Why do teams need to avoid taking a quarterback early, much less No. 1 overall? NFL draft history isn’t on the side of teams picking in the top ten.
2020 NFL Draft: Why Cincinnati Should Not Take Joe Burrow No. 1
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from the college perspective …
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It’s not about Joe Burrow … sort of.
He’s a great guy, a great story, and he should be a terrific pro who makes a whole lot of money and has a whole lot of success at the next level. But if the Bengals want to win a Super Bowl, going with Burrow – or any quarterback – is asking to buck a historically brutal trend.
To be fair to Cincinnati – and especially to Burrow – it’s not just about the top pick. Taking any quarterback in the top ten is thumbing your nose at the NFL Draft gods, at least if you want to win a Super Bowl.
So what’s wrong with taking Burrow with the No. 1 overall selection?
Okay, it is about him … sort of.
Here are four reasons – from valid to off-the-rails – why Cincinnati shouldn’t take a quarterback No. 1, starting with …
CFN in 60: Why You Don’t Take A QB Early
Tools
Burrow’s 2019 numbers at LSU were staggering.
76% for 5,671 yards, 60 touchdowns, six interceptions, one SEC Championship, one Heisman, one national title, and the greatest single season overall by any quarterback in the history of college football.
There’s no faking that, and there was nothing fluky about his leadership, his swagger, and the way he turned into the pitch-perfect spokesman for a team, a school, and for his region in Ohio.
Forget that he went from being just okay in 2018 to off-the-charts a year later. Sometimes college quarterbacks figure it out, and sometimes they mature as a player. Their body types kick in, the game slows down to a crawl, and it all comes together at once.
But that was college football.
CFN Podcast: The problem taking a QB early
Was it the scheme? All of a sudden, LSU’s offense went bonkers thanks to the right coaching – Joe Brady parlayed his job as the passing game coordinator to the Carolina Panther offensive coordinator gig – the NFL talent at receiver, and Burrow being the right guy to run it all. However …
There’s one glaring difference between Burrow and almost every quarterback selected No. 1 overall since Terry Baker was picked by the Rams in 1963.
The arm. It’s okay, but it’s a limiting factor to his next-level game, and it’s nowhere near No. 1 overall pick-worthy.
Alex Smith didn’t have a howitzer, but he was a bit of an outlier thanks to his spread offense mobility that Burrow doesn’t have. The guy in that 2005 draft who did bring the heat – Aaron Rodgers – fell to the 24th overall pick, and the 49ers and Jim Harbaugh later replaced Smith with Colin Kaepernick, who fired a major league fastball.
That’s not to say Burrow can’t throw, but this is the No. 1 overall pick we’re talking about.
In the NFL, arm matters.
And then there’s this issue …
NEXT: NFL Draft History, Part 1
NFL Draft History, Part 1
Who did Arizona pass over for Kyler Murray last year? Nick Bosa.
Murray looks promising, but Bosa – okay, it was just one year – looks like he’ll be fitted for a yellow jacket someday.
Who did Cleveland ignore to take Baker Mayfield? Saquon Barkley.
Let’s be fair – Murray and Mayfield are just getting started. They still have plenty of time to be special.
In 2016, the Rams and Eagles worked to get Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, respectively. They also passed on Joey Bosa and Ezekiel Elliott.
Considering Cam Newton is no longer a Carolina Panther, do you think the franchise would’ve rather had Von Miller, who went second overall in 2011?
In 2007, the Raiders selected JaMarcus Russell. They passed on Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas to do it, and in 2002 the Houston Texans grabbed David Carr with the No. 1 overall pick and didn’t take Julius Peppers.
Occasionally the quarterback was absolutely the right call at the 1, even if he didn’t win the franchise a Super Bowl.
Matthew Stafford was a great pick in 2009 over Jason Smith. Andrew Luck was obvious for Indianapolis – and even with the early retirement, correct – over Robert Griffin III and Trent Richardson, and Cincinnati nailed the Carson Palmer pick in 2003 over Charles Rogers.
But in 1990, Indy took Jeff George, and Cortez Kennedy went two picks later.
And that leads to this …
NEXT: Who is Cincinnati passing over to take Joe Burrow?
Who is Cincinnati passing over to take Joe Burrow?
Burrow had better be a superstar, because the Bengals are about to pass up a whole lot of fantastic for a guy who – again – doesn’t quite have the high-end NFL physical tools.
By taking Burrow, Cincinnati will be blowing off an almost perfect defensive end prospect in Chase Young. It’ll be passing on an almost perfect cornerback prospect in Jeff Okudah, and it won’t take an otherworldly hybrid talent in linebacker Isaiah Simmons.
Those three have all the tools in the bag. They’re the prototype, central casting, NFL All-Pro-potential prospects.
And it’s still a buyer’s market out there for quarterbacks.
It might not be a perfect call, but Jameis Winston and Cam Newton are there for the taking. It’ll take almost nothing to get Derek Carr from the Raiders, and the trial balloon was floated out by Detroit that it might think about dealing Stafford for the right price.
If the Bengals really want a quarterback, there will be a good one available with their first pick in the second round. Jacob Eason might be around, Jake Fromm will definitely be on the board, and if the franchise wants to take a shot for the stars, Jalen Hurts would be an interesting call.
Or, even better, trade out of the 1, get more picks, and drop down a bit and take a quarterback and one of the high-end star talents at one of the other positions.
To close out by getting kooky and mystical …
NEXT: NFL Draft History, Part 2
NFL Draft History, Part 2
Peyton Manning, and to a certain extent, Eli Manning.
Since the Dallas Cowboys selected Troy Aikman out of UCLA in 1989, no quarterback selected first overall not named Manning has started and won a Super Bowl for the team that drafted him – and Eli was technically drafted by the Chargers, but the Giants get the cookie for making the move to get him.
(To be TOTALLY nitpicky – Drew Bledsoe both started and won a Super Bowl for New England, but he didn’t do it in the same season. For purposes of the rant, Tom Brady gets the credit for the Lombardi.)
0-for-16.
Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray.
Those are the 16 quarterbacks not named Manning who went No. 1 overall since 1989, and not one of them won a Super Bowl for the team that drafted him.
To get even deeper, out of the last 40 non-Manning quarterbacks selected in the top nine overall since 1989, how many won a Super Bowl for the team that made the pick.
Zero.
CFN Podcast: The problem taking a QB early
Trent Dilfer – who went sixth overall to Tampa Bay in 1994 – won a Super Bowl, but with Baltimore.
Why top nine overall? Because Patrick Mahomes broke a brutal streak last season. He was the first non-Manning quarterback drafted in the top ten overall since 1989 to win a Super Bowl for the team that picked him – Kansas City took him tenth. Expand it to the top ten, and non-Manning quarterbacks taken in the top ten since 1989 are now 1-45 at winning Super Bowls for the teams that drafted them.
That means 45 of the 48 quarterbacks who were taken in the top ten overall over the last 30 years didn’t win a Super Bowl for the teams that drafted them, and it took iconic, Hall of Fame-caliber superstars in the Mannings and Mahomes to do it.
There’s another way to look at all of this, though.
Yeah, 16 other non-Manning quarterbacks went No. 1 overall since 1989. They all had the NFL tools to be worthy of the pick … and they didn’t win a Super Bowl.
Burrow has beaten the odds and proved all the doubters and naysayers wrong before. He’s a great story who’d be an even better one if he could make the Bengals special.
The guy has a knack for making his own history.
CFN 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings
from the college perspective …
QB | RB | WR | TE | OT | OG & C
DE | DT | LB | CB | Safeties
