2019 Mountain West Football Championship Game Roundtable
Our staff breaks down the championship game.
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The burning questions are answered.
The Mountain West title game is this weekend and with just the one game we had our staff members answer a set of questions. Everyone will introduce themselves first and answer the questions.
Introduction: Hi my name is Raja and I am an Army Vet and Boise State graduate. While I do sincerely attempt to give honest opinions on the football teams of the Mountain West, I am a Boise State graduate and earned the right to be a cocky and arrogant fan. And yes it is fantastic to once again be hosting the Mountain West Championship game, which I will of course be attending.
My name is Brandon B and I write for the Nevada Wolf Pack for both football and basketball . I am from Florida and went to the University of Florida but before I moved to Florida, I spent several years out west and was a big fan of the old Western Athletic Conference and I am forever a fan of west coast football and especially the Mountain West.
Sean O’Toole
My name is Sean O’Toole and I contribute to the MWC Wire by writing about the Air Force football team. In full transparency, I have no military, academic or athletic ties to the USAFA or any team in the Conference as I am a Penn State grad. I have however been a fan and followed the Falcons since back into the Fisher DeBerry era, and from there developed an affinity for the MWC as a whole.
I’m Erwin Mendoza, and I cover San Diego State for MW Wire. I graduated from SDSU around the same time as Kawhi Leonard. I also take my UNLV, San Jose State, and Craig Thompson slander slightly seriously.
I’m Preston Baker, I cover Hawaii for MW Wire. I have no true connection to Hawaii or the Mountain West conference as a whole. I’m a high school student in Michigan, and look for any sports writing related gigs I can find. I was a big Colt Brennan fan as a little kid, but that’s about the extent of my connection to the team.
Hi, my name is Ted McGovern. I’m a San Diego State grad and #aztecforlife. I cover SDSU football, basketball, and key sports highlights. I rowed for the SDSU Crew team as an undergrad. I love watching sports; making fun of BYU, and getting Boise State die-hards like Raja to pour powerade all over themselves. It’s not that I think Craig Thompson is the “antichrist” but he is not “living his best life” and we’re all suffering through watching more sports on sketchy media like Stadium for it. As the Mountain West programs get stronger our visibility needs to improve.
I am Jeremy Mauss and am the managing editor for the site and have been covering the Mountain West for just over a decade back when the league looked quite different in terms of the team makeup. Officially a University of Utah guy when I started this thing yet despite that I am called a homer for probably every league in the team, so there is that.
My name is Erik and I cover Boise State. I have lived in the Midwest for the vast majority of my life but spent a little time in the west coast. I have been a fan of Boise State since the tail end of the Dan Hawkins era.
I’m Logan Jones, Utah State football and hoops contributor for MW Wire. I’ve been covering Aggie football in some capacity since my freshman year back in 2013 — so just after the magical 2012 season but just in time for the Kent Myers experience. Originally from Oregon, I enjoy staying relatively neutral on most MW squabbles while anxiously waiting for Oregon State to stop being the Utah State of the Pac-12. Matt Wells did nothing wrong.
I’m Josh Fredlund, Colorado State football and basketball contributor for MW Wire. I’ve been covering Colorado State since mid-2016. Graduated from Colorado State and know when to pick my battles when it comes to this team, except whenever I can antagonize Raj (Boise is not a state).
1. Are you surprised that Boise State or Hawaii are in the title game?
Hawaii surprised me this season. The schedule was tough and I saw the Warriors winning between 5 and 7 games and fighting for bowl eligibility. I was wrong and Coach Rolovich has done a great job getting his team back on track. They aren’t ‘there’ yet but definitely a team on the rise. Boise State is no surprise and as a Bronco, I was offended that some media folks had the audacity to vote for Utah State in the preseason poll to win the Mountain Division.
I am not surprised that Boise State is in the title game because they have shown themselves to be the best team in the conference. A few hiccups here and there such as the BYU loss this season but despite that, the Broncos being in the championship game is not a surprise to me.
Hawaii being in the championship game is a surprise to me because I had them as at least third in the conference behind Fresno State and San Diego State. Fresno State collapsed and Hawaii defeated San Diego State to win the West division and now here we are Hawaii in the championship game. Who knew?
Sean O’Toole
I am not surprised to see Boise State in the title game, they are the class of the conference and epitomize consistency dating back to the Hawkins era. I am however a little surprised to see Hawai’i opposite the Broncos, but not shocked. After the down years that had plagued the Bow’s until the Rolo era, its good to see them resurface as a contender.
Hawaii in the title game just because San Diego State had this lined up until they stopped scoring. Boise State had an easier path to get to the title game.
I’d honestly be more surprised if Boise State wasn’t in the title game. They’ve shown again and again that they’re the predator, not the prey in the conference. Hawaii on the other hand is a surprise. A new coach, uncertainty on the starting quarterback and general fuzziness about the team makes this conference championship appearance no easy feat. This should be a good stepping stone for the Warriors, even if they can’t pull through.
I’m not surprised by the matchup but very disappointed my Aztecs didn’t beat Hawaii for a chance to spank Boise State on the blue turf just like we did at last matchup. Yet in full disclosure: I’m very impressed with what Nick Rolovich has done at Hawaii, and considering how poorly our offense performed SDSU didn’t deserve to beat Hawaii. Rolovich is an odd duck, but I like him and a formidable Hawaii team makes the Mountain West stronger and more interesting
I’m not much surprised by Boise State since, in preseason, I’d projected them to roll through conference play undefeated. Hawaii, on the other hand, felt impossible to predict and, even in spite of winning the West for the first time, remained impossible as the season wore on. If the passing game wasn’t throwing for four touchdowns a week, it was turning it over four times instead, but I give them credit for overcoming those swings and keeping it together when things mattered most.
It should never be shocked when Boise State is in the Mountain West title game. They are appearing in its third-straight title game and are usually frontrunner each year.
As for Hawaii, it is fairly surprising they are in the championship game. We knew the offense would be better and a tough challenge but they were more of a dark horse but be behind San Diego State and Fresno State.
Nobody is surprised to see Boise State in this game, though I’m sure Air Force diehards sensed a crack in the armor early in the year. The Broncos are complete team and handled their business as usual. Hawaii isn’t surprising to me either, being the best offense in its division with enough firepower to overcome a leaky defense and surpass pretenders Fresno and SDSU.
I’m not surprise Boise is in the title game, I am surprise Hawaii is. Hawaii has been an improved squad since Rolovich became the head coach, but I thought they would be a year away from contending for the West Division. Hawaii’s offense has been impressive from the start, so it’s nice to see their defense catch up a little bit.
I’m fairly surprised that Hawaii has made it. They have been on the rise had the offense to complete, but their defense could never stop anyone. This year their defense has found a way to limit opponents and come up with a big play when it is needed. As for Boise State, I had them picked to win the Mountain Division and conference before the season had started.
2. How much will the Rainbow Warriors traveling from the Islands to the cold mountains of Idaho in December play a role?
It will play a role for sure. Not only is Boise State getting an extra day to prepare but traveling from the Islands to the mainland is not a simple trip. Boise had a cold snowy day game last week in Fort Collins and have been playing in cold temperature for about a month now. There is no way for Hawaii to simulate this. It’s not the end all, but it will play a role.
I don’t think the cold will be much of a factor for Hawaii on Saturday. Remember Hawaii opened up Mountain West conference play against Nevada in Reno and the game time temperatures were cold and rainy. In that game Hawaii took it to the Wolf Pack 54-3. Different type of opponent the Rainbow Warriors are facing in Boise State but I do not think the cold weather will faze Hawaii.
Sean O’Toole
Weather will be an issue, but not nearly the issue that Curtis Weaver and company are on defense. Hawai’i is a good team, and particularly talented at receiver. But even at that, Boise state simply has too many horses. This game could be played in a dessert or the peak of Mauna Kea, and I don’t think it would have the impact that the depth of talent difference favoring Boise State will.
The blue turf flusters everyone in December, and I have a hard time believing Hawaii will overcome this.
How much will the Rainbow Warriors traveling from the Islands to the cold mountains of Idaho in December play a role?
The weather could play a role in the game for Hawaii. They haven’t played a true cold weather game, with their coldest game probably being a November 16th matchup at UNLV.
The cold Boise weather could be an impact, but I predict it won’t be that cold!. The real question: will it rain? Hawaii can offset weather with next-generation thermal gear. The biggest factor will be how closely the blueness of the turf matches Boise State’s uniforms! Will Boise State dare attempt to camouflage themselves yet again, or was Hawaii smart enough to “negotiate” contrasting orange uniforms for visibility?
What I’m more interested in is whether it rains in Boise on Saturday. As I write this on Tuesday afternoon, the latest National Weather Service forecast projects a 50% chance of rain and I think that could have an effect on how much Nick Rolovich is willing to throw the ball. We’ve seen teams march into the cold before and win, like 2016 San Diego State and 2018 Fresno State, but if the elements dictate how the game unfolds, then things could get interesting.
The traveling part is overrated a bit since they do it all year long. I think Boise State playing Friday afternoon and Hawaii being the road team and playing Saturday night is an issue since it is a long travel day from Honolulu to Boise. The cold is more of an issue but it will be only sort of cold with the weather expected to be in the mid-40s and a decent amount of rain.
Travel and weather is probably less of a factor for good teams than we think, but the cold could impact Hawaii’s ability to produce explosive plays through the air. McDonald and his receiving corps cannot afford to clam up and play ultra-conservative, as the Warriors defense isn’t built to survive a low-scoring affair.
The cold won’t be that big of an impact for Hawaii because they have cold weather gear that can help with that. The precipitation on the other hand will be a different story. Hawaii’s spread passing game won’t be able to run that well if the quarterback can’t throw the ball.
I like to say none simply because I said that the humidity wouldn’t affect the Broncos when they played in Florida. Cold is a different beast though. In the heat you can still feel you fingers and hits don’t hurt a little more, so I do think it’s going to bother the Warriors.
3. What is the biggest matchup to watch?
Hawaii’s offensive line versus Boise State’s defensive line. The Warriors have an extremely good offensive line and it has kept their quarterbacks upright most of the year. They did a pretty good job earlier this year but can they once again keep Curtis Weaver and the rest of the Broncos out of the Hawaii backfield. If they can’t it will be a long miserable day for Hawaii.
To repeat what Raj said about the biggest matchup to watch it is going to be Hawaii’s offensive line versus Boise State’s defensive line.Can Hawaii’s offensive line contain Boise State’s defensive line and allow the Rainbow Warriors offensive to chug along smoothly?
Sean O’Toole
Cole McDonald vs. Jeff Schmeddings scheme. Cole McDonald is no stranger to turning the ball over (I don’t see an advantage to playing Chevan Cordiero beyond a handful of scramble yards) and I would expect the Boise DC to try and make McDonald cough up the ball a few times. Scheme is one thing, but throw in the players the Broncos have to execute it and it could be a tough sledding.
Cole McDonald vs. Boise State defense.
McDonald put Hawaii back on the map of college football and it’s good to see Hawaii be competitive. Boise State’s defense has been suspect of late giving up 300+ yards of offense. In their previous matchup the Boise St defense gave up 325 yards of passing offense and 3 touchdowns. It’s one to see if McDonald can exploit this Boise St defense, and the other piece is if McDonald will put up enough points to overcome Hawaii’s liabilities.
The Hawaii offense’s consistency against the Bronco secondary. If the Bows can consistently get open and keep the Bronco secondary on their heels with a good pass/run combo then they might have a chance to shock people.
Hawaii’s O-line managed to hold off San Diego State’s top-six-in-the-nation defense. I don’t think this is going to be the big matchup. I think Hawaii will be able to Manage Boise’s defense, period. Hawaii’s receivers versus Boise State’s secondary is going to be the true matchup. Can Boise State subvert the air assault? Can they stop set plays? Hawaii’s O-line will be able to buy McDonald time to make quality deployments, but what happens on the other end will be the difference-maker.
Hawaii’s offensive line has been awesome all year long, so I’m very interested to see whether they get the better of a very talented Boise State front seven again. The Broncos had just two tackles for loss and zero sacks in the first matchup despite finishing the regular season 30th among FBS defenses with a 7.7% sack rate, 29th among FBS defenses in Stuff Rate (percentage of plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage), 4th in Power Success Rate (short yardage situations), and so on. If the weather forces the Warriors to lean on its running game, it’s worth keeping in mind that they had the single-best performance of any Boise State opponent this year, averaging six yards per carry, but probably didn’t do that enough early since Cole McDonald’s slow start doomed them instead.
The biggest matchup that will have an impact are two. Yes, that is cheating but I am going with two. Hawaii’s wide receivers against the Boise State secondary. The Warriors wide out unit goes four deep with a ton of talent and at least one will breakthrough for a big game against the Broncos secondary.
The other matchup is the Hawaii offensive line vs. Curtis Weaver. In the first matchup the Warriors offensive line did not allow a sack but it is still something to watch for as Weaver or another Broncos defender can get to the quarterback.
Curtis Weaver is the best player in the conference, and he’ll be looking to poke holes in a really good OL to get at McDonald all night. Hawaii’s receivers are talented enough to bust loose downfield against BSU’s secondary if given the time, but if Weaver is bringing the heat it might not matter. Weaver versus Hawaii’s pass protection will be the largest deciding factor of this game.
Hawaii’s O-Line vs Boise’s D-Line will be the biggest matchup to watch. If Hawaii can keep either Cole McDonald or Chevan Cordeiro clean, they can be a dangerous team. If Curtis Weaver and the other Broncos get going, it’s going to be a long day for the Warriors.
Curtis Weaver against whoever Hawaii tries to stop him with. Weaver has dominated all year and it will be interesting to see if how Hawaii tries to execute their offense while keeping him out of their backfield
4. Hawaii can win if…
Take advantage of mistakes. If the Broncos turn the ball over or have special teams miscues, the Warriors have to take advantage and be aggressive with their passing attack. If they can play mistake free ball and move the ball through the air, they may be able to escape with the upset.
Hawaii can win if they play mistake free football meaning no silly penalties and no turnovers. And scoring touchdowns not field goals against Boise State because field goals will not beat the Broncos.
Sean O’Toole
Their defense is able to keep the Boise playmakers at bay and Cole McDonald has the unicorn of a game-stat stuffer type of performance without the turnovers.
If they clean up the mistakes on offense, and get more 3-and outs, they have an outside chance of winning this game.
They score more points than the other team. No seriously, it all comes down to controlling the game and not letting the score get away from them. It’ll be tough going into the cold, playing on the blue, but the Bows could pull through.
Hawaii can win if they pass effectively, force Boise State turnovers, and if the temperature remains above 43 degrees fahrenheit and it does not rain.
Hawaii can win if whoever ends up starting at quarterback gets off to a hot start and they can avoid unnecessary penalties. McDonald was only 12-of-23 in the first half during their last time on the blue and they had multiple false starts and personal fouls, while Boise State fired on all cylinders to seize the advantage against a shaky Hawaii defense, putting the game out of reach fairly early. Eliminating the mistakes on all fronts will give them a chance to hang around.
They need to be perfect. The offense needs to be more efficient than last time which barely completed 50 percent of its passes. Get that number to 60 percent, at least, and the Warriors have a shot. The running game has been on the uptick for Hawaii and getting that going to mix in with the passing game would keep the Broncos defense honest. Also, at most there can be only one interception by whatever quarterback Nick Rolovich
Hawaii can win in a shootout but the defense has to make some plays. They allowed five passing touchdowns last time and by three different quarterbacks. The Warriors will need make some stops because for how good the Hawaii offense can be it is not going to score on every drive.
Hawaii can win if McDonald plays his best football. Defensively the Warriors are going to give up some points, so Hawaii’s best shot is turning this into a shootout and making explosive plays count. That includes timely runs from a resurgent ground game that could keep BSU’s talented LBs honest. As always, this is contingent on taking care of the football and not allowing Boise easy opportunities on a short field.
Basically a repeat of question 3. If Hawaii can keep the QB clean, they have a chance.
They capitalize on their big plays with points. They had big plays in the first matchup but still ended up stalling out before the could get in the end zone
5. Boise State can win if…
Press the advantage early on. Boise State has to make this a grind out affair on both sides of the ball and force their will on the Warriors. Boise State is the better team and they are at home so they have to play smart and take their shots and grind out a home a victory.
The Broncos win by leaning in on their rushing attack and keeping Hawaii’s offense off the field. Run the ball and slow down the game and bleed clock and on defense clamping down on Hawaii’s wide receivers.
Sean O’Toole
Stick to what has gotten them here. If they just play their game, they have a personnel advantage at nearly every position on the field. And its fairly significant in some areas. A physical display of the Broncos game is fair to be expected.
Contain Cole McDonald and capitalize on mistakes. Their defense can be suspect, but the Boise State offense is potent enough to repeat a 50+ point performance.
They do what they’ve done all season. They can’t be looking past this game, as Hawaii isn’t a pushover. But they definitely have the ability to shoot out early, and keep the lead.
Boise State can win if they keep the ball out of Hawaii’s hands for 35 minutes.
Boise State can win if they win the turnover battle. They did that handily the first time around, of course, and while Hawaii has mostly cleaned that up down the stretch, they’re still prone to bad decisions here and there (most recently with Chevan Cordeiro’s two early interceptions against UNLV). The offense will also need to be prepared, though, since the Warriors have created multiple turnovers in four of their last six games.
Replicate the prior game? The Broncos exploited a weak Hawaii secondary for those five touchdowns. Assuming Jaylen Henderson starts it will be the first time he has seen a team twice as he saw action the last time the two played. George Holani and the running game need to have a better outcome to mix things up on offense.
The defense needs to pressure the quarterback. That unit had zero sacks and no quarterback pressures. Creating a few picks is the easiest way for Boise State to win.
Boise can win if they can pounce early and force Hawaii into making risky decisions with the football. BSU has no problems pounding the rock and protecting a lead once the game is in hand. If the Broncos lead by a healthy margin at halftime, McDonald is as likely to toss interceptions as he is to lead a massive comeback.
Boise just needs to play their game and try not to get too cute to walk away with the MW Championship
They execute how they are capable. They have had a lot of games that were closer than they should have been simply because one phase of their game simply could not get it together. If they hit on all cylinders, this will be a one sided game.
6. Score prediction
Broncos, big. I do not think the Warriors have much of a chance and Vegas and computers are not too high on them. Neither am I. Hawaii simply doesn’t have the talent from top to bottom to match Boise on a neutral field without the elements to deal with. In the cold mountains of Idaho, Boise State will look to win this game physically and capture their 2nd MWC Championship in 3 years. Boise State 48, Hawaii 27
Boise State 31 Hawaii 24
Sean O’Toole
Boise State 33 – Hawai’i 17
55- 49 Boise State over Hawaii
Hawaii 35, Boise State 31. That’s right: an upset.
Hawaii has shown it can win a game in multiple ways, piling up points against San Jose State and Army and leaning on defense against San Diego State and UNLV, but that also means you never really know which Warriors team will show up on any given Saturday. If the pendulum swings the right way, they could absolutely steal this one by outscoring the Broncos, but trusting them to put it all together for 60 minutes is a bridge too far for me. Boise State will win, 45-34, and hope Memphis has stumbled at the finish line by game’s end.
Boise State 38, Hawaii 30
Boise State 42, Hawaii 24
Boise 54 – 37 Hawaii
Boise State 56, Hawaii 26
