – I’m not thinking clearly on this. I’ve spent all offseason so far stumping for Costello to be this year’s college football big thing, and he isn’t even a part of the program yet. If he can stay healthy, he’ll put up astronomical numbers in the Mike Leach offense. NFL tools-wise, he’s right there with any quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
4. OT Walker Little, Stanford
If it’s not one of the star quarterbacks going up top – maybe the team with the top overall pick needs a big-time left tackle – Little has the talent and upside to be the guy. His injury history might keep that from happening, but … +10,000.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +10,000
3. QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
At -250 there’s no real value. He’s the best player and prospect for the 2021 NFL Draft … for now. However, Tua Tagovailoa was the No. 1 prospect for the 2020 draft last year at this time. There’s a shot – and it might be more real than you think – that he pulls a Peyton Manning and sticks around for his senior year. Don’t strain yourself, though. If everything goes according to plan, he’s the No. 1 pick in the draft without a whole lot of questioning.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: -250
2. OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
There’s a great chance that a team with a franchise quarterback in place gets the No. 1 overall pick. If that’s the case, it’ll probably trade out of the spot to someone who’ll want one of the top quarterbacks, but there’s a terrific chance that – say, Miami – would love to have a franchise star at tackle protecting the star.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +500
1. QB Justin Fields, Ohio State
Fields at +350 has a slew of positives going his way for the No. 1 slot. First, some team might like his all-around game better than Trevor Lawrence’s. Second, if there’s any injury hiccup to Lawrence, Fields might be a lock, and third – again – Lawrence might return to Clemson.
BetMGM 2021 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: +350
