The 2019 AP Poll powered was released. Here are the topics that matter most in the preseason rankings.
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– CFN Preseason Team Rankings 1-130
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5. Who is, technically, overrated?
The AP types just rated the top teams – so who’s overrated?
At least, according to the CFN Preseason Team Rankings – based on how good the teams are to start the season – the five most overrated teams are …
No. 9 Notre Dame
The Coaches Poll had the Irish up and No. 9, too – that’s a few spots too high considering all the stars the team lost. It’s not going to be a bad team, and they should be able to reload the running game in a hurry without Dexter Williams, but last year’s team caught a slew of big breaks schedule-wise on the way to the CFP. This is a fringe top 15ish team going into the season; top ten is giving it a bit too much love.
– Notre Dame Preview
No. 13 Washington
Yeah, the Dawgs were a bit too far up the charges in the Coaches Poll, too, starting out at 12. There’s just SO much of an overhaul on defense, and there’s still a wee bit of a question mark about whether or not Jacob Eason is amazing as the new starting quarterback. Washington should be a top 15 team as the season goes on – if not top ten – but if you’re doing the preseason rankings based on the world of right now, put the Huskies somewhere around the top 20.
– Washington Preview
No. 21 Iowa State
This is a whole lot of love for an Iowa State team that lost an NFL starting running back in David Montgomery along with top target Hakeem Butler. It’s a very good team under Matt Campbell that should be knocking on the door of the top 25, but 21 is a whole lot of love and respect being given a team that’s worse than the 8-5 club last season.
– Iowa State Preview
No. 24 Nebraska
This is a LOT of gushing for a team with a whole lot of question marks. Is the defense going to be more consistent and physical? Are the receivers in place to hit the home runs? Is the line up to snuff? The answer to all is yes, but Scott Frost still has plenty of work and building to do. It might work out, but this is truly a hype ranking.
– Nebraska Preview
No. 27 Army
The Knights were 29th in the Also Receiving Votes category in the Coaches Poll, and they’re going to be fantastic thanks to a nice and breezy schedule for the option attack to rip through. You like this Army team over Mississippi State? Really? One Miami, TCU, Northwestern? On record, this will easily be a top 25 team. On talent and if it was in a Power Five conference, should it be ahead of Virginia, Oklahoma State or South Carolina? Nah.
– Army Preview
And then there are the …
NEXT: The five most underrated teams …
4. Who is, technically, underrated?
No. 8 Florida
Considering LSU is given the No. 6 spot, this is a few spots too low for a Florida team that has a whole lot to like on both sides of the ball. There are far fewer concerns on the Gators than there are at Ohio State at No. 5, and while it’s a new year and these are new teams, it’s sort of hard to argue for Michigan one spot ahead after 41-15 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl blasting.
– Florida Preview
No. 28 Mississippi State
Where’s the disconnect? The Bulldogs are in the exact same spot in both of the preseason polls, but the offense should be more consistent and dynamic, and the defense doesn’t appear to be a whole lot worse despite the loss of a few cornerstone NFL talents. This is a fringe top 20 team.
– Mississippi State Preview
No. 29 Miami
There might still be concerns with a bit of a flaky quarterback situation now that Tate Martell wasn’t able to grab the starting gig, but on defense alone this is a top 25 team. Considering how much respect is being given to Nebraska, Iowa State and Syracuse, this is too low.
– Miami Preview
CFN Podcast Week 0/Week 1 Predictions
No. 31 TCU
The polls are underestimating just how good this TCU is about to be. The defense is one of the best in the Big 12, and now there’s a little bit of an offense to help the cause. This is at least ten spots too low.
– TCU Preview
No. 35 South Carolina
If you’re going by where the teams will finish, then this might be too high – the schedule is a nightmare. If you’re going by how good the teams are to start the season, the Gamecocks are around 15 spots too low. This is a strong team that would do big things in any other conference with just about any other schedule.
– South Carolina Preview
NEXT: The Clemson vs. Alabama schedule debate
3. Clemson vs. Alabama … the schedules
It’s been one of the offseason discussion points – just how much easier was Clemson’s path to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game than Alabama’s?
No one with a brain is suggesting that Clemson didn’t earn and deserve the blowout win, and it’s wrong to argue that Bama lost like that because of its schedule – it’s not possible to give a team more rest in the fourth quarters of games than what the Tide got – but yeah, there’s a difference between beating Pitt for the ACC title and Georgia for the SEC championship.
So how many AP top 25 teams does Clemson have to face? It gets No. 12 Texas A&M at home, and it goes on the road to play No. 22 Syracuse.
And that’s really, really it.
Not only do the Tigers miss all the preseason top 25 teams over the final nine games, but the regular season finale against South Carolina is the only other game against a team that received a vote.
– 5 (Potentially) Stupid SEC Predictions
Alabama? It faces South Carolina on the road early on, but the road game at Texas A&M is the only battle against an AP preseason top 25 team over the first eight games. Here’s the difference.
Clemson gets to roll through the back half of its season, and Alabama’s finishing kick gets hard with No. 6 LSU, No. 28 Mississippi State on the road, and No. 16 Auburn away from Tuscaloosa.
There will likely be the same problem there was last year in the SEC title game, too. Clemson will most likely get a top 20ish-ranked team from the Coastal in the ACC Championship – assuming the Tigers don’t hit a disaster – and Alabama will likely face a top tenish-ranked – likely closer to top five – Florida or Georgia.
What does it mean? Clemson’s big games are early, and Alabama’s big games are late.
NEXT: The Big Ten’s big world … sort of
2. The Big Ten is getting a whole lot of love, but …
Where’s the really, really big-time team in the national championship mix?
Ohio State is ranked fifth, but there’s a big divide between the Big Ten’s top team and the top three of Clemson, Alabama and Georgia, at least according to the voting.
Even so, no conference got more teams ranked.
– CFN Preseason 1-130 Rankings
Ohio State (5), Michigan (7), Penn State (15), Michigan State (18), Wisconsin (19) and Iowa (20) put six teams in the top 20. That’s almost half of the conference.
It doesn’t stop with Nebraska (24) means the Big Ten accounts for almost a third of the top 24 of the AP rankings. Throw in Northwestern, and the conference gets in eight of the top 30, and Minnesota got a few votes, too.
The SEC has the quality over the quantity with Alabama (2), Georgia (3), LSU (6) and Florida (8) giving the league half of the top eight, and with Texas A&M (12) and Auburn (16) making it six of the top 16 teams.
How impressive is this? The ACC has only two teams – Clemson at 1 and Syracuse at 22 – ranked in the top 25, and had just five teams getting any votes.
The Pac-12 also did well after the top ten, with five teams – Oregon (11), Washington (13), Utah (14), Washington (23) and Stanford (25) – getting into the top 25. Arizona State, Arizona and USC each got at least one vote.
Is Iowa State really the Big 12’s third-best team? It is according to the rankings. The league gets just three teams into the top 25 with Oklahoma (4) and Texas (10) the stars, and with the Cyclones checking in at 21.
The problem, though, is that TCU is the only other team to get any appreciable level of votes (57), with West Virginia (3) and Oklahoma State (3) deep down the charts.
NEXT: Final Overall Thoughts, Observations
1. Final Overall Thoughts, Observations
– Just remember, the AP and USA TODAY Amway Coaches polls are exercises. They’re interesting in terms of perception and a jumping off point, and they’re a great historical marker, but they don’t count – and aren’t allowed to be discussed in the room – in the College Football Playoff decisions.
– So where does the AP poll differ from the Coaches? It doesn’t. The top ten are the exact freaking same, meaning the AP types didn’t really do a whole lot of critical thinking after the Coaches Poll planted their flag first. Making things worse is that all of the same teams are in the top 20 in some way, and the APers have 24 of the 25 teams – swap out Northwestern for Nebraska – ranked by the coaches.
– What do these rankings mean in the real world? The pressure is ALL on Florida in the Week 0 matchup against Miami. The Gators ranked No. 8 in both polls, and Miami gets the dreaded ARV (Also Receiving Votes) tag. If you believe in the idea that disrespect plays a motivating role in college football, here you go.
– Florida vs. Miami Preview, Prediction
– Minnesota continues to be the most overlooked team in the preseason. It got one measly vote in the Coaches Poll and just seven by the AP types. Don’t be stunned if the Gophers turn out to be that big surprise team in the Big Ten West this season.
– 5 (Potentially) Stupid Big Ten Predictions
– Going back to the whole motivational thing, USC got one vote. USC. One. It starts out the season at home against Fresno State, who received eight votes. By the way, USC is a 13.5 point favorite in the opener against the Bulldogs.
– Fresno State vs. USC Preview, Prediction
– Not Receiving Votes … Houston.
– It’s the always fun sports radio question … give the unranked team that’s going to finish the season ranked. Going only with teams that didn’t receive any votes whatsoever, the top best guesses are 1) Houston, 2) Florida State, 3) Tennessee, 4) UCLA.
– Kentucky received 79 votes in the Coaches Poll. It didn’t get a single one from the AP types.
– UAB received three votes. That’s two more than USC and Arizona, and three more than UCLA, Florida State, Tennessee, NC State and Kentucky.
