If there’s one player that draws a lot of intrigue in the upcoming 2019 draft, it’s Talen Horton-Tucker.
Simply put, he doesn’t have the typical appearance of a young, upcoming prospect.
Let’s start with his age. He’s 18 years old and doesn’t turn 19 until this November. He’s actually a year young for a typical NBA one-and-done prospect. This year, he played for an uptempo Iowa State team with the age of a high school senior.
Then, there’s his size. Unfortunately, detailed player measurements aren’t available, but he’s listed with a height of 6’4″ at 238 lbs. with a 7’1″ wingspan.
There’s one player that comes remotely close with those initial measurements, and it’s Josh Okogie.
Okogie is listed at 6’3″ without shoes with an 8’6″ standing reach, 7′ wingspan and comes in at 210 lbs. at the time 2018 NBA Draft Combine.
Lastly, there’s his player position. What position does he actually play? Google searches will lead you to either frontcourt position or the shooting guard slot. The Lakers already have a player with a similar archetype in Josh Hart but at least his shooting was proven so he can be switchable defensively while being a great spot-up shooter. Horton-Tucker isn’t that level of a shooter yet, so the question is, how can Talen Horton-Tucker be a positive on the offensive end of the floor?
Profile
Part of the intrigue about Horton-Tucker is his versatility. He’s not a 3-and-D archetype like Okogie. Okogie has a tremendous motor and plays with great defensive instinct. Horton-Tucker, on the other hand, was placed in a lot of isolation and shot creating situations for Iowa State.
There are certain high-level skills required to be a shot creator; the ball-handling and footwork to get to where you want, the craft to finish around the paint, and the vision and anticipation to make good reads on the fly when the defense adjusts to dribble penetration.
Horton-Tucker, flashes all of those skills.
First, let’s start with the ball-handling flashes.
Keep in mind, this was done against lottery prospect Jarrett Culver and the No. 1 ranked NCAA defensive team in Texas Tech. Horton-Tucker does a great job beating Culver to the steal with a behind-the-back dribble and spin move combination. He changes direction on the help defender with another spin move and draws fouls. While he doesn’t flash advanced level ball-handling with an in-out dribble or crossover combination, he uses footwork to compensate and has the length to finish at the rim.
Then, he flashes some vision.
Horton-Tucker was placed in a shot creating position and makes an advanced read to Lindell Wigginton, a Laker workout player from last season (and one that I am high on as well).
Basic shot creators can usually make the pass to the teammate closest to them, or directly in line with their line of sight. That usually means a drop off pass to a teammate in the dunker’s position or to a corner shooter. This advanced read is all about finding the open man.
He flashes that same vision again, here.
Then, there’s the finishing craft.
He simply has great touch, accentuated by the great wingspan and large hands. He flashes the footwork and finishing craft in transition here.
According to hoop-math, he takes 30.9 percent of his total shot attempts at the rim, converting 70.3 percent of them. That’s an elite conversion rate.
Reasons for Optimism
Iowa State was one of the most fun teams to watch last season. Not only did they play uptempo, but the starting lineup was filled with big guards and shooting. They thrived on versatility.
But, despite the high level of offensive talent, Horton-Tucker was asked to be a shot creator rather than be a finisher. This is where the confusion about his role actually starts. Is he really a player you want creating shots when there are other NBA players that could do it better? Is he really a player that you want running pick and roll when there are high-level point guards and wings that do it better next level? Where does he make sense?
Despite the highlight reel of Horton-Tucker‘s playmaking, there are other skill sets that he flashed that really define him as just a basketball player with an undefined position.
Using guards and wings as “pop-men” in pick and pop situations isn’t highly used. While Horton-Tucker slips this screen, it’s easy to see him as a pick-and-pop wing player.
This shot, if made consistent, unlocks a world of upside for Horton-Tucker.
Here’s a crossover leading to a step-back three.
And one more three-pointer from a handoff series.
The Intrigue
I can imagine Horton-Tucker’s upside going two different directions. Let’s start with the simple one.
He’s a combo forward. In a league where shooting is so important, guys that can shoot while showing offensive versatility as a tertiary option on offense go far. His ability to attack closeouts in advantageous situations offensively would go far as a role player. It’s a nice outcome for a guy that may be considered a third or fourth option at best next to elite offensive talent.
Then, there’s the complex upside projection. Did anyone catch the Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Game 2 of the playoffs?
If not, all of the skills seen show here, are exactly what Horton-Tucker can do, as a slasher, as a passer, and as a finisher.
Now, Horton-Tucker has miles to go as a defender, lots of them. He can flash the occasional defensive play, but the motor and awareness isn’t the most consistent.
Frankly, his advanced numbers reflect more of a guard, than a defensive-oriented forward with guard skills.
Ideally, it would be great to see a 15 percent or higher total rebounding rate and a block rate higher than five percent, but his assist rate, turnover rate, block rate, and steal rate combination are surprisingly very good for such a young player. It’s a reflection of his play.
He’s always under control. It’s rare to see him play sloppy offensively. He sees his teammates before he makes the pass. He sees the defender before committing to a move. He does a great job setting up teammates considering his role for the team and making solid passes with a low turnover rate. The block rate and steal rate is due to his wingspan, but like all NBA rookies, the defense needs to be improved upon. At least he has some major advantages with a tremendous post base, big hands and tremendous wingspan by height.
Where Does He Fit With the Lakers?
It’s true, the Lakers lack shooters. Personally, I think shooters are best found through free agency, where each player’s shooting abilities have been proven at the NBA level. Shooting doesn’t always directly translate from the NCAA level to the NBA level, as shown by Svi Mykhailiuk. Sometimes, it takes players a few years to get adjusted to NBA defenses.
The Lakers, though, are a team full of versatile players. We’ve seen Lonzo Ball play full-court defense while adding the occasional rim-protecting play. Hart switches defensively from power forward to shooting guard. LeBron James has practically played every position on the floor. Brandon Ingram is a small forward, not a shooting guard. Kyle Kuzma is a power forward, not a traditional wing player. Both players started next to James anyway. Yet, I’ve listed the best players returning as Laker players next season and arguably their best lineup.
Horton-Tucker fits in that Hart mold. While he’s not the level of shooter or disciplined player that Hart is, he’s certainly just as capable of a finisher and possibly a higher level playmaker. The Lakers would have even more defensive versatility with two guards capable of defending bigs in the post. In fact, outside of shooting, Horton-Tucker‘s advanced numbers show similarly to Hart‘s senior advanced numbers.
There’s also the upside. Horton-Tucker is almost exactly one year younger than Isaac Bonga. Yet, he played quality competition at the NCAA level and flashed a multitude of offensive skills that may lead to different offensive outcomes with success. He’s certainly more ready for NBA level physicality with his strength.
Frankly, it’s possible Horton-Tucker is being underrated just because of his height alone. He has the wingspan of a top-tier sized power forward. If the standing reach is around 8’6″, he’ll fit fine as a small forward. If his standing reach is 8’9″ or taller, then that may unlock him at power forward or even a small ball center depending on the game situation.
In a weak draft, if a team can’t find an elite skill at a certain position, then it pays off to find a unique skill that other teams may be looking for.
That kind of versatility is hard to find. He would be a great plug-and-play player on this Laker team.
