To start speculating early, who should be the top candidates for the 2021 Heisman Trophy?
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This piece was solid four years ago when the Baker Mayfield Would Win call connected, and three years ago it was full of right ideas, wrong applications, and a whole slew of whiffs.
Let’s just say the 2019 Early Top Ten Heisman Trophy Prediction piece had … issues. No one – NO ONE – saw Joe Burrow coming.
And no, no one had DeVonta Smith in mix for the 2020 Heisman. However, we at least had Trevor Lawrence, Kyle Trask, and random Alabama quarterback in last year’s preseason mix.
Predicting the 2021 Heisman race? Assume this is all typed in pencil.
More than ever, we don’t know what we don’t know.
1. Transfers, transfers, transfers. With this year’s free pass to transfer, don’t get comfortable in any way with your current starting quarterback or top running back. It’s going to be a crazy next several months.
2. Draft, draft, draft. There are still several key guys who might opt-out, get out, or just decided they want to preserve themselves for the NFL. It’s going to be a crazy next several months.
3. Seniors, seniors, seniors. It’s possible this year for some seniors to decide they don’t want to face the real world quite yet – and why would they? In the COVID season, everyone gets an extra year of eligibility if it’s wanted. It’s going to be a crazy next several months.
And finally …
4. The real world. We’re all assuming things will be better and 2021 will see a more normal type of football season. You want to bet the house on that? We can hope for something better, but …
It’s going to be a crazy next several months.
The goal is getting the early 2021 Heisman call close to the pin, so we start with this.
2021 Heisman Trophy Watch List: Names On A List As Fliers … Just In Case
Every name in this group seems like a crazy call that has no business working in the discussion of the 2021 Heisman Trophy. Call it the Joe Burrow and DeVonta Smith curveball list.
It’s in alphabetical order after beginning with …
The Field
It’s the wimp way out, but do you really want to pick the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner a year in advance? Take The Field – not Justin Fields – over everyone else, and you’re likely to be right. But that’s no fun, so we press on.
QB Matt Corral, Jr. Ole Miss
And here we go with the parade of SEC quarterbacks. The main difference between Corral and several others is 1) experience, 2) a team with a likely bad defense to 3) once again force him to put up massive numbers. He ran for over 500 yards and four scores, and hit 71% of his throws for 3,337 yards and 29 touchdowns.
QB Max Johnson, Soph. LSU
Or, just make this spot for Insert Starting LSU QB Here. Lost in all of the problems with the Tigers in 2020 was a passing game that really did work. It wasn’t 2019, but there was hope. Now the program has to settle in on a quarterback from way too many options – and maybe a top transfer. Johnson was the star of the Florida win and closed out with a 435-yard day against Ole Miss.
QB Emory Jones, Jr. Florida
Is he really going to take over the job with Kyle Trask done? He adds more of a rushing element to the mix, provided a bit of a spark in the Oklahoma debacle, and he’s got the skills to put up huge numbers if he’s the guy.
WR John Metchie, Jr. Alabama
No, but last year at this time if someone told you that DeVonta Smith was going to be in the Heisman equation …
Metchie averaged more yards per catch than Smith (17.8 to 15.6).
QB Bo Nix, Jr. Auburn
NO NO … DON’T LEAVE! This is a covering-the-bases listing with Nix going into his third year as a starter working under a new coaching staff. He won’t have the same NFL-caliber targets he had in 2020 when he threw 12 touchdown passes, and … sorry. Okay, carrying on.
QB Brock Purdy, Sr. Iowa State
It only seems like he’s been around for 15 years, but yeah, he’s a senior. Assuming he doesn’t turn pro early, he’s a terrific veteran who should be able to put up even better numbers as the expectations are reasonably higher now.
RB Bijan Robinson, Soph. Texas
The superstar recruit of last year led the team with over 700 yards and four scores – to go along with two receiving touchdowns – averaging over eight yards per carry. He closed out the season with 172 yards and three scores against Kansas State, and 183 yards and a score in the bowl win over Colorado – averaging close to 19 yards per carry in those two games. Now he’s Steve Sarkisian’s running back to work with.
RB Isaiah Spiller, Jr. Texas A&M
The raw numbers probably won’t be there, but he might get a long look in the race in a Great Player, Top Team sort of way. He only ran for 1,036 yards and nine scores, and there are more explosive players in the backfield, but he’s going to be the main man for the Aggie O.
NEXT: Top Ten 2021 Early Heisman Candidates
10. QB D’Eriq King, Sr. Miami
How quickly can he come back from the torn ACL suffered in Miami’s bowl loss? He didn’t put up the massive numbers for the Canes like he did in 2018 for Houston – when he threw for almost 3,000 yards with 36 touchdowns, and ran for 674 yards and 14 scores – but he showed off his talent and ability to be the quarterback the program needed.
He hit 64% of his passes for close to 2,700 yards and 23 touchdowns with just five picks, and he ran for 538 yards and four scores before going down. He’s going into his sixth year as a college player, the Canes should be even better, and he’s got the talent to be amazing again – as long as he’s healthy.
9. RB Breece Hall, Jr. Iowa State
Now the college football world knows all about him.
The 6-1, 215-pounder didn’t receive a whole lot of national attention, and Alabama’s Najee Harris might have been the best running back in the country, but Hall wasn’t that far off – if at all – running for 1,572 yards and 21 touchdowns with 21 catches and two scores.
Steady, he ran for over 100 yards in each of the first eight games and hit Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl for 136 yards and two scores on 34 carries. He’s a real threat for 2,000 yards if he can break off a few more big dashes.
8. QB Casey Thompson, Soph. Texas
If he is really the starter now with Sam Ehlinger off to the NFL, the sky’s the limit. No, the job is hardly his for certain, but the hype will start right away with a young, thrilling backfield of him and Bijan Robinson to turn the page on a new era of Texas football.
He has the talent, he has the playmaking ability, and the has the head coach in Steve Sarkisian who was able to take the Alabama offense and crank it up to a whole other level.
He didn’t get a whole lot of work, but he got everyone all fired up after he took over for Ehlinger in the bowl win over Colorado in the second half, completing 8-of-10 passes for 170 yards and four scores to go along with a little bit of running.
7. QB Kedon Slovis, Jr. USC
The 2020 season never really got rolling for the entire Pac-12, and USC always looked and played like it got a late wake-up call – that might have literally happened with the 9 am local start to the year against Arizona State – but Slovis still showed a penchant for coming through with thrilling late comebacks on the way to an appearance in the Pac-12 Championship.
A slew of key guys are leaving early for the NFL, but the coaching staff that uses the high-octane passing offense is still in place and there are still enough good receivers to make the thing go.
Slovis threw for over 1,900 yards and 17 touchdowns in his six games, but the interception problem at the end of the year has to stop.
6. QB JT Daniels, Jr. Georgia
He announced he’s coming back for another year – he’s just getting started.
He left high school early and was a superstar recruit for USC, throwing for 2,672 yards and 14 touchdowns and ten picks as he got his feet wet. Just when he was about to take off, he tore up his knee in his first game as a sophomore, Kedon Slovis blew up, and he was off to Georgia.
Was his knee ready? Was he back to 100%? No matter how and why he didn’t start early on for the Bulldogs, he was fantastic once he got his shot, hitting 67% of his chances for 1,231 yards and ten touchdowns and two picks in his four games of work, and he pushed the ball down the field as well – actually, better – as any passer in the Kirby Smart era.
Now he’s the guy to handle yet another team with national title-level talent.
NEXT: The Top Five 2021 Early Heisman Candidates
5. QB Sam Howell, Jr. North Carolina
Will North Carolina’s running game be too amazing to keep Howell from rocking statistically, at least at a Heisman level?
Even though the Tar Heels were devastating on the ground and hit home run after home run with their great backs, Howell was special with close to 3,600 yards and 30 touchdowns and just seven interceptions, averaging over ten yards per throw with big play after big play.
He’s a next-level talent with 68 touchdown passes and a whole lot of experience in his first two seasons. To be in the Heisman mix he has to pull off a few massive wins and have North Carolina in the ACC title hunt, but he’s just good enough to do it.
4. QB (insert name of your choice) Ohio State
It’s not going to be Justin Fields, but it’s Ohio State. Everything is going to be okay.
Terrelle Pryor, to Braxton Miller, to JT Barrett, to Cardale Jones, to Dwayne Haskins, to Fields – let’s just say it’s been a pretty decent run of Buckeye quarterbacks.
CJ Stroud was the big recruit last year with the talent to be the next-star up, Jack Miller is a pro-style passer with nice skills, Kyle McCord was a big get in the latest recruiting class, and the star of expected stars – Quinn Ewers – is expected to sign on with the 2022 haul of talent.
Or the job might also be wide-open to the top transfer quarterback prospect of your choice.
However, as amazing as Ohio State quarterbacks have been, none of them have won since Troy Smith pulled it off in 2006.
3. QB Bryce Young, Soph. Alabama
Flip a coin on which style and which quarterback you liked in the 2020 recruiting class. DJ Uiagalelei was the dream of an NFL franchise passing talent, and he went to Clemson. Young was the dream of a playmaking dual-threat guy, and he signed with USC …
Until he went to Alabama.
Young is a smallish quarterback, but he’s ultra-quick and he can really, really throw. He wasn’t able to do much in his limited work with the 2020 Tide offense, but it’s his job to lose now for what will be another national championship-level offense.
2. QB DJ Uiagalelei, Soph. Clemson
Leave it to Clemson to go from Deshaun Watson, to Trevor Lawrence, to a 6-4, 250-pound uber-talent with the NFL tools right out of the box.
Thrown into a tough situation against Boston College in the middle of the season when Lawrence was out, and with the defense lousy in the first half, all DJ Uiagalelei did was engineer a comeback with 342 yards and two touchdowns.
But the moment was going to be too big for the true freshman in the game of the year against Notre Dame in South Bend. 439 yards and two touchdowns later – along with a rushing score in each of those two games – he gave Tiger fans a glimpse of things to come.
Even after the rough end to the season for Clemson, there’s another loaded team returning that’s going to be good enough to win the national championship.
It’ll all be led by a guy who’ll be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
1. QB Spencer Rattler, Soph. Oklahoma
It’s been way too long since an Oklahoma quarterback won a Heisman, or was even a finalist.
After a year off – Baker Mayfield won it in 2017, Kyler Murray won in 2018, and Jalen Hurts was a finalist in 2019 – OU will have a QB back in the mix in 2021.
Rattler was a different type of star Sooner quarterback, recruited by Lincoln Riley and not coming in as a top transfer like Murray or Hurts, or a walk-on like Mayfield was from Texas Tech. He’s not the dynamic runner like Murray or Hurts, and he’s not the pure passer like Mayfield, but he’s got the all-around mix of skills to put up massive numbers for yet another big season.
He struggled a bit early with his decision-making late in games – throwing three picks in a loss to Kansas State – but he got better and better as the year went on, helped the Sooners win the Big 12 title and rock Florida in the Cotton Bowl, and now he’s ready to be amazing.
Oklahoma should be College Football Playoff good, the receiving corps is going to be great, and it has the guy to run it all with a season that should end with a trip to New York – and that should be back on again, fingers crossed – and in the mix for the greatest individual award in sports.
