2019 Mountain West Football Win Totals
What is your best bet?
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Time to talk win totals
Until we the football season gets here for college football this is what we are left with: a bunch of educated guessing. The latest win totals from FanDuel are out and they include a whole bunch of Mountain West teams.
In this exercise we will rank the win total bets with our confidence level alongside taking the over or under. These are for regular season games only and if there is a whole number you must choose higher or lower and those can be the tricky ones to pick.
The order of this list is going to be organized from least confident to most confident.
12. Boise State: 10 (Over -108, Under -108)
Under – The Broncos very well could win more than 10 regular season games and going less than double-digits seems risky. However, if you are inclined to take the over, remember that the last time Boise State won 11 regular season games was in 2014 which also saw them go to the Fiesta Bowl.
If taking the under, Boise State has won fewer than 10 regular season game just twice since 2013.
11. Wyoming: 5.5 (Over +115, Under -135)
Over – This may be an odd spot for the Cowboys. They very likely will go to a bowl game but the offense has so many questions marks with replacing Nico Evans at running back, QB Sean Chambers didn’t show a much through the air, and there is a new defensive coordinator.
10. San Diego State: 8 (Over +120, Under -140)
Under – With last year taking a dip in what most expected for San Diego State, one has to wonder if that will continue in 2019. Injuries were an issue last year but this next year the Aztecs have a new quarterback in Ryan Agnew and last year’s play was not all that inspiring, and the offense is getting a tweak.
Eight seems like the best number to predict but since that is off hte table taking the under seems just as tough as the over, so with the variables taking the under but not confident.
9. Utah State: 7 (Over -114, Under -102)
Over – Utah State has all the hype from last year carrying over despite getting a new head coach, a brand new starting five on the offensive front, and the need for new wide receivers. The over seems like a safe bet at eight games but it could take a bit for this team to gel together.
8. Nevada: 6.5 (Over +125, Under -145)
Over – The Wolf Pack might be taking that next step under Jay Norvell as its head coach. They do have one of the best running backs in the league in Toa Taua but they are starting a new quarterback and replacing solid defenders from last year. Getting seven regular season wins would mark just the third time since 2014 that Nevada reached that goal.
7. Colorado State: 3.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Over – Honestly, not sure what is going on with this line which is why it is in the middle since the Rams have questions of their own. It starts with the quarterback situation since Collin Hill has had a pair of ACL tears and should be fully healthy and if he is as good as advertised then they will blow past this win total. However, the defense is still very much a work in progress.
6. UNLV: 4 (Over +165, Under -195)
Over – This one seems ridicously low but just like Colorado State, injuries and loss of talent play a concern over how good the Rebels coudl be. It all starts and ends with quarterback Armani Rogers. If he is healthy than the Rebels are making a bowl game this year.
5. San Jose State: 2.5 (Over -155, Under +130)
Under – This could be even higher in the more confidence section but sometimes teams can stumble into an extra win or so with decent talent. The record that San Jose State gets in 2019 might nor reflect their improvement, but the problem is that the rest of the league is getting better as well.
4. Hawaii: 5.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Over – Playing 13 regular season games help give Hawaii a boost in their win total, plus the offense should be really good in the second year of the run-n-shoot offense that Nick Rolovich is putting together. The running game and defense are of some concern but the offense should once again lead this team to bowl eligibility.
3. Fresno State: 8 (Over +115, Under -135)
Over – Even with the replaceements that the Fresno State Bulldogs have, they should be just fine. What does help is that its schedule is managable by missing Boise State but they do have to play an improved Air Force and contender Utah State in cross-division games. There should be enough talent on this team to get to at least nine wins, and possibly a pair of wins of Power 5 programs to start the year.
2. Air Force: 6.5 (Over -165, Under +140)
Over – Air Force missing a bowl game for the third-straigh year. They did miss the postseason four consective years from 2003-06 but since 1982 that is the only time Air Force has missed the bowl season three or more years.
Donald Hammond III is a stud at quarterback and will be a break out star within this conference. Army is overrated with its soft schedule and overall its out of league slate are winnable games against Navy, Colgate and Colorado.
1. New Mexico: 5 (Over +155, Under -185)
Under – This is an absolute steal of a deal. There is basically no chance that hte Lobos will get to six wins and become bowl eligible. This is the one time a whole number for win totals is an easy pick. New Mexico is replacing both offensive and defensive coordiantors and tweaking its offense once again.
