The wait is nearly over, NFL fans.
In just mere hours, the 2020 NFL Draft will finally kick off, and the strangest predraft process in recent memory will crescendo in (hopefully) a glitch-free virtual experience.
Before the real action gets rolling, here’s my final attempt at projecting how the top 32 picks will shake out, including a handful of trades. This is how I think the first round might unfold, rather than the picks I would make if I had the chance.
Happy draft day, y’all. We made it.
*denotes projected trade
1. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow | QB | LSU
This has been set in stone for quite some time. No, Burrow never had any problems with the idea of playing for the Bengals, despite whatever rumors may have circulated throughout the draft process.
I also don’t buy the narrative that he can’t be successful in Cincinnati, or that the Bengals have a poor track record with drafting quarterbacks. Carson Palmer was one of the league’s best throughout his tenure in Cincy, and Andy Dalton was effective enough to be worthy of his second-round draft slot. They won the division twice with Palmer at the helm, and made five straight trips to the playoffs with Dalton.
The Bengals have been uncharacteristically aggressive in free agency this year, hoping to build a winner around their eventual franchise quarterback. Burrow is their man, and he’s got all the tools to return this team to playoff contention.
2. Washington Redskins
Chase Young | EDGE | Ohio State
I think this spot will warrant some phone calls, but I don’t expect Washington to get the kind of deal they’ll need to pass up the chance to take the best prospect in this draft.
Young has been destined to be a top-2 draft pick since the moment he set foot on campus in Columbus, and he’s lived up to the hype all along the way. Even when he’s not racking up sacks and TFLs, Young is impacting the way opposing offenses game-plan on a weekly basis. Even when he’s not making plays, he’s setting up his teammates because the offense works so hard to avoid him.
Barring a massive trade-down haul, this is a huge no-brainer for Ron Rivera and his new crew. Young has Hall of Fame potential, no matter the scheme or the supporting cast, and he’s the kind of player that can transform an entire defense.
3. Miami Dolphins (from DET)*
Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Alabama
Sorry, but I’m just not buying all these smokescreens coming out of Miami. It’s lying season across the league, and I think this one stinks all the way from South Beach.
I can’t bring myself to believe Chris Grier and Brian Flores prefer Oregon’s Justin Herbert over Tua, and I definitely can’t imagine them moving up for an offensive tackle when there are four of them worthy of taking at No. 5, if that’s the direction they want to go.
Everything we’ve seen and heard points to Tua being fully recovered, fully healthy and ready to live up to the hype his impressive collegiate career built. He’s a quick processor, has surgical accuracy, and rises to the occasion in the biggest games and moments. That guy’s worth moving up for, and it may not even cost a first-rounder to make the two-pick jump with the Lions.
4. New York Giants
Tristan Wirfs | OT | Iowa
I don’t know if Dave Gettleman is fooling everyone with his “I don’t know how to work technology” bit, but I am quite confident in his old-school drafting habits.
That means that while there are some dynamic talents at flashier positions available here, I see Gettleman going the less-sexy route and shoring up his offensive line to help his young quarterback and get the most out of Saquon Barkley.
Any of the top four offensive tackles would make sense here, but Wirfs has rare athleticism, and the versatility to play either tackle or guard spot. He’s got as much upside as any blocker in this year’s deep class, and that gives him the nod here.
5. Detroit Lions (from MIA)*
Jeff Okudah | CB | Ohio State
This is the ideal scenario for the Lions, who move back a couple of spots, pick up one of Miami’s second-round picks, and still have their choice of two blue-chip defenders who fit their biggest needs.
Auburn defensive lineman Derrick Brown should get strong consideration here, but I think the Lions tipped their hand when they traded away Darius Slay. Desmond Trufant gives them a reliable veteran replacement, but Okudah is the long-term shutdown guy.
There’s a decent gap between Okudah and the rest of this year’s corner class, and considering how premium of a position it is, it makes him a fantastic value at No. 5 overall. This move gives the Lions exactly what they need, and another early pick with which they can address their other needs along the defensive line.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
Andrew Thomas | OT | Georgia
Herbert is the popular pick here, but I’m not convinced that’s the right move for Anthony Lynn and company, who followed up two winning seasons and a division title with a disappointing 5-11 mark last year.
If the Bolts want a QB in this draft, I think they might prefer waiting until the second round for someone like Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts, or maybe trading back into the latter part of the first round for Utah State’s Jordan Love (or Herbert, depending on how far he falls). Tyrod Taylor is good enough to win games right now, and this pick needs to make an immediate impact.
That’s why Thomas makes the most sense. He’s the most polished, pro-ready tackle in this class, and he’s been battle-tested against top competition. He’s an experienced starter at left tackle, which replaces what the Bolts lost in Russell Okung, and allows the recently signed Bryan Bulaga to stay at his normal right tackle spot.
7. Carolina Panthers
Isaiah Simmons | LB | Clemson
This scenario leaves the Panthers with a tough decision to make, but picking between two blue-chip defenders at positions of need is a good problem to have on draft day.
Interior defensive line is a need here, so Brown is a strong possibility, but the unexpected retirement of Luke Kuechly tips the scales in favor of Simmons. Some may wonder where his best position is at the next level, but any defensive coordinator worth his laminated play sheet should be able to make sure a guy this athletic and this talented makes an impact no matter where he lines up.
Simmons is a plug-and-play upgrade at either linebacker or safety, and helps alleviate the loss of Kuechly to some degree. No matter what position he plays, Simmons is a dynamic player who is a steal outside the top five.
8. Atlanta Falcons (from ARI)*
Derrick Brown | DL | Auburn
The Cardinals could use this pick to address any number of needs, including offensive tackle, receiver, and even interior defensive line if they want to take Brown themselves here.
But, this draft is deep at receiver, and D.J. Humphries’ return makes tackle less of an immediate need. Plus, they don’t have a second-round pick thanks to the DeAndre Hopkins trade, and could add one by making this move with the Falcons.
Everyone is talking about the Falcons wanting to trade up, and possibly seeking a corner like Florida’s CJ Henderson. But I think if Brown is still on the board here, he’s their target. He teams up with Grady Jarrett to give the Dirty Birds a formidable tandem at the heart of their defensive line.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from JAX)*
Jedrick Wills, Jr. | OT | Alabama
The Bucs need an offensive tackle in the worst way, and after already seeing two of the top four come off the board, they simply can’t afford to wait around and hope one of the others falls to them at No. 14 overall.
The Jaguars are already loaded with picks, but following the trade the brought Rob Gronkowski out of retirement, the Bucs could send former top-20 pick O.J. Howard to Jacksonville in return for making this jump up the board. It gives the Jags a promising weapon at tight end, and allows them to get better value with their first pick considering who’s currently on the board here.
For Tampa Bay, Donovan Smith is locked in at left tackle for at least one more year, but the right tackle spot is a huge question mark with Demar Dotson still not re-signed, and veteran Joe Haeg better suited as a depth piece. Wills is an experienced right tackle who went up against top competition in the SEC, and is a perfect fit here.
10. Denver Broncos (from CLE)*
Henry Ruggs III | WR | Alabama
The Browns need a left tackle bad, so don’t rule out Louisville’s Mekhi Becton here if they keep the pick. That said, if they get a sweet offer to move back, they could prefer to take the deal and either hope Becton falls to them, or go in a different direction altogether.
The Broncos have a big, physical No. 1 receiver in Courtland Sutton, but he needs a running make with the speed and explosiveness to challenge opposing defenses over the top and take attention away from him. Ruggs has elite track speed, and the big-play ability to have a Tyreek Hill type of impact at the next level.
Speed kills in today’s NFL, so don’t be shocked if the Broncos make Ruggs the first receiver off the board in this year’s loaded class. Denver has three picks in the third round, and could use two two of them (and maybe another pick) to make this move.
11. New York Jets
Jerry Jeudy | WR | Alabama
Offensive tackle is a need here, so Becton could also be in the mix. But with questions surrounding a flagged drug test at the NFL Scouting Combine hovering over Becton, it wouldn’t be surprising to see teams take a safer route with their top pick, especially if there’s better value at another position of need.
That’s what happens here with the Jets, who let Robby Anderson walk in free agency, leaving them without a true No. 1 wide receiver for Sam Darnold. They’re not getting the first wide receiver off the board in this scenario, but they are getting the best, most complete one in the draft in Jeudy.
Jeudy does everything well, at every level of the field, from ankle-breaking routes to explosive big-play ability both after the catch and down the field. He’s exactly what Darnold and this offense needs to replace Anderson, and he’s a bargain outside the top 10.
12. Las Vegas Raiders
CeeDee Lamb | WR | Oklahoma
The run on wide receivers continues, as the Raiders cover up the Antonio Brown debacle by finally adding the No. 1 receiver Derek Carr so desperately needs.
There are many who consider Lamb the best receiver in this year’s extremely deep class, and he can certainly make a strong argument. He’s a well-rounded prospect who runs smooth routes, knows how to work back to his quarterback when things break down, and makes big things happen after the catch.
Corner is a big need, too, which could make Henderson tempting here. But There will be plenty of corners still on the board when the Raiders pick again at No. 19 overall, and getting arguably the best receiver in the draft isn’t worth passing up.
13. San Francisco 49ers (from IND)
Justin Jefferson | WR | LSU
Four in a row? Why not. This pick feels like something that’s gaining more and more steam, both in terms of Jefferson’s rising stock and the way he would fit exactly what Kyle Shanahan wants for his offense.
Jefferson’s well-rounded skill set would pair perfectly with the versatility of Deebo Samuel, giving Jimmy Garoppolo a smooth route-runner with an extremely polished game. He’s ready to make an impact from Day 1, fills a big need, and appears to be trending toward the top-15 range.
Moving back would be an option in this scenario, as would taking someone like South Carolina’s Javon Kinlaw to replace DeForest Buckner, whom they traded for this pick. If they don’t get the right deal, though, don’t be surprised if Jefferson ends up being their man.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (from TB)*
CJ Henderson | CB | Florida
This is a huge win for the Jags, who move back five spots in return for a promising tight end in O.J. Howard, and still end up with the player they likely would have taken anyway at No. 9 overall.
Henderson has emerged as a clear-cut No. 2 corner in this class behind Okudah, thanks to his combination of size, length and ball skills, and his experience in press-man coverage against top competition in the SEC. He needs to improve as a tackler, but that’s not as important to most teams as what he brings in coverage.
Trading away both Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye within the last year has left a gaping hole at corner in Jacksonville. Filling one of those spots with Henderson would be a fantastic start to this draft, especially after moving back and adding Howard.
15. Cleveland Browns (from DEN)*
Mekhi Becton | OT | Louisville
Another team that moves back and still fills their biggest position of need with a top prospect, Cleveland adds multiple Day 2 picks to bolster the rest of the roster, and still ends up with a blue-chip left tackle.
Becton’s film is among the most entertaining to watch in this entire draft class, as this massive mountain of a man consistently tossed opposing defenders out of the club. As long as the Browns are comfortable with the circumstances surrounding his flagged drug test at the NFL Scouting Combine, this is a huge win for them.
This is still a promising roster on both sides of the ball, but a few pieces are missing. Becton fills the biggest need at a premium position, and they get great value in the process.
16. Arizona Cardinals (from ATL)*
Javon Kinlaw | DL | South Carolina
I’m betting if the Falcons knew they could have stayed here and still landed Kinlaw, they wouldn’t have moved up for Brown. But that’s not how this works, and the Cardinals reap the benefits by landing Kinlaw and adding an extra pick in the process.
Kinlaw was dominant for the Gamecocks against SEC competition, and did the same at the Senior Bowl before be bowed out with a minor injury. At 6-5, 315 pounds, Kinlaw has the size and skills to line up anywhere in any scheme along the defensive line.
Kinlaw’s story of overcoming adversity is harrowing and inspiring, and he brings a competitive mentality to every snap that all 32 teams should want on their defense. He’s a steal outside the top 15, and a huge addition at a position of need for the Cards.
17. Dallas Cowboys
K’Lavon Chaisson | EDGE | LSU
I think the Cowboys would love to move back here, but if they don’t get the right deal, Chaisson would be anything but a consolation prize. Dallas filled their needs along the interior with solid veterans in free agency, but they still need a bookend on the edge to pair with DeMarcus Lawrence.
Chaisson is still just scratching the surface of his potential, developing his pass rush arsenal and learning to maximize his promising physical tools. His combination of length, athleticism and versatility give him limitless upside.
This defense needs help in the secondary, as well, but it’s too early for any of this year’s top safety prospects, and the only corners worth top-20 picks are already off the board. This makes the most sense for Dallas if they have to stick and pick.
18. Miami Dolphins (from PIT)
Cesar Ruiz | OL | Michigan
Offensive tackle is the more popular pick here, but this year’s interior offensive line class is not nearly as deep in the early rounds, and the Dolphins should have plenty of quality options at tackle when their next pick comes up at No. 26 overall.
That won’t be the case when it comes to interior blockers, as Ruiz could easily be gobbled up by multiple teams between this pick and Miami’s next first-rounder. He’s by far the best interior lineman in this year’s class, and well worth taking here to make sure Tagovailoa has a quality anchor at the heart of his line.
At just 20 years old, Ruiz has as much upside as any prospect in this entire draft. He’s athletic and physical, and has the intelligence to give Tagovailoa all he help he needs at the line of scrimmage in terms of identifying blitzes and putting them in the right protections.
19. Las Vegas Raiders (from CHI)
A.J. Terrell | CB | Clemson
After filling their biggest offensive need earlier in the round, the Raiders have to do the same for their defense here. They don’t have a second-round pick, so finding a starting-caliber corner is a must at the spot.
I’m not as high on Terrell as it seems the league is, as I don’t expect him to make it out of the first round despite the fact that he has a Day 2 grade on my board. That said, it’s easy to see why some teams will like him, given his combination of size, length and athleticism.
Terrell is better than he looked in the national game when he got battered by LSU’s dominant offense. He’s got all the physical tools to develop into the No. 1 corner the Raiders need here.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
Justin Herbert | QB | Oregon
I’m sure the Jags have every intention of riding with Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback right now, but if this scenario comes to pass, don’t be surprised if they change their tune.
Herbert is expected to be a top-10 pick, but if he gets by the Dolphins and Chargers, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him tumble a bit. He did improve his game by returning for his senior season, winning the Rose Bowl and going out in style. But I still have enough questions about his game to wonder about his ability to be a Day 1 starter.
Going to Jacksonville would create an interesting dynamic for a team that paid Nick Foles a ton of money only to have Minshew beat him out. Would the Jags be willing to create another quarterback controversy after trading Foles to Chicago?
21. Philadelphia Eagles
Denzel Mims | WR | Baylor
The Eagles would love to come out of this draft with one of the top four wide receivers, but if the price to move up is too high, they’re better off waiting and taking advantage of a deep class of pass-catchers here.
Moving back in this scenario is a possibility, especially considering they traded away their third-round pick in the Darius Slay deal. However, there are plenty of teams that need receivers picking right after them here, so if there’s a receiver they want, they need to take him here.
Mims has a rare combination of size and speed, running in the 4.3s at the NFL Scouting Combine at 6-3 and 215 pounds. That’s the kind of playmaker the Eagles need for Carson Wentz, who was throwing to players even the most die-hard Eagles fans had to look up on Google during games.
22. Minnesota Vikings (from BUF)
Jeff Gladney | CB | TCU
Few position groups were more disappointing in the entire NFL last year than the Vikings’ corners, and with Xavier Rhodes gone and little proven depth in his stead, Minnesota has to come away with a Day 1 starter with either of their first-round picks.
While many teams prefer big corners, Gladney makes up for his lack of ideal size in every other area of his game. He’s physical at the line of scrimmage and at the catch point, and his confidence made him the kind of cover man no receiver wanted to line up across from.
Receiver is also a need after trading away Stefon Diggs, but there are still plenty of receivers on the board, giving them tons of value options when they pick again at No. 25 overall.
23. New England Patriots
Xavier McKinney | S | Alabama
Quarterback is obviously the big question mark here, but I don’t see Bill Belichick spending this pick on a raw prospect like Love, or any other passer left on the board at this point.
No, the Pats need to get back to their roots and rebuild their defense, which is aging fast, particularly on the back end. They don’t have to worry about drafting enough offensive weapons to keep Tom Brady happy anymore, so it’s time to start restocking the defensive cupboard.
McKinney is the perfect defender for today’s NFL. He’s versatile enough to play in the box, single-high, or even in the slot when needed. He’s fast and physical, with the intelligence Belichick demands.
24. New Orleans Saints
Kenneth Murray | LB | Oklahoma
Quarterback is a popular pick here, but similar to their NFC South rivals in Tampa Bay, I don’t see the Saints spending their early draft resources trying to replace their Hall of Fame quarterback instead of helping him win now.
This defense still has playmakers at key spots across the board, but they need a young linebacker who can make plays sideline-to-sideline on all three downs.
Murray is a fiery competitor and a vocal leader, with the smarts and athleticism to make an immediate impact. His presence will be a huge addition to a team that’s still built to go deep into the playoffs behind Drew Brees and a star-studded offense.
25. Minnesota Vikings
Brandon Aiyuk | WR | Arizona State
After trading away Diggs and addressing their biggest need on defense with a corner at No. 22 overall, the Vikings need to use this pick to replace their big-play receiver.
There are tons of pass-catchers worth considering here, but Aiyuk is the most complete of those still available in this scenario. He’s a well-built player with a rock-solid frame, which makes him tough to bring down after the catch. He’s also got enough speed to challenge defenses over the top, and he’s a polished route runner.
Kirk Cousins needs a receiver who can start immediately opposite Adam Thielen, and Aiyuk is ready for that challenge.
26. Miami Dolphins (from HOU)
Josh Jones | OT | Houston
After trading away Laremy Tunsil, the Dolphins are in desperate need of a franchise left tackle to protect their investment in Tagovailoa. In this scenario, the Dolphins luck out by landing a player who can start immediately and give them the upgrade they need.
Jones silenced questions about the level of competition he faced in college with strong week of practice at the Senior Bowl. He’s still got room to grow from a technique standpoint, but he’s got all the tools to quickly become a franchise left tackle.
Don’t count out USC’s Austin Jackson here either, or a running back given that Miami traded away No. 39 overall to move up in this mock for Tua. All of this year’s backs are still on the board, and they could take one here if they think they can get a tackle with the later second-rounder they still have.
27. Indianapolis Colts (from SEA)*
Jordan Love | QB | Utah State
The Colts don’t have a first-round pick thanks to the trade that brought them an All-Pro defensive lineman DeForest Buckner, but they do have a high second-rounder from last year’s draft-day trade with Washington.
If they’re sitting at No. 34 overall and see Love sliding down the board, they could easily pull the trigger at some point and move up to land their quarterback of the future, and getting that important fifth-year option.
One of the biggest wild-cards in this year’s class, Love could go in the top 10, or he could fall out of the first round entirely. Similar to Josh Allen a couple of years back, Love has enticing physical tools but will need time to develop. Sitting behind Philip Rivers for a year in Indy would be an ideal spot for him.
28. Baltimore Ravens
Jonathan Taylor | RB | Wisconsin
Why is the NFL’s top-ranked rushing offense spending a first-round pick on a running back? I know, it sounds crazy. But if the board falls this way, and the Ravens have their pick of the little among this year’s top backs, this wouldn’t surprise me one bit.
Mark Ingram isn’t getting any younger, and when he was banged up at times last year, his absence was painfully evident. Taylor brings a similar running style to the table, with an impressive combination of speed, power and finishing ability.
There are obviously bigger needs for the Ravens on both sides of the ball, but the best teams stay at the top by prioritizing talent and value over reaching for need. Putting this year’s top running back prospect in this offense would be simply unfair.
29. Tennessee Titans
Isaiah Wilson | OT | Georgia
After letting Jack Conklin go in free agency, finding a plug-and-play right tackle became the top priority for Tennessee here. Thankfully, in this scenario, they have plenty of attractive options to choose from.
What gives Wilson the edge over the likes of USC’s Austin Jackson and USC’s Austin Jackson? His experience at right tackle, where Conklin played, and being tested on a weekly basis by top talent in the SEC.
Wilson has been one of my favorite prospects throughout this entire predraft process, and he’s absolutely worthy of first-round consideration. He’s a perfect fit for what the Titans need, and his punishing style of play is exactly what this unit is already known for.
30. Green Bay Packers
Ezra Cleveland | OT | Boise State
Receiver is a need, but with quite a few coming off the board ahead of them, I think the Packers could switch gears and bank on getting better value on Day 2 thanks to this year’s deep class. There are other tackle prospects I’m higher on than Cleveland, but he’s a name that’s likely to come off the board in the first round, no matter what I think.
Cleveland is a tough competitor, and one who enjoyed stealing his opponents’ towels after a pancake block and hanging them in the locker room as trophies. That’s the kind of mentality that gets an offensive line coach to stand on the table for you in the (virtual) draft room.
With Bryan Bulaga gone via free agency, Cleveland gives Green Bay a solid replacement to make sure Aaron Rodgers stays upright for the foreseeable future.
31. San Francisco 49ers
Jaylon Johnson | CB | Utah
The 49ers would love to move off of this pick, but I just don’t see another team near the top of the second round needing to move up for anyone still on the board in this scenario.
If forces to stick and pick, the 49ers have some strong options at multiple positions of need. TCU defensive lineman Ross Blacklock is a solid candidate to replace Buckner, but I think they’re better off investing this pick in a corner to groom alongside Richard Sherman.
Johnson has all the things NFL teams love in a top corner prospect: Size, length, athleticism, ball skills and confidence. He’s a perfect fit, and worthy of this spot.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Queen | LB | LSU
There are so many different directions the defending Super Bowl champs could go here. They have tons of talented running backs still on the board, as well as attractive options at both corner and along the defensive front.
That said, the best blend of value and need comes at linebacker, where the Chiefs need someone who can make splash plays on a regular basis. Queen wasn’t a starter at the beginning of 2019, but by the end of the year, he was arguably the most impactful player on a defense loaded with first-round talents.
The Chiefs can’t really go wrong with this pick, so don’t count out a number of other positions. Queen is just too good of a player and too good of a fit to pass on here.
