As the 2020 NFL Draft is about to get underway, here are five nutty, off-the-wall draft day predictions that just might be right.
CFN in 60 Podcast: 5 Bold NFL Draft Predictions
Pete Fiutak makes his five big calls for the 2020 NFL Draft.
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CFN 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings
from the college perspective …
QB | RB | WR | TE | OT | OG & C
DE | DT | LB | CB | Safeties
Greatest NFL Draft Picks From Each School
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
32 Greatest Draft Picks of All-Time
Full 2020 NFL Draft Order
CFN Top 106 Player Rankings (1st 3 rounds)
How Will Leagues Do in 1st Round?
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC
2021 NFL Draft Top 32 Prospects
This might not be your normal NFL Draft – at least, it won’t be the new normal, with all the bluster and goofy sideshows – but it’s still going to have its share of craziness, misfires, second-guess selections, and bold moves.
What do we know for certain? Most of the picks on Day Three will be a total waste of time, someone will pass on an obvious-in-hindsight Hall of Fame talent in the first round for a bust, and … we’ll all have a whole lot of fun.
So let’s project a little bit of the silliness. Here are five wacky predictions for the 2020 NFL Draft that will absolutely happen. Maybe. petef@Wib872
5. Washington at the 2, Detroit at the 3, New York Giants at the 4. Two of those three will trade out of their picks.
The three worst things in the entire world are 1) the Disney Family Singalong, 2) people who do what I do in sports media who complain in ANY way about being too in demand during this time of year because they’re SO busy getting to do their super-awesome sports jobs during a global pandemic, and 3) mock drafters who project trades.
You can’t make an NFL draft trade happen, and anyone who says they have inside knowledge from a trusted source are almost always being used in some way to put out misinformation.
You have to play it straight if you’re going to project an NFL draft, knowing full well that there will be trades at some point. With that said …
I’m projecting trades in my 2020 NFL Draft.
CFN in 60 Video: 5 Bold 2020 NFL Draft Predictions …
Two of the three teams that pick immediately after Cincinnati takes Joe Burrow will trade out of their spots.
There’s a chance Washington really does see Ohio State DE Chase Young as the best player in the draft – which he is – and wants to stay put, but then it should go haywire.
Either 1) Miami and/or the Chargers will paranoid up and try moving from their respective spots at the 5 and 6 to make sure they get either Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert, or 2) teams like Jacksonville, who need a quarterback, will give away the farm to cut in line to get one of the two star QB prospects.
Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah is one of the four best prospects in the draft, but Detroit could move down out of the 3 and still be in line for a premium pick. And then there are the Giants.
There’s absolutely no need whatsoever to take an offensive tackle in this draft at the fourth overall spot.
Tristan Wirfs, Mekhi Becton, Jedrick Wills, Andrew Thomas, Joshua Jones, Isaiah Wilson, Ezra Cleveland, Austin Jackson … they’re all good.
If the Giants like Clemson LB Isaiah Simmons, great. Stay put, take one of the five best prospects in this thing, and that’s the right selection at the right time. But if they’re going with an offensive tackle and they’re not moving down to do it, they’re not doing their job.
NEXT: 2020 NFL Draft Prediction No. 4
4. The SEC is going to account for more than half of the first round, and will combine with the Big Ten to take over almost half the draft
It’s one of the fun NFL Draft prop bets – the over/under on the SEC having players drafted in the first round is 15.5.
There are 32 picks in the first round.
It would be a historically huge moment for the SEC to dominate the prime real estate like that. It’s normally great at cranking out top picks, and it’s used to spreading its stars across the full seven rounds, but 16 or more?
Last year, the conference had nine players go in the first round, and had ten taken in the top 32 in 2018, but … again, 16 or more?
Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Derrick Brown, Jedrick Wills, Javon Kinlaw, Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, CJ Henderson, K’Lavon Chaisson, Xavier McKinney, Patrick Queen, Trevon Diggs.
That’s 13.
Georgia OT Isaiah Wilson, Bulldog RB D’Andre Swift, and LSU CB Kristian Fulton are all going to at least hang around the top 40 picks or so and be in range to go in the first.
Even if it doesn’t happen, just to come close to the 16 mark is incredible.
And so is owning a quarter of the whole draft.
The SEC accounted for 26% of the entire 2019 NFL Draft, and this year it should be right about that number again with around 65-to-70 players likely to be selected out of the 255. Now combine that with the Big Ten.
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The Big Ten should be relatively quiet after the first hour – only around 5-to-7 players will go in the first round, even with the possibility of Chase Young, Jeff Okudah and Tristan Wirfs going in the top five – but the league will be well represented the rest of the way.
Last year the Big Ten had 40 players drafted and this year should be closer to 45.
The SEC and Big Ten combined for 42% of the 2019 NFL Draft, and this season – assume the guesstimate margin for error around +/- 5 in total draft count for both leagues – should push past 45%.
NEXT: 2020 NFL Draft Prediction No. 3
3. Some teams will go one big way or the other on trading away 2021 draft picks
There’s a school of thought that because of the way this year’s draft is being conducted, there won’t be as many trades.
Whatever. The phones still work.
The trades, though, will be far more strategic and pragmatic for some teams, and we’ll be able to figure out how they’re viewing and projecting the next 6-to-18 months after the fact.
Here’s the one big call every team will have to make, at least in some way: will there be a 2020 college football season?
Every general manager already has some idea of what’s coming in next year’s draft no matter what, but if there’s no season, it’s going to be the toughest talent evaluation job in decades. Remember, Joe Burrow would’ve been a fifth-round pick this year if there wasn’t a 2019 college football season.
It’s not going to be every team, and no one will openly admit that it’s part of the overall strategy, but depending on salary cap situations, expiring contracts, free agent question marks, and all of the other parts to putting together a roster a year in advance, watch out for some more-interesting-than-usual trades.
Here’s the theory.
There’s the if-there’s-no-2020-college-football-season version. Depending on your overall situation, you might be better off loading up now on a ton of 2020 draft picks and trading away your 2021 selections – because it’ll be a total guess after the top 30 or so next year.
The GMs and scouts will have a far better and more true evaluation on the last 150 picks this weekend than they will in next year’s draft if there’s no season. Call it the devils you know draft strategy.
Or, there’s the bet-on-the-season version. There will be at least one team out there looking to buy up as much stock as possible in next year’s draft in the hopes that there is a season – or, if the GM feels like he has a good handle on most of the top 300 prospects.
Instead of taking a bunch of fliers on later picks this year, do you get rid of them all for better positioning and more selections in 2021? No one will trade out of next year’s projected top 20 picks – those will be relatively obvious – but there will be at least one seller out there for the later rounds.
NEXT: 2020 NFL Draft Prediction No. 2
2. Both top running backs will go in the first round
In last year’s version of this, there was a whiff on the idea that no running back would go in the first round.
And then the Raiders took Josh Jacobs at the 24.
However, it wasn’t crazy. The second running back off the board was Miles Sanders to the Eagles at the 53, and the next one didn’t come until the 70th pick when the Rams grabbed Darrell Henderson.
It was the first time since 2016 that at least two running backs weren’t taken in the first round, and even then, Zeke Elliott went fourth overall to Dallas, and the second running back selected was Derrick Henry by the Titans midway through the second.
It’s not that the running backs aren’t talented, but the position has been devalued.
This year, Georgia’s D’Andre Swift and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor are the stars of the running back show, with Ohio State’s JK Dobbins and LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire followed closely behind. Meanwhile, guys like AJ Dillon of Boston College are going to be fantastic value picks after the top 50.
Enough hemming and hawing … here’s the nutty call.
Miami will do some maneuvering with all of its draft capital over the next two years, but it’ll still have three first rounders on Thursday night – they just might be shifted around a bit. One of those picks will be Taylor.
And if the Dolphins take Swift, someone – like Houston, who doesn’t have a first rounder – will trade up with Kansas City to take Taylor at the 32. Or, the Texans will take Swift if Miami grabs JT23.
NEXT: 2020 NFL Draft Prediction No. 1
1. Two teams you don’t think will go quarterback relatively early will go quarterback relatively early
We all know that Trevor Lawrence of Clemson will be the No. 1 overall pick next year if he comes out, and Justin Fields is the likely No. 2.
North Dakota State’s Trey Lance is projected to be the third quarterback off the board, and I’m pushing so hard for Stanford-turned-Mississippi State QB KJ Costello that he owes me a rep fee, but it’s questionable after next year’s top two franchise-makers.
Obviously, all of the attention for weeks has been on the respectively sad quarterback situations at Cincinnati, Miami, LA Chargers and Jacksonville, but there are a whole lot of other teams that need to find another option.
The likely playoff contenders aren’t going to be plan on being within 100 miles of getting Lawrence or Fields, but they’re going to have to think hard about 2021 no matter what happens with 2020.
CFN in 60 Video: 5 Bold 2020 NFL Draft Predictions …
Tom Brady will be 43 next year at this time. Aaron Rodgers will be 37, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger will be 39, and then-42-year-old Drew Brees will be resting his pipes for either Notre Dame football on NBA, or the Monday Night Football booth.
Do Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and/or New Orleans go with a top draft pick as a missing piece of the puzzle to try making a run at the Super Bowl, or do any or all of them pull a 2005 Green Bay – when it took Rodgers when it already had Brett Favre – and groom the future main man?
New England has to at least think about another option to push or take over for Jarrett Stidham, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is going to be 36 when the 2021 season starts, the Raiders are begging anyone to take Derek Carr, and Detroit appears to be willing to part with Matt Stafford.
With the last nutty call in the 2020 NFL Draft …
Between New England, Detroit and the Raiders, one of them will maneuver its way to get either Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert.
Between Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh, one of them will find a way to get Jordan Love to develop for 2021 or 2022.
Happy draft weekend, everyone. We all need and deserve it.
CFN 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings
from the college perspective …
QB | RB | WR | TE | OT | OG & C
DE | DT | LB | CB | Safeties
Greatest NFL Draft Picks From Each School
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
32 Greatest Draft Picks of All-Time
Full 2020 NFL Draft Order
CFN Top 106 Player Rankings (1st 3 rounds)
How Will Leagues Do in 1st Round?
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC
2021 NFL Draft Top 32 Prospects
PHOTO CREDITS: Swift Credit: Mark Zerof; Judge Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran; Brady Credit: Kim Klement; Love Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports
