If the Cincinnati Bengals could, they would have surely put in their pick on Tuesday morning after the national championship game. They’re taking LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, and it’s hard to imagine anything or anyone stopping them.
On that note, I’ll make an admission. We may have gone a little overboard with the quarterbacks. There are five in the first round. But let’s be real: mock drafts are rarely right at this point in the offseason. It’s not that I’m not trying to be accurate. I am. But the most interesting part of the draft conversation — and the NFL conversation — centers around quarterbacks. This mock draft serves as an avenue to tap into that discussion.
The quarterbacks and receivers have tremendous potential in this draft. It’s beginning to look freakish. Even tackle is impressive. It’s possible — and maybe probable — that offense owns this first round in April.
Here’s a look at our first-round mock draft.
Picks 1-8 | Picks 9-16 | Picks 17-24 | Picks 25-32
1. Cincinnati (2-14) — Joe Burrow, QB, LSU, Sr.
In one way — and one way only — Burrow is a risky pick. He’s only a two-year starter and a one-year producer. He has been an absolute stud during the 2019 season, but he’s got just one year of film and one year of production, which is reason for concern.
But what am I doing talking down Burrow?
That 2019 film is glorious. He’s glorious. He’s going to be an excellent pro.
2. Washington (3-13) — Chase Young, Edge, Ohio St., Jr.
The Redskins just drafted their quarterback, Dwayne Haskins, a 2019 first-round pick. So Washington will take Haskins’ former teammate: Young. He’s the type of do-it-all edge defender who tends to skyrocket to the top of drafts. Young is almost as good of a prospect as Burrow, but defensive end is less valuable than quarterback.
3. Detroit (3-12-1) — Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Alabama
General manager Bob Quinn and coach Matt Patricia should open up phone lines to see if anyone wants to trade up to leapfrog the Miami Dolphins and take Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. If no one bites, the Lions could address a number of positions, but let’s give Detroit a complement to tackle Taylor Decker. Wills can help Patricia with a run-first offense, while protecting Matthew Stafford, who was enjoying one of his best seasons before suffering an injury.
4. N.Y. Giants (4-12) — Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson, Jr.
The Giants invested in a quarterback last year, and New York is having issues protecting him. The predictable pick is a tackle, but as long as general manager Dave Gettleman is on the clock, something weird is going to happen. How about Simmons, a safety-linebacker hybrid? The versatile defender would be a boon to New York’s defense. It would feel a lot like the Giants’ selection of Saquon Barkley. Gettleman puts aside the fact that each player is at a position that’s no longer valued at a premium. Instead, he hopes to land one of the most productive and physically gifted players in the draft.
5. Miami (5-11) — Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama, Jr.
Don’t rule out the Dolphins passing on a quarterback again. They brought in Chan Gailey to serve as offensive coordinator, and the Dolphins seem to genuinely want to help Ryan Fitzpatrick succeed. (What could go wrong?)
But in the event Miami comes to their senses and realizes The Fitzmagic only lasts so long, they should take Tua, who was in the running for the No. 1 pick for most of this season until suffering a hip injury.
Poor, poor Josh Rosen may find himself on Facebook Marketplace, listed as “lightly used” and at an alarmingly low price.
6. L.A. Chargers (5-11) — Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Let’s not kid ourselves: the quarterbacks are going to rise in this draft class. They always do. Whether the Chargers take a quarterback or someone else trades up to get their guy, it’s entirely possible — and maybe probable — that three quarterbacks go in the top six picks. The top two talents are clearly special. There are plenty of question marks around players like Herbert, Washington’s Jacob Eason and Utah State’s Jordan Love. But cocky GMs and coaches will know they have the answers. In this case, Herbert supplants quarterback Philip Rivers, and brings much-need buzz to L.A.’s (distantly) second-most popular team.
7. Carolina (5-11) — Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio St., Jr.
Finally, Okudah helps the Panthers forget about cornerback Josh Norman, who was brilliant in Carolina, even if he’s had a turbulent runout on his career. Unless the Panthers trade Cam Newton — which they probably shouldn’t do — they won’t consider a quarterback. Instead, they’ll land an elite shutdown corner.
8. Arizona (5-10-1) — Derrick Brown, DL, Auburn
More toys for Kliff Kingsbury? Not so fast. The Cardinals allowed 402 yards per game. That’s really bad. They had the second-worst passing defense and the ninth-worst rushing defense. So perhaps let’s get a player who can address both issues: Brown. He’s got the rare combination of size and athleticism that defensive coordinators scheme around. He’ll be a menace getting into the backfield, whether on passing or running plays. (Oklahoma receiver CeeDee Lamb is a tempting option, considering he and Murray were teammates in college.)
9. Jacksonville (6-10) — CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
The Jaguars need to give Gardner Minshew some help. (I will accept no other reality than the one where Minshew is Jacksonville’s starter in 2020.) Lamb is a star in the making. Receivers are a tough position to draft, but Lamb is worth the risk. He and D.J. Chark could be a special combo.
10. Cleveland (6-10) — Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
If Thomas lasts to this point in the draft, the Browns will have their draft card ready as soon as they go on the clock. Put them down for an SEC left tackle, who is 6-foot-5, 320 pounds and is likely to impress at the combine in Indianapolis. Baker Mayfield will breathe a sigh of relief. If Thomas is gone, Iowa tackle Tristan Wirfs is another excellent option.
11. N.Y. Jets (7-9) — Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
As mentioned, Wirfs is an excellent option for any tackle-needy team. But let’s give quarterback Sam Darnold help at another position, where he’s likely to see Robby Anderson depart (and surely thrive soon after, just like most offensive skill players do after leaving Adam Gase). Jeudy isn’t just athletic — he’s polished and NFL-ready.
12. Las Vegas (7-9) — Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
I can see Jon Gruden sitting in his (now-private) “QB Camp” with Love during a pre-draft meeting. “I’ll tell ya what, man, there isn’t a single quarterback in this draft that has the tools like you. [Expletive], you look like a toolshed with legs, man. I’m thinking about rolling the dice on you. Vegas, right? I like my odds. Knock on wood if you’re with me.”
Love could benefit from a season behind Derek Carr. But the Raiders have flexibility with Carr. If they cut him in 2019, his cap hit is $5 million. If it’s 2020, it’s $2.5 million.
The Raiders desperately need a cornerback, but there are two or three they would be happy with getting at No. 12, so they’ll bank on one of those players being around when they pick again at 19. This quarterback project is too good to miss.
13. Indianapolis (7-9) — Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
Alabama is owning the first round of this mock draft. The Colts need a quarterback, but perhaps quarterback Tom Brady will take over and serve as the starter ahead of Jacoby Brissett once again. Regardless of who is playing quarterback in Indy, that man will like this pick. He’s a speedster with a solid route-tree. Imagine adding Tyreek Hill to this offense. That said, if left tackle Anthony Costanzo retires, I’d imagine the Colts take Wirfs.
14. Tampa Bay (7-9) — Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina
Maybe he’s a good fit as a defensive tackle in a 4-3 scheme, but his talent is too tempting for the Buccaneers to pass on the opportunity to try him as a 3-4 defensive end on the same line as Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh. Kinlaw certainly moves well enough with his impressive size. He’s the kind of player who makes offensive linemen nervous before the snap. A quarterback could be in play, if Jameis Winston departs this offseason, though there isn’t an obvious one on the board for Tampa.
15. Denver (7-9) — Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
The Broncos believe they finally have a franchise quarterback in Drew Lock. And if they do, everyone will be kicking themselves for passing on Lock in 2019. But let’s give him better protection on the right side of that line. Wirfs is a technician, who is yet another product of Kirk Ferentz’s academy for offensive linemen at Iowa.
16. Atlanta (7-9) — D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia
The Falcons can get out from under Devonta Freeman’s contract with an unfortunate but necessary $6 million cap hit. Considering his injuries and his generally mediocre play, they’d be wise to move on after finishing with the third-worst rushing offense in the league. Swift seems like he’s the best back in this draft, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Clemson’s Travis Etienne pulls ahead with a strong performance at the combine.
Picks 1-8 | Picks 17-24 | Picks 25-32
17. Dallas (8-8) — Cole Kmet, TE, Notre Dame
It feels like a good tight end is hard to find. There’s George Kittle, Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz — and everyone else. Perhaps the Cowboys can change that by bringing Kmet into their offense. He’s complete tight end, who should be able to contribute as a blocker and pass-catcher immediately (he’s 6-foot-5, 250 pounds). Washington’s Hunter Bryant is another impressive tight end, but doesn’t have the size (6-foot-2, 240 pounds) that the Cowboys will want if they keep hammering the ball with running back Ezekiel Elliott.
18. Miami from Pittsburgh (8-8) — Grant Delpit, S, LSU
Delpit is a player may are pegging as a good fit for Dallas, which is also in need of a safety. But because Dallas was busy getting Dak Prescott another playmaker, Miami’s secondary plays beneficiary. The Dolphins badly need an upgrade (everywhere) — Delpit will be a day-one starter, who can help Miami improve their takeaway margin.
19. Las Vegas from Chicago (8-8) — Alabama, CB, Xavier McKinney
The Raiders still have holes all over their secondary, so why not get a player who can do it all? McKinney is versatile, talented and an every-down complication for opposing quarterbacks. That’s exactly what this ailing secondary needs. His selection kicks off a run of cornerbacks.
20. Jacksonville from L.A. Rams (9-7) — Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama
Another SEC cornerback who excelled in 2019. Diggs looks like a prototypical No. 1 cornerback the making, with no shortage of good film in 2019, even if an injury shortened his 2018 season. Diggs is not Jalen Ramsey, but the Jaguars would get a unique corner with good length at 6-foot-2.
21. Philadelphia (9-7) — Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
He’s a Pro Football Focus favorite as the best cornerback in the SEC in 2019. He’ll help the Eagles secondary in a big way. His national championship performance wasn’t exactly indicative of what he can be. He has the potential to be the best cornerback in this draft.
22. Buffalo (10-6) — Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
Receiver John Brown was brilliant and tight end Dawson Knox exceeded expectations. Running back Devin Singletary looked electric. But Cole Beasley wasn’t a reliable source of production. If Buffalo and quarterback Josh Allen are going to keep trending upward, the Bills make need to keep surrounding their quarterback with weapons.
23. New England (12-4) — Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia
No quarterback suffered more from the “devaluation period” in 2019. Signal-callers like Fromm, Tagovailoa and Herbert deserved to declare for the draft in 2019 and their value has each taken a hit. But with Fromm, it has felt dramatic. Some consider him a mid-round pick. In an NFL where everyone is looking for the next Patrick Mahomes, Fromm is clearly not it. Fromm’s arm isn’t strong — his speed will underwhelm.
Still, he’s calm in the pocket. He’s very accurate, he’s a good decision-maker, he’s cerebral and he’s a hard worker. The Patriots have long valued those qualities more than athletic and freakish upside. Much has been made of Bill Belichick’s relationship with Nick Saban, but the Patriots took two Bulldogs in the first round of the 2018 draft. New England deeply trusts what Georgia coach Kirby Smart is doing, too.
24. New Orleans (13-3) — Laviska Shenault, Jr., WR, Colorado
Michael Thomas proved he can carry a passing offense. But the Saints may want to find a complement for him for fear of overloading him in a second consecutive season. Shenault is big and physical, and he managed solid production in an underwhelming offense. Because he dealt with injuries in 2019, his 2018 season is the best representation of his potential: 86 catches, 1,011 yards, six touchdowns.
Picks 1-8 | Picks 9-16 | Picks 25-32
25. Minnesota (10-6) — Josh Jones, OT, Houston
If the Vikings want to improve in pass-protection, then Jones is their man at this point in the draft. Per PFF, he only allowed four pressures on 325 pass-blocking snaps. Louisville tackle Mekhi Becton is another good option, and is probably the choice if they feel they need greater improvements for run-blocking, as his tremendous size would prove valuable for running back Dalvin Cook.
26. Miami from Houston (10-6) — Louisville, OT, Mekhi Becton
Speaking of the big man, let’s slot him in for the Dolphins. Coach Brian Flores’ mind was surely spinning at nights over one football-guy question: How do we establish the run? Maybe a running back like Etiene or Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor would help. But hopefully Flores and Miami general manager Chris Grier are wise enough to know that a running back is a waste at this slot. They should take a risk on a potentially elite offensive lineman.
27. Seattle (11-5) — Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State
Jadeveon Clowney and Ezekieh Ansah are both set to be free agents. The Seahawks should bring in at least one young edge defender, so they don’t break the bank at that one position. This Penn State pass-rusher is a Draft Wire favorite, and a young man with an incredible story. If coach Pete Carroll wants another lengthy cornerback, Clemson’s A.J. Terrell fits the mold.
28. Baltimore (14-2) — Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
He’s ready for the NFL game, whether the Ravens deploy Jefferson in the slot or outside. He’s a rangy and graceful athlete at 6-foot-3, 190 pounds. He can help serve as a safety net for Lamar Jackson in the passing game.
29. *Tennessee (9-7) — Hunter Bryant, TE, Washington
The Titans probably need another reliable edge rusher, as their sack-leader Harold Landry had a rough finish to the regular season. But perhaps coach Mike Vrabel and general manager Jon Robinson will want to try something different: a big slot option for quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Corey Davis is a nice piece but he’s nothing special. Bryant has the potential to be a nightmare matchup on the inside.
30. *Green Bay (13-3) — Jordan Elliott, DT, Missouri
Let’s sneak Elliott into the back end of the first round on a team in dire need of run support. The 6-foot-4, 315-pound defensive lineman moves well at his size, and he finished with 44 tackles and 2.5 sacks in the middle of the Tigers’ defense. He’d be an anchor at the line of scrimmage for the Packers.
31. *Kansas City (12-4) — Raekwon Davis, DE, Alabama
He would work well on the opposite edge of defensive end Dee Ford. Davis has faced no shortage of NFL-caliber tackles and guards this season in the SEC, and should be a force, particular in run defense, where the Chiefs were lacking in 2019.
32. *San Francisco (13-3) — K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU
What do you give to the team that seems to have everything? This, as always, would be a good place for a team to trade up for a quarterback. This is the final slot that allows a team to put a fifth-year option on their pick. So if someone wants Eason, they can get him.
If the 49ers do make the pick, this draft selection may come down to what happens in free agency. But let’s just take another player who will help their defensive line, because that’s the unit which has come to define this team’s defense. Chaisson had 13.5 sacks and 60 tackles in 2019. Not bad for the final pick of the first round.
