The past decade was a time of great evolution and change in MMA, much of which even the most diehard fight fans couldn’t have seen coming. What will the first year of the next decade bring? Here are 10 bold predictions as the 2020 schedule gets set to kick off.
Without further ado …
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Khabib Nurmagomedov retires 30-0
UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov has made no secret that he doesn’t intend to have an extended career. His body has gone through the ringer due to various injuries over the years.
Moreover, Nurmagomedov already has etched out an undeniable legacy. If he can add a few more layers to that, he honestly doesn’t have much reason to keep going. If Nurmagomedov can get through what many believe to be his biggest obstacle in Tony Ferguson at UFC 249 in April, then there really aren’t many true challenges left for “The Eagle.” Another win after that would bring his career record to 30-0, and if that fight is a massive one, like his long-desired Georges St-Pierre superfight – or perhaps a Conor McGregor rematch – he pretty much will have done it all.
The only reason for Nurmagomedov to stick around beyond that would be to reap the benefits of being a massive star (far bigger than now), and that money is hard to walk away from. Everyone around Nurmagomedov has long said financial security is of no concern to him, though. If that’s true, it elevates the chances of this happening.
Four current UFC title reigns end prior to a successful defense
Of the UFC’s current crop of champions, the following have yet to register a successful title defense during their current reign: Stipe Miocic (heavyweight), Israel Adesanya (middleweight), Alexander Volkanovski (featherweight), Henry Cejudo (bantamweight), Amanda Nunes (women’s featherweight), and Zhang Weili (strawweight).
More than half of those title reigns will go down as a flash in the pan.
Jon Jones’ UFC title record gets broken
For more than eight years, Jon Jones’ record for youngest champion in UFC history has gone largely unchallenged. Rose Namajunas had an opportunity to break his mark back in December 2014, but she fell short of winning the inaugural strawweight title.
2020, however, is the year Jones will be bumped from the history books. 21-year-old Maycee Barber (women’s flyweight or strawweight), 22-year-old Edmen Shahbazyan (middleweight) and 22-year-old Song Yadong (bantamweight) are all on the rise, and have already secured ranked positions in their respective weight classes.
They all have challenging paths, but one will claim UFC gold in the next 12 months.
A.J. McKee becomes champion and Bellator’s biggest star
Bellator has received criticism for the way its slow-played many of its prospects, but going into 2020, it’s difficult to look at A.J. McKee and argue Scott Coker mishandled the development of a young man who will soon be the face of the organization.
At just 24, McKee already holds a plethora of Bellator records. He’s validated himself in a big way over his past few fights, advancing to the semifinals of the ongoing Bellator featherweight grand prix. In order to win that tournament (and the featherweight belt), he’s going to have to go through some real tough competition, but if he comes out the other end on top – watch out.
McKee has spent his entire career with Bellator. His fighting style is tremendously entertaining to watch, and he has personality for days. If adds a belt to all that, there’s no reason Bellator shouldn’t push him to the moon.
UFC disbands at least one weight class
The UFC flyweight division and women’s featherweight division have been on shaky ground essentially since their inceptions, and 2020 could be the year one – or both of them – finally go.
Yes, Henry Cejudo “saved” the flyweight division, and there is a vacant title fight between Joseph Benavidez and Deiveson Figueiredo lined up for Feb. 29, but what comes next? As fun as the weight class can be, there’s just not a lot of money-making fights at 125 pounds.
In comparison to the women’s featherweight division, though, flyweight is a thriving wonderland. Champion Amanda Nunes hasn’t defended her belt since winning it in December 2018, and although the promotion has signed a few new fighters to the weight class, there’s still not much going on. Nunes really wants to defend that 145 title for her legacy, but once that happens, the UFC could finally decide to pull the plug.
(Next page: PFL’s future, UFC vs. Bellator, and more)
PFL’s 2020 season is its last
Make no mistake: This is not my hope by any means. The more MMA promotions that exist and thrive means more options for fighters, which means a healthier sport overall, especially when it comes to a promotion like PFL, which is paying significant money to its athletes with those $1 million year-end incentives.
After milking its former promotional namesake of WSOF for all its worth before re-branding, 2020 marks the third year of operations for PFL, and it feels like a do-or-die year. From all indications, the investors behind PFL have deep pockets, but thus far it hasn’t shown to be a moneymaking model. The best thing that can be said is that PFL has afforded opportunities to fighters who fail to generate any sort of traction for anything but their skills. And while that’s great, it’s no secret that’s not what drives big business in MMA.
Signing Rory MacDonald was a nice move, and it will be interesting to see what other talent PFL can recruit in the coming months before the next season begins in order to create a fresh dynamic going into its most crucial year yet. 2020 marks the last of PFL’s two-year broadcast deal with ESPN. If the promotion does not get a renewal offer with a meaningful increase for rights fees, the financial support to press on might disappear.
UFC, Bellator go head to head on ESPN, CBS
With the CBS and Viacom merger last year, it seems the Bellator product isn’t long for Paramount. The channel just doesn’t fit the product, and the merger opens up different opportunities and platforms for it to move around. It’s been a long time since a major MMA event was televised on CBS, but the channel has a history with the sport. Getting Bellator on there seems like a great way to get exposure for the brand.
Although the days of UFC president Dana White holding a tombstone with rival promotion’s names engraved are long gone, he’s still highly competitive. Perhaps it will be out of pure scheduling luck, but if and when Bellator lands on CBS, the UFC will attempt to drag it down with some good ol’ fashioned counter-programming on ESPN.
No champ-champs in UFC or Bellator
When all is said and done at the end of 2020, neither the UFC nor Bellator will have an active simultaneous two-division champion. The start of this trend kicked off late in 2019, with Henry Cejudo giving up his UFC flyweight title in order to pursue his reign as bantamweight champ.
With Cejudo out of the mix, the lone remaining dual-champs are: Nunes as UFC women’s featherweight and bantamweight champion, Patricio Freire as Bellator featherweight and lightweight champ, and Ryan Bader as Bellator light heavyweight and heavyweight champion.
Not to say all those fighters will lose in 2020, but that’s a lot of weight classes under the roof of just a few fighters, and sometimes politics comes into play that causes belts to be separated from their owners.
UFC-Reebok relationship ends
It hasn’t been a major topic of conversation yet, but 2020 marks the final full year of the UFC’s sponsorship agreement with Reebok. The deal, which has gone by various names such as “Athlete Outfitting Pay” and “Promotional Guidelines Compliance Pay,” has been controversial, has been controversial since it began in mid-2015..
The partnership between the UFC and Reebok essentially killed what was left of the independent sponsor market in MMA, and many fighters were hit hard in their bank accounts. It wasn’t for something entirely positive, either, as there’s been a long list of flops that we need not go into the details of. But, just look at Conor McGregor’s UFC 246 walkout shirt. That thing costs $60.
We’ll know by the end of this year if the UFC renews its deal with Reebok, but it will only happen if there’s no better alternative (because the promotion certainly won’t go back to letting fighters wear what they want). The UFC brand has come a long way since 2015, and there’s a good chance it’ll succeed in finding another partner who will pay more and (hopefully) create a superior product.
Another former UFC champion gets ‘traded’
Although calling the Demetrious Johnson-for-Ben Askren deal that happened in 2018 a “trade” is a somewhat inaccurate, it’s a term that resonates with sports fans and brings some understanding to the exchange in fighter contract rights.
Many believed that deal between UFC and ONE Championship was a one-off, but it won’t be. Not only will the UFC make a similar deal for one of its fighters, but, like “Mighty Mouse,” it will be a high-profile name who held a title for a significant amount of time.
