The Lakers are back in the NBA Draft lottery.
This isn’t the season that Laker fans wanted. Unfortunately, the team fell way short of expectations, and even worse, there isn’t much to be optimistic about in the near future except for the possible use of cap space to acquire talent and the development of the Lakers young core.
However, every year, teams get a free shot of adding talent, and all that’s required is thorough research and proper decision-making.
That free shot happens in the NBA draft.
Ideally, one would think that teams would draft in order of the best player available in descending order. For multiple reasons, that simply isn’t the case.
Here, I’m going to example one way of finding a successful NBA player through the NBA draft.
1. Is the player healthy?
Forget about talent for a second. If talent can’t get to the basketball floor, then the player can’t play, period. Health is also critical for player development. It’s simply too difficult to acquire NBA level skill sets when a player is constantly working on their health.
2. Basic measurements and athletic tools
This is the top 450 players in the world. There’s simply a certain bar of size, skill and athleticism requirements just to make it in the league. There are plenty of guys that have the size, skill, and athletic combination and still don’t make it.
3. What does the player do best?
The answer to this question is critical. For some players, it’s obvious what the player does best.
What did Stephen Curry do out of Davidson? Shoot.
What did Michael Jordan do out of North Carolina? Drive.
Sometimes, the answer isn’t so clear. Brandon Ingram shot over 40 percent behind the arc at Duke. Did that percentage translate to the NBA level? Not yet. Is he an elite slasher at the NBA level? Some would say so, but that didn’t really show as definitively at the NCAA level. So, what did Ingram do best? Adapt. It’s not a typical answer, but Ingram essentially played three different roles in a college season based on just over 30 games. He was a 3-and-D guy, he was a point forward, and later, played power forward in Amile Jefferson’s absence and found success offensively there too.
What has Brandon Ingram done best in the NBA? Adapt. It’s hard to see him as a dynamic slasher or elite 3-point shooter, but it’s very easy to see that he’ll keep improving.
4. How dynamic is that particular skill or skill set?
If a player’s best skill is driving to the hoop, but he can’t change speeds or directions, it’s not particularly dynamic. If a player’s best skill is shooting, but can only hit on average consistency on spot-up situations, it’s not particularly dynamic. The NBA level requires either great dynamism or tremendous efficiency at an important skill to make it.
5. Does the player have complementary skill sets?
Basically, does the player have a counter? Does he have three-point range to complement his post game when defenses deny position? Can he pass out of pressure situations when he’s facing double teams off-the-dribble? Can he make timely reads on defensive help outside of being an individual man-defender? Can he rebound or force turnovers to help compensate for a lack of another skill set defensively?
6. What can a player do to keep themselves in the game?
This is a tough question. Not every player plays their best game on a night-to-night basis. The NBA is just too competitive and opponents will take something away. When that happens, how will the player respond? Can they shift their focus away from scoring on a bad shooting night and place it on rebounding or defensive effort? Can a player come in on a bad shooting night and change the tempo of the game overall?
7. How good is his character and work ethic?
This has been of increasing importance in the draft. Recent drafts have simply become more deep with talent and it’s more difficult to find separation between guys. This is one good way of finding that separation. Does the guy have positive vibes? Is he encouraging? Does he work on his game so he can stay in the league? There are highly talented guys that got by on talent and flame out. Other guys came in with limited skill sets and had long term NBA careers. Having a guy with good work ethic also helps set the tone for a team’s culture.
In the Lakers case, this is vital, and fortunately, all of the young Laker players, including the ones that have gotten away, have all shown this work ethic and positive approach to the game.
8. How easy is it to improve on specific skills that need improvement?
Throughout my time evaluating the draft, certain skills are easier to acquire than others. Shooting is still the easiest to acquire. Most of the league gets it and a few guys don’t. Did anyone really see Boogie Cousins or Brook Lopez turning into league average three-point shooters? Nope.
Other skills aren’t so easy to obtain. While Curry is insane off the dribble, it’s not exactly easy to see Lonzo Ball looking that dynamic with his handle. You can’t exactly turn Derek Fisher into Allen Iverson levels of ball-handling. Some guys just have a knack for it.
9. What is the player’s best archetype for success?
The way Ball has played as pure point guard is different than how he played at UCLA. Ball and Aaron Holiday split time at point guard and it was Ball coming off of screens and spotting up with great off-ball action. The Lakers don’t play him that way, nowhere near the frequency, and that’s evident in his shooting percentages.
Fortunately, Ball had a lot of complementary skills that kept him on the floor, especially with defense and his ability to push pace with his passing. Not only did that make him a net positive impact player on the floor, but it’s also a reflection of how much remaining upside he has with the skills he needs to work on.
10. Does the player fit the team’s culture?
This question is difficult to answer. We don’t really get a strong feel for how good front offices are or how well they develop players. Some teams draft well and have great player development so young players have immense leaps in skill at an earlier age. Other guys take longer.
But, since 2013, the Lakers have been good with player development. Even with guys that were traded or let go to other teams showed a solid positive arc in player development. Guys like Thomas Bryant, Ivica Zubac, D’Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson, and Larry Nance Jr. have all found ways to be positive contributors on the floor and improve their basketball skills.
If a player doesn’t necessarily fit a team’s culture, it may not be as easy to reveal a player’s upside. Sometimes, it just takes too long and a change of scenery might be a good thing.
