Welcome to our pre-training camp list of 2019 fantasy football sleepers and undervalued players. We will continue to update this list of preferred targets for the players who are falling through the cracks (undervalued) and those with a chance to outperform expectations (sleepers). We’ll also toss in a handful of total fliers (deep sleepers) for gamers to consider.
Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and are PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise.
Quarterbacks
Mitchell Trubisky | Chicago Bears | ADP: 14:01 | Sleeper
Year 2 in Matt Nagy’s offense will come much easier to the third-year pro. The offense can be complex and takes time to digest; Trubisky flashed signs of “getting it” in 2018, and his receiving corps was upgraded in the NFL draft with the addition of Riley Ridley. Chicago still boasts a strong offensive line and improved the backfield in the draft, as well. Second-year receiver Anthony Miller could be poised for a breakout year, and Allen Robinson is on track to improve in his second season under Nagy. And don’t discredit the chunk gains by Tarik Cohen.
Trubisky finished QB15 in 2018 and is being ignored by gamers more comfortable choosing established names. The pool of quarterbacks looks deep, once again, but gamers need to realize someone is going to fall off of the map when we have so many guys north of 35 being drafted ahead of him. At any rate, consistency must improve for Trubisky to ascend into the QB1 conversation, and his floor needs to be elevated to show less of a drop-off from his highs. Going for 135 yards and a TD one week, followed by 355-3-0 the next and then 165-1-2 isn’t going to cut it. Six-TD weeks are nice and all, but gamers should want more showings of 280-3-0 instead.
Derek Carr | Oakland Raiders | ADP: 13:12 | Undervalued
Look, it may take time to build chemistry with his new receiving corps, but even in a down year, Carr was good for 4,049 yards, 20 total TDs and only 10 picks. He went 10 straight appearances without an interception. The big plays weren’t there. Oakland majorly improved its offensive line, and the cast of pass-catchers was completely revamped. Most notably, Antonio Brown is in the mix. Tyrell Williams joins him as an up-and-comer, while speed in J.J. Nelson, and the chain-moving traits of Ryan Grant cannot be ignored. Tight end Darren Waller brings an underrated skill set to replace the older Jared Cook. Rookie Josh Jacobs should provide backfield stability.
Carr doesn’t need to be all that much better to get into the weekly starting conversation. He’s no worse than a matchup play, and gamers shouldn’t be drafting him behind Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kyler Murray and Tom Brady, for example. Carr being QB22 in ADP is insane after he finished QB18 last year in fantasy points and was gifted wholesale upgrades in the offseason.
Jameis Winston | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 10:03 | Undervalued
Undervalued by the slimmest of margins, Winston should be much more stable in 2019. He won’t have Ryan Fitzpatrick lurking over his shoulder, and vertical-minded head coach Bruce Arians will get the most out of Winston’s skills. There’s also the contract year factor to consider. This offense could chuck it nearly 700 times, so there will be some bad with the good, but the volume might be off the charts. Having Mike Evans and the blossoming Chris Godwin could result in a pair of 1,000-yard, 10-TD guys. Lofty, but doable. Toss in one of the best young TEs in the game and former first-round pick Breshad Perriman’s speed, and the losses of Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson doesn’t seem to matter.
Winston is currently going as QB13, which is fair on the surface. That’s what he is — a fringe QB1. However, a deeper dive suggests he could be several spots behind his potential. Ahead of him, gamers will find Carson Wentz (major health concerns), Cam Newton (bum throwing shoulder), Kyler Murray (still a rookie), Jared Goff (debatable but understandable) and Russell Wilson (suspect cast of WRs) … the point being, Winston realistically could be the eight quarterback off of the board without much of an argument.
Running backs
Marlon Mack | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 3:05 | Sleeper
What a difference a year can make … the Colts majorly upgraded the offensive line in the 2018 draft, and it paid immediate dividends. Mack saw his yards-per-carry average increase by almost a full yard to a healthy 4.7 per pop, and he plowed into the end zone nine times on the ground, adding one via his 17 grabs. He won’t be much of a factor in the passing game, suggesting greater worth in non-PPR. His touchdown prowess, in combination with an expected increase in touches, should push the third-year back into the middle of the No. 1 running backs.
Indy’s passing game is as strong as any team’s, which also helps open lanes for Mack. The South Florida product scored five times over the final four regular-season contests, and it stretches to six if you include the first round of the playoffs. He ran for at least 119 yards in three of those outings. While it seems odd to call a guy going in Round 3 a sleeper, Mack legitimately has top-five RB potential, especially in standard scoring.
Darrell Henderson | Los Angeles Rams | ADP: 7:06 | Sleeper
Toddy Gurley’s arthritic knee could make Henderson a fantasy star in 2019. Not to detract from Gurley’s elite skill set, but this system can make just about anyone look like a star. C.J. Anderson was a fantasy savior in 2018’s home stretch, and Henderson is a more talented player. Plus, he adds a dynamic element to the passing game, even if Gurley is on the field.
It’s safe to presume Gurley’s workload will be restricted, and he may be forced to see his touches reduced in the passing attack. Henderson’s draft stock will rise throughout the summer months. Draft him as a no-brainer handcuff, and he’s an RB3 in his own right, mostly due to PPR flex playability.
Royce Freeman | Denver Broncos | ADP: 8:09 | Sleeper
This one isn’t necessarily the strongest endorsement, so be judicious in how much faith you put into his situation. The Broncos should be better upfront, and the upgrade at quarterback cannot be understated. Phillip Lindsay stole the show in 2018, but a broken risk could be a harbinger of possible durability issues. Freeman was a fantasy darling entering 2018 drafts and left a sour taste behind, despite scoring three times in his first four NFL games. He’d go on to score two more over the next 10 appearances and miss a pair of games.
Take Freeman’s inclusion as a reminder to not give up on a player so soon — after just one year, it’s too early to write him off as a failure. His ADP is plenty fair to take a shot, but be strategic, particularly in PPR formats. He’s just not going to be a dynamic asset if Lindsay remains healthy; treat Freeman as a fine opportunity to buy insurance and as a nice speculative addition for non-Lindsay owners.
Peyton Barber | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 11:09 | Undervalued
Unless you’re jumping on the Ronald Jones bandwagon, Barber has a mostly obstacle-free path to significant playing time. The offense likes to check down to running backs, and while he’s not an elite receiver, Barber can hold his own. The Bucs’ passing game can open running lanes, and this line isn’t terrible by any stretch, especially with improved coaching.
Barber has experienced a declining yards-per-carry average in consecutive years, which is reason to question his ceiling. He’s not going to be an explosive player, but we’ve seen plenty of try-hard types do well through the years as an RB3. Don’t expect much more, but at the price of RB49 drafted right now, there’s just too much meat on the bone to not take a bite.
Justice Hill | Baltimore Ravens | ADP: 12:12 | Flier
We don’t need a crystal ball to know the Ravens will emphasize the run to protect Lamar Jackson and limit his passing attempts. He’s too raw still as a quarterback. It also affords them the ability to get him involved in designed misdirectional runs. Mark Ingram comes over as the primary handler. At 29, can he survive more than 230 or so carries? Behind him, Gus Edwards is just a dude, and Kenneth Dixon has remained a reserve for a reason. Hill is downright explosive and brings an Alvin Kamara-like element to the offense. He can catch out of the backfield and has the speed Ingram doesn’t offer.
Hill could be called a true sleeper in deeper leagues. For most gamers, he’s an RB4 or No. 5 flier due to his upside. At a minimum, monitor his offseason and reassess as draft time approaches in the late summer.
Ryquell Armstead | Jacksonville Jaguars | ADP: 14:09 | Flier
It’s a power-running mentality through a West Coast system. The backfield boasts Leonard Fournette, but after his lengthy injury history and a tumultuous past few months of red-flag incidents, just how much confidence can fantasy owners place in him? Armstead will enter behind veteran Alfred Blue — a plodder with no upside to his name. He ran 150 times in Houston last year and mustered a long of 17 yards. In five NFL seasons, Blue has topped 3.8 yards per carry just once.
Admittedly, there isn’t a great deal of talent here. Nevertheless, opportunity matters, especially at this position. Gamers are always looking for an edge, and rather than fight the slog of the waiver wire, adding Armstead in the final few rounds of your draft is a fine way to find an advantage.
Wide receivers
Chris Godwin | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 5:04 | Sleeper
Bruce Arians’ offense is designed to push the ball down the field, and Godwin is capable of playing well on all three levels of the route tree. Mike Evans draws the majority of the doubles, which frees up Godwin to exploit mismatches. No more Adam Humphries should inflate his target share in 2019.
Godwin started hot last year, posting double-digit PPR points in five of the first six games as Tampa rotated quarterbacks. Improving his consistency and target share from week to week will go a long way in establishing a breakout season, and given his lofty ADP, there won’t be much wiggle room for failure. Most gamers are on to him, so we’d be remiss to not include the burgeoning weapon.
Robby Anderson | New York Jets | ADP: 7:03 | Undervalued
Anderson was a hot thing in fantasy circles entering 2018 but failed to stay healthy and had legal questions swirling much of the way. He was able to get right toward the final month, and in the last three weeks of fantasy, Anderson’s best was on display. He escalated his receptions in Weeks 15 and 16, while boosting his yardage output in four straight contests. Sam Darnold should be improved in Year 2, and the offense will be more balanced with Le’Veon Bell in the mix.
Don’t underestimate the value of an offensive system change, either. Adam Gase has been known to get more out of his quarterbacks, which obviously helps Anderson’s fantasy stats in that event. As we saw in 2017 and last year, Anderson’s style of play can be streaky. Figuring out how to become more efficient will take him far in fantasy.
N’Keal Harry | New England Patriots | ADP: 7:12 | Sleeper
Already picking up the offense well, Harry enters as one of the most polished rookie receivers of the class. He fills an obvious need within the Patriots offense, and having even a 42-year-old Tom Brady throwing it to him is a huge advantage out of the gates. No Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and presumably Josh Gordon means someone will have to pick up the slack. Be assured the Patriots will do everything humanly possible to have the ASU rookie ready for Week 1.
Rookie receivers can be a fickle business, but isolating what works and using him to his strength (goal line, possession plays) will make Harry an early contributor in fantasy. There may be no better situation for him than this one, and few teams are as adept at game planning as the Pats. It would be great if the price tag was a little less, but don’t complain if he lives up to the hype.
Geronimo Allison | Green Bay Packers | ADP: 8:11 | Sleeper
We’ve seen a little bit of everything from Allison in his three pro seasons. Last year, the consistent theme was his inability to stay on the field. He was on the verge of a breakout season before missing 11 games due to a concussion (one game), hamstring strain (three contests) and a core injury that required surgery. He’s ready to go now, and Allison has to prove himself to a new coaching staff against a handful of receivers with roughly the same on-field experience, despite being younger.
Allison has the upside of being a fourth-year veteran, which means the game will be about as slow is it will ever get mentally, and it never hurts having Aaron Rodgers slinging the rock his way. Davante Adams also helps by drawing coverage, and Randall Cobb is now a Cowboy. There is no fair way to extrapolate his 2018 data … for whatever it is worth, Allison was on his way to a 76-catch, 1,155-yard, 7-TD season using the first four weeks of production. It wasn’t likely to finish that way, but you can at least see the potential. He’s a sneaky WR4 and an acceptable No. 3 in 14-team leagues. Bank on there being enough looks to go around to buoy no worse than flex consideration from the 6-foot-3 Allison.
Christian Kirk | Arizona Cardinals | ADP: 9:04 | Sleeper
I have mixed feelings about this one, mostly due to the system and my questions about how Kirk truly fits it. For now, I’m leaning sleeper due to his versatility and flashes as a rookie before getting hurt. Kyler Murray will be an upgrade at quarterback, even in his first season, and Arizona’s culture should be much more conducive to success. Kirk caught more than 63 percent of his targets, and that number jumps to 89.6 percent when uncatchable balls are factored. He is effective on the outside as well as in the slot (21.5 percent of his 2018 usage).
With a trio of rookie receivers, Chad Williams and Kevin White filling out the primary competition, Kirk is the logical choice for the second-highest target share behind Larry Fitzgerald among wideouts. And at Fitz’s age, nothing is a guarantee in terms of his health. Kirk is not a lock, given all of the change in his world requiring acclimation. This offense will throw and throw some more, and his ability in space should lead to plenty of screen plays — look for a moderate volume of catches with decent yardage but somewhat depressed TD results.
Dede Westbrook | Jacksonville Jaguars: ADP: 10:07 | Sleeper
Nick Foles is a definite upgrade at quarterback over Blake Bortles, and the journeyman passer has done well for himself when targeting slot receivers. Westbrook played 73.9 percent of his 2018 snaps from the inside receiver position. Entering his third year, Westbrook has only 23 games worth of NFL experience, however, so a major step forward is possibly another year away. He’s a more capable big-play type than his stats indicate, and this receiving corps lacks a go-to weapon.
Drafting a potential breakout player in Round 10 is a low-risk venture. Reaching for him isn’t recommended, and there’s a good chance he’ll fall well past his ADP in more casual setups. Westbrook is a possibly strong WR3 at a discount price.
Anthony Miller | Chicago Bears | ADP: 12:03 | Undervalued
Miller didn’t get a great deal of chances as a rookie, seeing only 54 looks in 14 games played. His value (finished as WR61) was due to scoring seven touchdowns on 33 grabs. Expecting such a low-volume, high-output ratio this year is unrealistic. Miller has a reasonably good change at doubling his catches in Year 2, and he’s a better fit for the system than Allen Robinson as the de facto WR1 of this lot.
Chicago’s offensive design under Matt Nagy isn’t particularly easy to digest, especially for a rookie, so natural maturation should be expected. Watch his offseason progress before investing more than his ADP suggests. He likely will climb as the summer comes to a close. That’s a small price to pay for a weekly flex option.
Donte Moncrief | Pittsburgh Steelers | ADP: 13:05 | Undervalued
The veteran wideout spent time in the offseason with Ben Roethlisberger to in an attempt to build chemistry. The presumption is the 25-year-old Moncrief will settle in as the opening No. 2 in the generic pecking order behind JuJu Smith-Schuster. He’ll see summer competition for action from a trimmed down James Washington and rookie Diontae Johnson. Eli Rogers will be worked in, as well. Following a promising second year with the Colts, Moncrief battled injuries in 2016 and ’17. He managed to play in every contest last year but was mired in the mishap that was Jacksonville’s season.
Greener pastures, with a bona fide quarterback again throwing his way, Moncrief going at the tail end of drafts is just the situation gamers look back at in six months and wonder how he wasn’t drafted earlier. Don’t get caught up on the past — he’s talented, healthy, and in a great situation in what will be only his age-26 season as a sixth-year vet. There’s tremendous ground to be made up with the trade of Antonio Brown, so looks shouldn’t be an issue. Moncrief is a roster-filler at this price point and legitimately could emerge as a WR2 some weeks.
Robert Foster | Buffalo Bills | ADP: 14:05 | Flier
Age 25 in only his second year, Foster will be overlooked in many leagues, particularly the casual circles. He’s a big-play threat, as evidenced by averaging 20.1 yards a grab in 2018. Having Josh Allen’s field-stretching arm strength makes Foster all that much more dangerous. The Alabama product scored a trio of TDs on just 26 snags, and he really didn’t see meaningful action until Week 10. Five of his seven outings resulted in double-digit fantasy points.
The Bills made wholesale changes at wideout in the offseason, and the offense enters its second year in Brian Daboll’s system with Allen being a sophomore on the rise. Players of Foster’s profile tend to be streaky, and he’ll compete with John Brown’s 4.3 speed for the bulk of Buffalo’s downfield action.
Dontrelle Inman | New England Patriots | ADP: N/A | Flier
His best year to date was in 2016 with the Chargers, going for 58-810-4. Inman’s last 18 games with Chicago and Indy have produced a line of 53-647-4. He came on strong to close out 2018, finding the end zone three times in the last four games (including playoffs) and even showed capable of playing out the slot. New England can use every bit of help it can get from the position, and while N’Keal Harry is included in this space as a sleeper, there is plenty of room for Inman to make noteworthy contributions, too.
In the final round or two of drafts, gamers could do much worse than testing the waters with a gamble pick on Inman finding a worthwhile role in the New England offense. There’s only upside at play here.
Tight ends
Evan Engram | New York Giants | ADP: 6:05 | Undervalued
Is he truly undervalued? Debatable. Round 6 is about when I start thinking about the position. It’s a top-heavy year, so if you don’t get a Kelce, Ertz or Kittle, then it becomes a little dicey. Engram has proven he can do it when healthy, and there will be a ton of looks open with Odell Beckham now a Brown.
Say Eli Manning starts every game … we know they have chemistry. If Daniel Jones is the guy at some point this year, rookies tend to rely heavily on tight ends. Engram’s biggest enemy will be Saquon Barkley scarfing short-area passes. Don’t hesitate to reach a round for Engram if your aim is to avoid playing the matchup game at the position.
Chris Herndon | New York Jets | ADP: 14:01 | Sleeper
Much like with Engram, having a dynamic pass-catching running back could be a problem. However, just like Engram, Herndon’s athleticism allows him to play down the field and flex out wide. As a rookie in 2018, he quietly finished with 502 yards and four scores on 39 catches in 14 games. Herndon and Sam Darnold have had time to build chemistry. The entire offense should be improved, mainly due to Le’Veon Bell, Kelechi Osemele and Adam Gase.
In such a volatile year for tight ends, Herndon makes for a fine TE2 gamble or a fringe No. 1, just as long as you can stomach playing the matchup game. There is an outside chance he forces his way into the weekly lineup situation. Based on last year, all it would take is roughly 600 yards and six TDs to be a top-10 tight end.
Jimmy Graham | Green Bay Packers | ADP: 14:07 | Undervalued
The 2018 season was Graham’s worst since his rookie campaign, and gamers have taken notice. Don’t be one of those gamers. Graham caught a respectable 55 balls for 636 yards — improving his average by 2.5 yards a catch over the previous season. The biggest issue came in the way of only two touchdowns scored in an offense that wasn’t known for the position being a substantial factor. It is in the new Green Bay system, and it’s almost laughable to think he will score only twice again.
Graham is still just 32 years old, and Green Bay doesn’t have much in the way of proven pass-catchers behind Davante Adams. Graham finished as the 12th-best TE in PPR last year and is going as the 20th chosen in 2019’s early drafts. Think about it this way: The No. 7 PPR TE last year (Kyle Rudolph) caught 11 more passes for two fewer yards and scored just two more times than Graham. Grabbing 11 more balls seems like a stretch, but scoring three more four more times isn’t out of the question at all.
