Five bold, crazy, stupid, daring, wacky predictions and thoughts about where all the free agent and top NFL quarterback prospects will end up playing.
5 (Potentially) Stupid NFL Draft, Free Agent Quarterback Predictions
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– Big calls on 5 big NFL QB situations
– 4 NFL teams that MUST find a QB
– How the NFL Draft will go
– All 32 Week 1 starters will be …
After an all-time crazy football season, the NFL Draft and free agent market for quarterbacks is more insane than ever.
Thank you, Tom Brady, for ruining the curve for everyone else.
There’s no patience at this point, everyone wants the next superstar, and a good portion of the NFL has to figure out who its Week 1 starter is going to be.
Here are 5 (potentially) stupid predictions, thoughts and calls on how this is all going to shake out, starting with one major shift …
5. Let someone else develop your starting quarterback or keep pumping that NFL Draft slot machine
There was a time not all that long ago when an NFL team would draft a quarterback, let him stink and develop for a year or three, and then expect the payoff to come with a franchise-level superstar to work everything around for a decade.
Peyton Manning threw 26 touchdown passes and 28 interceptions as a rookie, Patrick Mahomes started just one game in his first year and didn’t do anything, and Aaron Rodgers barely saw the field in his first three seasons.
Now?
Tua Tagovailoa – there’s grouchiness by some that he wasn’t amazing after taking over late in his rookie season.
Dwayne Haskins – the 15th overall pick in 2019 – gone.
Daniel Jones – the 6th overall pick in 2019 – possibly pushed aside if the Giants upgrade in the draft.
Drew Lock – a 2nd round pick in 2019 – make-or-break year.
Sam Darnold – 3rd overall pick in 2018 – on the trading block, and 10th overall pick Josh Rosen is but a memory.
2016 No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff – traded. 2016 No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz – about to be traded. 2016 26th overall pick Paxton Lynch – see Drew Lock.
On the positive side, there’s so much NFL-ready quarterback talent available now that there’s no reason and no time to dink around with a guy who might just be okay. The college game is cranking out talent like never before, but there’s an easier and smarter way to do this. As 2020 showed, you can get a Philip Rivers or a Cam Newton or a Tom Brady, and that’s why there are two ways to do this.
1) Let someone else develop your quarterback, or 2) keep drafting a QB, but bail fast if he’s not amazing.
Try this out. Take 2020 out of the mix because those quarterbacks are just getting started. Who were the first three quarterbacks taken in the ten drafts before last year?
Draft round followed by overall pick in parentheses.
2019: (1, 1) Kyler Murray (great); (1, 6) Daniel Jones (meh); (1, 15) Dwayne Haskins (oooooops)
2018: (1, 1) Baker Mayfield (fine, but not exactly special); (1, 3) Sam Darnold (never had a chance on miserable teams); (1, 7) Josh Allen (NFL MVP caliber). ALSO, though (1, 10) Josh Rosen (never really had a shot and hasn’t been able to stick); (1, 32) Lamar Jackson (NFL MVP-caliber)
2017: (1, 2) Mitchell Trubisky (all-time disaster because of …); (1, 10) Patrick Mahomes (Michael Jordan); (1, 12) Deshaun Watson (superstar)
2016: (1, 1) Jared Goff (unfairly dogged, but hasn’t taken the next step); (1, 2) Carson Wentz (almost MVP-caliber early, but needs fresh start); (1, 26) Paxton Lynch (oh dear lord ….)
2015: (1, 1) Jameis Winston (had to make the pick, but never got to next level); (1, 2) Marcus Mariota (the whole thing just couldn’t get going); (3, 75) Garrett Grayson (which was why Winston and Mariota went 1-2)
2014: (1, 3) Blake Bortles (no); (1, 22) Johnny Manziel (I’m on record so I can say this – if you didn’t know at the time what a monster NFL bust he was going to be …); (1, 32) Teddy Bridgewater (catastrophic leg injury derailed promising career). BTW next was (2, 36) Derek Carr (more than serviceable NFL starting quarterback); (2, 62) Jimmy Garoppolo (serviceable NFL quarterback, but I’m still convinced that NFL teams only like him because he’s beautiful)
2013: (1, 16) EJ Manuel (Josh Allen was taken with the 7th overall pick in 2018); (2, 39) Geno Smith (to be fair, 2nd rounder); (3, 73) Mike Glennon (dude made $30 million so far and counting)
2012: (1, 1) Andrew Luck (potential all-time great who left early); (1, 2) Robert Griffin (great rookie year and that was that); (1, 8) Ryan Tannehill (carved out a nice career). BTW, after (1, 22) Brandon Weeden and (2, 57) Brock Osweiler went (3, 75) Russell Wilson, then (3, 88) Nick Foles, then (4, 102) Kirk Cousins
2011: (1, 1) Cam Newton (history and stats will be kinder than current perception); (1, 8) Jake Locker (Titans had to take Marcus Mariota with the 2nd overall pick three years later); (1, 10) Blaine Gabbert (Super Bowl LV champion quarterback)
2010: (1, 1) Sam Bradford (the last of the pre-cap QBs made over $130 million); (1, 25) Tim Tebow (New York Met wannabe); (2, 48) Jimmy Clausen (7 TD passes for Carolina, 14 picks)
The point? NFL quarterback situations are fluid now.
Patrick Mahomes is the one quarterback drafted among the top three at the position before 2018 – okay, and possibly Watson – who’s still 100% rock-solid going into 2021 for the team that drafted him. Matt Ryan (2008) and Aaron Rodgers (2005) are the only other two overall, and Ryan is iffy.
So let’s get into the big, stupid predictions …
– Big calls on 5 big NFL QB situations
– 4 NFL teams that MUST find a QB
– How the NFL Draft will go
– All 32 Week 1 starters will be …
NEXT: Big calls on 5 big NFL quarterback situations
4. Big calls on 5 big NFL quarterback situations
The five biggest NFL quarterback questions and predicted answers outside of the NFL Draft options (that’s Part 2 of this).
Deshaun Watson will stay a Houston Texan
The price tag is astronomical. Watson is obviously amazing, and several teams will try to make it work, but it’ll take a few first round picks, maybe a few second rounders, a serviceable defensive player or three, and a pony to get him. The Texans will smooth it over with their star – it’ll just take a while.
But …
New England will try to make it work for Watson
Or Jimmy Garoppolo. Cam Newton will be the backup plan, but it’ll be time to go splashy and turn this whole thing around now. Lost in New England’s bad season was that the team really was okay considering there wasn’t a passing game.
Carson Wentz will be a Chicago Bear
Chicago can’t afford what it’ll take to get Deshaun Watson – it doesn’t have the draft capital. Wentz needs a fresh start and a team that he can make his, and the Bears will be it.
Dak Prescott will go back to Dallas, redux
(Note: this is the exact same blurb written in last year’s exact same piece because it still works.)
Where else is he going to go? He’s a good talent who could start for several teams, but who’s going to put up the big dough in this market for him? He’ll stay a Cowboy.
That leads into …
Not as many quarterbacks will be ditched as you might think
Because this is such a massive draft for quarterbacks, the market is going to dry up quickly once Chicago figures out its direction.
Think about it. Who’s going to want to give away much of anything for Sam Darnold, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr when there’s the hope of getting a game-changing – and cheap – quarterback in the draft?
Who actually MUST get a new starting quarterback this offseason?
– 4 NFL teams that MUST find a QB
– How the NFL Draft will go
– All 32 Week 1 starters will be …
NEXT: NFL teams that MUST get a new quarterback
3. NFL teams that MUST get a new quarterback
The Giants should upgrade, but they’ll live with Daniel Jones. The same goes for the Jets with Sam Darnold (but that’s not happening), Chicago with Mitchell Trubisky, Denver with Drew Lock, San Francisco with Jimmy Garoppolo, and New England with Cam Newton.
These are the teams absolutely have to find a new quarterback of some sort over the next few months.
Carolina Panthers
Teddy Bridgewater was fine, but the Panthers need another option unless PJ Walker or Will Grier turn it up a few notches this offseason. Watch for the Panthers to draft a quarterback but start Bridgewater early on.
Indianapolis Colts
There’s a chance the Colts try and work out the Jacoby Brissett/Jacob Eason situation to see if one of them rises to the role, but after the Philip Rivers signing worked out so well, they’re going to want to go somewhere to get a QB who can make a splash. Of course, that’s if Mr. Luck doesn’t decide to come back.
Jacksonville Jaguars
And we know which direction the Urban Jax are going. If only there was a phenomenal prospect available at the 1 …
Washington Football Team
The Taylor Heinicke thing is cute and all, but the Football Team has to come up with a franchise guy to build around after the Dwayne Haskins debacle. There’s no way they can count on Alex Smith for a full season.
All four of these teams are going to play a huge role in the 2021 NFL Draft, so ….
– How the NFL Draft will go
– All 32 Week 1 starters will be …
NEXT: Where the QBs will go early in the NFL Draft
2. Where the QBs will go early in the NFL Draft
Okay, let’s do this.
Here’s the early call – before the free agent world kicks in full force – for how this is going to go.
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson: No. 1 overall to Jacksonville
He’d have been the No. 1 pick for Cincinnati last year if he was eligible, and he would’ve been the No. 1 overall selection by Arizona if he could’ve come out after his freshman year.
Zach Wilson, BYU: No. 2 overall to the New York Jets
There won’t be any messing around here. The Jets might entertain offers to trade out of this pick for a slew of guys and then go with Sam Darnold as the main man going forward, but Wilson has become too hot a prospect.
Trey Lance, North Dakota State: No. 4 overall to Atlanta
There’s a chance someone tries to trade up to the three to take Lance before this, and Atlanta could certainly trade down a few slots and take one of the other quarterbacks. Lance is the home run swing pick who’ll get a little time to season up behind Matt Ryan before making the transition as the franchise’s next big thing.
Justin Fields, Ohio State: No. 8 overall to Carolina
While the quarterbacks are the stars of this draft, there are enough amazing other prospects to keep teams from going too crazy to move up for a passer. Fields or Lance will slide to the 8.
Mac Jones, Alabama: No. 19 to Washington
It might not be the splashiest of quarterback picks compared to the four going ahead of him, but Jones has the tools to be a safe option for the Football Team if they don’t go hard in the free agent market. This pick is just low enough that it might work in a trade to give this away as part of a package.
Soooooooooo ….
– All 32 NFL Week 1 starters will be …
NEXT: The 32 NFL 2021 NFL starting quarterbacks will be …
1. The 32 NFL starters in 2021 Week 1 will be …
This will only take about 830 turns and twists over the next several weeks, but here’s the February pre-draft, pre-free agency call.
Every NFL team’s 2021 Week 1 starter will be (keep in mind that some teams will likely start the veteran and give the rookie a few weeks to get rolling) …
AFC East
Buffalo: Josh Allen
Miami: Tua Tagovailoa
New England: Cam Newton
New York Jets: Zach Wilson
AFC North
Baltimore: Lamar Jackson
Cincinnati: Joe Burrow
Cleveland: Baker Mayfield
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger
AFC South
Houston: Deshaun Watson
Indianapolis: Sam Darnold
Jacksonville: Trevor Lawrence
Tennessee: Ryan Tannehill
AFC West
Denver: Drew Lock
Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
Las Vegas: Derek Carr
NFC East
Dallas: Dak Prescott
New York Giants: Daniel Jones
Philadelphia: Jalen Hurts
Washington: Alex Smith
NFC North
Chicago: Carson Wentz
Detroit: Jared Goff
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers
Minnesota: Kirk Cousins
NFC South
Atlanta: Matt Ryan
Carolina: Teddy Bridgewater
New Orleans: Jamies Winston or Taysom Hill
Tampa Bay: Tom Brady
NFC West
Arizona: Kyler Murray
Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
San Francisco: Jimmy Garoppolo
Seattle: Russell Wilson
– Big calls on 5 big NFL QB situations
– 4 NFL teams that MUST find a QB
– How the NFL Draft will go
