WASHINGTON _ Former Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas on Thursday became the third Republican former House member to announce a 2020 comeback bid in a different district from the one he served previously, joining Darrell Issa of California and Bobby Schilling, who once represented Illinois and now is running in Iowa.
Sessions represented suburban Dallas for 22 years, but lost his bid for a 12th term in Texas' 32nd District to Democratic Rep. Colin Allred by nearly 7 percentage points last November.
Now he's touting his roots as a Waco native and running in the much more reliably Republican 17th District where Rep. Bill Flores is one of six Longhorn State members whose decisions not to run for reelection have been branded a GOP "Texodus."
"My goal is to work together to restore the Republican majority in the House and maintain our control of the Senate and White House," Sessions said in a statement ahead of his official campaign announcement Thursday.
There is ample evidence that candidates who switch districts _ and even states _ can win elections, and Sessions, Issa and Schilling hope to join those ranks.
One Democrat has also crossed district lines to run next year. Hiral Tipernini is vying in Arizona's 6th District after losing both a special election and a general election in the 8th District in 2018 to Republican Rep. Debbie Lesko.
Issa represented a coastal portion of San Diego County _ most recently California's 49th District _ for 18 years before retiring in January. After a nomination to work in President Donald Trump's administration stalled in the Senate, the former House Oversight chairman decided last week to jump into the crowded primary for California's 50th District against GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter, who faces trial in January on charges of embezzling $250,000 in campaign cash.
Schilling, who represented Illinois' 17th District for one term from 2011 to 2013, is one the top Republican candidates so far in Iowa's 2nd District, a prime pick-up opportunity for Republicans with Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack retiring. Of the 31 districts held by Democrats that Trump carried in 2016, Iowa's 2nd is the only one without a Democratic incumbent on the 2020 ballot.
"This is a district that, in 2010, should have been won," Schilling told CQ Roll Call in August. "And it is going to be won in 2020."
Rumors had swirled for months that Sessions might try to mount a comeback in his old 32nd District despite the recent leftward turn of suburban voters. In addition to Allred's 2018 midterm victory, the district broke for Hillary Clinton by roughly 2 percentage points in 2016.
Allred, a former NFL player and civil rights attorney, has already established himself as a rising star in the Democratic Party. He was elected class co-president by his fellow freshman Democrats, a strong indicator that he's on track for a party leadership position.
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the 2020 race for the 32nd District "leans Democratic."
The 17th District race has an Inside Elections rating of "solid Republican." Trump carried the district _ which includes parts of Austin and its northeast suburbs and extends out into a rural expanse surrounding the Austin-Dallas-Houston triangle _ by 17 percentage points in 2016.
Sessions joins retired Marine and Iraq War veteran Trent Sutton in the Republican primary. Rick Kennedy, the 2018 Democratic nominee who lost to Flores by 15.5 points in the 2018 midterm, is running again on the other side.
Sessions, Schilling and Issa are certain to face accusations from other candidates that they are no more than johnny-come-latelys who smelled political opportunity in another district and followed their noses.
Republicans and Democrats in California's 50th District have already begun pounding Issa for quitting his old 49th District in 2018 before it fell to Democrat Mike Levin, and running in the more politically favorable 50th.
"The 50th isn't my sloppy seconds," Democratic candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar said.
It's unclear whether such attacks from other candidates will have any detrimental effect on the campaigns of Sessions, Issa and Schilling.
Three House Democrats _ Reps. Susie Lee of Nevada, Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona, and Ed Case of Hawaii _ won races in new districts in 2018 after previously running or serving in others.
Before he became West Virginia's attorney general in 2013 (and an unsuccessful GOP Senate nominee in 2018), Republican Patrick Morrisey lost the 2000 GOP primary in New Jersey's 7th District.
And let's not forget that Utah GOP Sen. Mitt Romney is a former two-term governor from Massachusetts.
"No one cares about carpetbagging," said John Thomas, a veteran GOP strategist in California. "As just a general political science question, the carpetbagging charge has not been effective in about 10 years."
That calculus changes, though, if the carpetbagging message about an opponent is paired with evidence that the opponent's values do not match those of voters in the new district.
"If it's combined with, 'He's not a good fit for the district,' then yes," that can be effective negative messaging, Thomas said.
