That we are faced with an unusual Belmont Stakes field for the $1.5-million 2018 running of the final leg of the Triple Crown on Saturday afternoon is something that we’ve come to accept, as the Derby and Preakness champion Justify has put on his best imitation of Alexander the Great, marching through any sort of country to get to the slaughter. The draw for the Belmont’s post positions has resulted in Justify on the rail, with Bravazo and Hofburg, his hottest challengers according to the odds, at least, breaking just to his outside, from post positons three and four, respectively. Longshot Free Drop Billy, at 30-1, will break from the two-hole, immediately to Justify’s right.
For the top-tier horses in the field, the Belmont’s morning line does not differ hugely from the early Vegas odds. Justify is parked at 4-5, Hofburg slightly down at 9-2, and Bravazo is at 8-1. Bluntly put, we shall be debating until post time, and arguably even after that, whether Justify’s rail position has helped or hurt the front-running Derby and Preakness champion’s chances. Whether you’re a connection, a player, or a fan, the fun part on Saturday will be that we just won’t know until we know.
Post Position, Horse, Morning Line
- 1) Justify, 4-5
- 2) Free Drop Billy, 30-1
- 3) Bravazo, 8-1
- 4) Hofburg, 9-2
- 5) Restoring Hope, 30-1
- 6) Gronkowski, 12-1
- 7) Tenfold, 12-1
- 8) Vino Rosso, 30-1
- 9) Noble Indy, 12-1
- 10)Blended Citizen, 15-1
As in Las Vegas last week and this, where Bovada had him at 4-1, the lightly-raced Hofburg is still coming up a second in the Belmont oddsmakers’ eyes at 9-2, well lower than Bravazo, here at 8-1, who nearly took Justify down at Pimlico. What the oddsmakers are doing there on Hofburg is betting the freshness, in other words, the fact that Hofburg gave the Preakness a bye, while the brutal contest rather tore down, or at least supposedly taxed, its winner and everybody who ran against him in it. But did that happen? In subsequent workouts at Churchill Downs, where Justify and his team holed up to recuperate after the Preakness, his assistant trainer said that Justify was “breathing fire.”
Here to help us parse the condition and depth of the Belmont field is the Bluegrass Wise Man ™, a Kentucky horseman who has been so generous with his horse sense in Triple Crown seasons past. Full disclosure:The Wise Man ™, an owner, has no horses racing in this year’s Belmont Stakes. He will, however, be playing it, which wisdom we shall be tapping heavily.
Let’s get this off the desk right at the top. Will the rail matter?
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: I doubt Bob (Baffert) really loves his draw, but I doubt he’s going to lose any sleep over it, if that’s what you’re asking. Justify is still Justify. But that said, depending on the break, the rail can give some people the heebie-jeebies. With a full field as in the Derby, I think it’s safe to say that you don’t want that spot. The rail can get a little claustrophobic, sort of like a rugby scrum, what with everybody crashing down on you. But this Belmont is relatively short-fielded, and Justify remains more or less the dude that likes to be out in front, so I don’t see it mattering all that much. Of course, Free Drop Billy, who’s breaking from the two-hole, could freak out and cause a train wreck, or any of the others could. There can always be a disastrous break. But at the end of the day, I think what’s gonna matter more for Justify is his ability to gather himself, find his spot and get into a rhythm that will take him the mile-and-a-half. Can you get run into a little bit more on the rail? Sure. But it’s also a spot you can scoot out from with nobody on your left.
So, you’re not gonna defect from Justify to Hofburg or Bravazo or something. Just checking, like the NOAA pilots take the barometric pressure readings of a hurricane to see if it’s weakening.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: I’m not saying I’m not gonna bet Hofburg, and I still like Hofburg. But no, not defecting or reducing the call. To address the chatter about whether the Preakness took it out of Justify, I will direct your attention to his first workout after that race. At Churchill. Ten days after that Preakness, okay? Ten days. That’s short. Most trainers give ‘em a couple weeks, or twenty days, or something. So, this wasn’t Baffert saying, okay, it’s day ten, let’s push him, this was the horse telling them, I gotta get out and run. So they let him. I think they had Martin Garcia on him that morning, but anyway, he only did a half-mile. May 29th. He went 46:80, which was the best of 43 that morning, and you can see Martin trying to get his feet on the dash trying to slow him down. That is not a gutted horse. That is a fit horse.
Todd Pletcher’s horses, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy, drew the outside.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Well, at least they don’t have sixteen or seventeen other horses inside of them, like they did in the Derby. Which is to say, they got to race in the Derby, but they really didn’t get to race. I think the slop and their post positions outside just combined to keep ‘em out of it. I don’t think these post positions will matter that much. What Todd will be hoping is that they just break clean and get steady. It’s a long race, and the track does not favor speed. It favors being able to find a pace and get over the ground. The Big Sandy. Long Island sand. We’ve said it before, but that track and those big turns can really tire ‘em out.
